Coinspeaker partnered with ICOBox to provide our readers with this weekly analysis conducted by Professor Dima Kornilov and Dima Zaitsev devoted to cryptocurrency and digital assets markets.

Information as of October 22, 2017 (results for the period from July 1, 2017)

This report was created by:

This report presents data on the cryptocurrency and ICO market changes that took place in the third quarter, with special emphasis on an analysis of the changes that took place during the third week of Q4 2017.

  1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month, quarter). Market trends.

     1.1 General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, quarter).

Table 1.1. Trends in the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from August 1, 2017 to October 22, 2017

# Parameter 1-Aug-17 1-Sep-17 MoM, % 1-Oct-17 MoM, % 8-Oct-17 WoW, % 15-Oct-17 WoW, % 22-Oct-17 WoW, %
1 Total market capitalization, USD billion 89.54 171.64 91.69% 147.87 -13.85% 149.91 1.36% 176.77 15.20% 172.59 -0.36%
2 Altcoin market capitalization, USD billion 45.23 95.11 110.28% 75.91 -20.19% 76.33 0.55% 79.76 4.30% 72.15 -10.55%
Altcoin dominance, % 50.51% 55.41% 9.70% 51.34% -7.35% 50.92% -0.82% 45.12% -12.85% 41.80% -10.15%
3 Bitcoin price, $ 2689.44 4627.23 72.05% 4341.05 -6.18% 4429.67 2.00% 5835.96 24.10% 6036.66 6.88%
Bitcoin market capitalization, USD billion 44.31 76.53 72.71% 72.05 -5.86% 73.58 2.08% 97.01 24.16% 100.44 6.96%
Bitcoin dominance, % 49.49% 44.59% -9.90% 48.72% 9.27% 49.08% 0.73% 54.88% 10.57% 58.20% 7.29%
4 Ethereum price, $ 200.97 355.64 76.96% 301.55 -15.21% 311.06 3.06% 339.53 8.39% 300.55 -11.74%
Ethereum market capitalization, USD billion 18.82 33.57 78.37% 28.62 -14.76% 29.55 3.17% 32.29 8.49% 28.62 -11.58%
Ethereum dominance, % 21.02% 19.56% -6.95% 19.35% -1.07% 19.71% 1.83% 18.27% -7.91% 16.59% -11.18%
5 Litecoin price, $ 40.89 79.97 95.57% 55.14 -31.05% 52.49 -5.05% 64.13 18.15% 58.27 -13.71%
Litecoin market capitalization, USD billion 2.13 4.21 97.65% 2.93 -30.36% 2.80 -4.83% 3.42 18.29% 3.12 -13.59%
Litecoin dominance, % 2.38% 2.45% 3.11% 1.98% -19.08% 1.87% -6.27% 1.94% 3.65% 1.81% -13.19%
6 Smith + Crown Index n/a 10345 n/a 9147 -13.10% 9289 1.53% 11056 15.98% 11250 1.72%
7 Volume (24h) 3 Crypto, USD million 3030 3757 123.99% 1566 -139.94% 2137 26.73% 2892 26.10% 2438 -18.63%
Market Cap 3 Crypto, USD million 72942 123740 169.64% 108240 -14.32% 112324 3.64% 139227 19.32% 137191 -1.48%
ZAK-3 crypto index 4.15% 3.04% 1.45% 1.45% -109.89% 1.90% 23.96% 2.08% 8.40% 1.78% -17.05%
8 Volume (24h) 5 crypto, USD million n/a 5702 n/a 1830 -211.57% 2441 25.04% 3479 29.82% 2890 -20.37%
Market cap 5 crypto, USD million n/a 137216 n/a 118380 -15.91% 121126 2.27% 148035 18.18% 145713 -1.59%
ZAK-5 crypto index n/a 4.16% n/a 1.55% -168.80% 2.02% 23.30% 2.35% 14.23% 1.98% -18.48%

* Data as of October 23, 2017, 00:00 UTC

** ZAK-5 Crypto index calculated from September 1, 2017, since the Bitcoin Cash cryptocurrency only entered the exchange on August 1, 2017, after the Bitcoin hard fork.

Data source: coinmarketcap.com, https://www.smithandcrown.com

In the third week of October (October 16-22, 2017) total cryptocurrency market capitalization varied over a range from USD 176.77 to USD 156.5 billion, and at the end of the week equaled USD 172.59 billion (see Table 1.1).

During the period from October 16-22, the Bitcoin exchange rate increased by 6.88%, while the Ethereum and Litecoin exchange rates fell by 11.74% and 13.71%, respectively.

Therefore, a shift in dominance in favor of Bitcoin was seen on the market over the past week, with its contribution to total cryptocurrency market capitalization increasing from 54.88% to 58.2%. Accordingly, altcoin dominance (%) decreased from 45.12% to 41.8%.

Last week the Bitcoin exchange rate appreciated from $5,835.96 to $6,036.66. Since the beginning of the month, the exchange rate has ranged from $4,164.05 (on October 5, 2017) to $6,194.88 (on October 21, 2017), i.e. by more than $2,000 (Table 1.4.а).

The Smith + Crown Index for September fell from 10,345 to 9,147 due to market fluctuations, but during the third week of October it increased to 11,250.

To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-3 Crypto and ZAK-5 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.2, 1.3. For example, on October 16, 2017, and October 18, 2017, the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the three dominate cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple) equaled $3,664 and $3,360 million (Table 1.3). All told, the daily values of the ZAK-3 Crypto and ZAK-5 Crypto indices exceeded 2.5% of the market capitalization of the analyzed cryptocurrencies. The result of this increase in demand for cryptocurrencies was a significant change in their prices.

Table 1.2. Daily ZAK-3 Crypto index calculation (from October 1, 2017, to October 22, 2017)

Crypto   Bitcoin (BTC) Ethereum (ETH) Ripple (XRP) 3 Crypto
  Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Volume (24h) 3 crypto Market cap 3 crypto ZAK-3 crypto index
Date $ USD million USD million $ USD million USD million $ USD million USD million USD million USD million %
Oct 22, 2017 6036.7 2 035 100 438 300.6 327 28 625 0.2110 76 8 129 2 438 137 191 1.8%
Oct 21, 2017 5996.8 2 207 99 763 303.6 408 28 907 0.2102 117 8 099 2 732 136 769 2.0%
Oct 20, 2017 5708.1 2 354 94 948 308.1 397 29 326 0.2151 183 8 288 2 934 132 562 2.2%
Oct 19, 2017 5583.7 1 781 92 867 314.5 350 29 938 0.2182 305 8 409 2 435 131 214 1.9%
Oct 18, 2017 5603.8 2 399 93 190 316.9 606 30 161 0.2312 354 8 909 3 360 132 260 2.5%
Oct 17, 2017 5741.6 1 822 95 469 333.5 510 31 728 0.2561 411 9 868 2 743 137 065 2.0%
Oct 16, 2017 5687.6 2 008 94 559 336.7 693 32 029 0.2634 963 10 149 3 664 136 737 2.7%
Oct 15, 2017 5836.0 1 976 97 012 339.5 635 32 292 0.2575 280 9 923 2 892 139 227 2.1%
Oct 14, 2017 5643.5 1 669 93 803 338.9 517 32 222 0.2612 211 10 063 2 397 136 088 1.8%
Oct 13, 2017 5464.2 3 615 90 812 304.1 1 304 28 911 0.2483 399 9 584 5 319 129 307 4.1%
Oct 12, 2017 4829.6 2 792 80 257 303.5 528 28 851 0.2650 245 10 231 3 564 119 339 3.0%
Oct 11, 2017 4789.3 1 222 79 578 301.2 264 28 626 0.2607 161 10 062 1 648 118 266 1.4%
Oct 10, 2017 4776.2 1 597 79 352 297.6 360 28 281 0.2528 384 9 758 2 341 117 392 2.0%
Oct 9, 2017 4614.5 1 969 76 657 308.7 559 29 328 0.2788 610 10 759 3 138 116 744 2.7%
Oct 8, 2017 4429.7 1 314 73 575 311.1 293 29 551 0.2383 530 9 198 2 137 112 324 1.9%
Oct 7, 2017 4369.4 907 72 565 308.9 342 29 340 0.2340 78 9 030 1 327 110 936 1.2%
Oct 6, 2017 4324.5 1 070 71 811 295.2 319 28 031 0.2377 167 9 115 1 556 108 957 1.4%
Oct 5, 2017 4229.9 1 162 70 234 292.8 254 27 800 0.2156 404 8 266 1 820 106 300 1.7%
Oct 4, 2017 4319.4 1 117 71 713 292.8 258 27 794 0.2032 124 7 792 1 498 107 299 1.4%
Oct 3, 2017 4408.5 1 288 73 181 297.5 322 28 239 0.2032 49 7 792 1 658 109 212 1.5%
Oct 2, 2017 4395.8 1 432 72 963 302.5 339 28 709 0.2061 77 7 902 1 849 109 573 1.7%
Oct 1, 2017 4341.1 1 208 72 047 301.6 306 28 615 0.1976 51 7 578 1 566 108 240 1.4%

* Data as of October 23, 2017, 00:00 UTC

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the five dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash) at the end of last week totaled USD 2,890 million (Tables 1.1, 1.3), i.e. 2% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-3 Crypto and ZAK-5 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.2 and 1.3.

Table 1.3. Daily ZAK-5 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.2)

Crypto Litecoin (LTC) Bitcoin Cash (BCH) 5 Crypto
  Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Price Open Volume (24h) Market cap Volume (24h)

5 crypto

Market cap

5 crypto

ZAK-5 crypto index
Date $ USD million USD million $ USD million USD million USD million USD million %
October 22, 2017 58.27 97 3 116 323.5 356 5 405 2 890 145 713 2.0%
October 21, 2017 60.3 140 3 224 326.75 130 5 459 3 001 145 452 2.1%
October 20, 2017 59.81 151 3 197 330.9 160 5 528 3 245 141 287 2.3%
October 19, 2017 60.82 161 3 250 339.27 196 5 667 2 791 140 131 2.0%
October 18, 2017 59.59 284 3 183 373.65 477 6 241 4 121 141 684 2.9%
October 17, 2017 64.67 205 3 454 313.7 1 008 5 240 3 956 145 758 2.7%
October 16, 2017 65.72 200 3 509 315.26 118 5 265 3 982 145 511 2.7%
October 15, 2017 64.13 454 3 423 322.42 133 5 385 3 479 148 035 2.4%
October 14, 2017 59.41 313 3 170 321.54 164 5 370 2 874 144 627 2.0%
October 13, 2017 60.55 357 3 230 314.15 288 5 243 5 964 137 780 4.3%
October 12, 2017 50.89 341 2 714 315.47 262 5 262 4 168 127 315 3.3%
October 11, 2017 50.75 57 2 706 320.2 132 5 341 1 837 126 313 1.5%
October 10, 2017 50.15 90 2 673 313.22 368 5 224 2 799 125 289 2.2%
October 9, 2017 53.08 152 2 829 342.76 288 5 716 3 579 125 289 2.9%
October 8, 2017 52.49 101 2 797 360.09 204 6 005 2 441 121 126 2.0%
October 7, 2017 52.14 52 2 777 363.6 91 6 063 1 470 119 776 1.2%
October 6, 2017 51.64 59 2 749 355.44 182 5 927 1 797 117 633 1.5%
October 5, 2017 51.4 70 2 736 358.42 268 5 971 2 158 115 008 1.9%
October 4, 2017 52.28 77 2 782 404.2 252 6 730 1 827 116 811 1.6%
October 3, 2017 53.39 89 2 841 421.79 130 7 022 1 877 119 075 1.6%
October 2, 2017 54.55 95 2 901 415.87 220 6 922 2 164 119 396 1.8%
October 1, 2017 55.14 100 2 932 433.38 164 7 208 1 830 118 380 1.5%

 

The high trading volume (Volume 24h) relative to market capitalization contributes to increased volatility and wild price changes on the cryptocurrency market. One of the previous reports considered the relative trends in the Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates from the start of the year. The graph below shows their price trends from the start of October (fig. 1; Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b).

Figure 1. Price trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-1

Figure 1 shows that the Ethereum exchange rate fell last week, against the background of an increase in the Bitcoin exchange rate. The Byzantium hard fork, aimed at improving the functioning of the platform and increasing the speed of the network, took place in the Ethereum network on October 16, 2017. During the days leading up to the hard fork, the cryptocurrency’s exchange rate demonstrated a significant increase of 11-12%; however, starting on October 16, 2017, it began to fall. At present, it has rebounded to its level at the beginning of the month (around $300).

Right now, two potential new Bitcoin hard forks, which would, of course, impact the demand for this cryptocurrency, are the subject of wide speculation (see the previous reports).

Below the trends in the Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash exchange rates are considered (see Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b; fig. 2).

Figure 2. Price trends of Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH)

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-2

Figure 2 illustrates the heightened interest of market participants in Bitcoin and the fall in demand for the alternative cryptocurrency Bitcoin Cash that has been observed since the start of October 2017. However, there was a sharp increase of 18.5% in demand for Bitcoin Cash on October 17, 2017. The exchange rate increased from $313.70 to $373.65, but then gradually fell back to $323.50. A certain dependence between these cryptocurrencies is discernable, owing mainly to alternative contributions (partially speculative) that reflect how quickly and stably the network is functioning. The much higher level of market capitalization of Bitcoin compared to Bitcoin Cash (more than 18.5 times higher) should also be noted.

Below is an analysis of the daily change in the Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum exchange rates from the beginning of October 2017 (Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b, 1.4.c).

Table 1.4.а. Daily change in the Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from October 1, 2017, to October 22, 2017)

Date Open, $ High, $ Low, $ Range, $ Close, $ DoD, % D, % Index, rate to start of year Volume (24h), USD million Market cap, USD million
October 22, 2017 6036.66 6076.26 5792.34 283.92 6008.42 99.6% -0.4 6.02 2 035 100 438
October 21, 2017 5996.79 6194.88 5965.07 229.81 6031.60 100.3% 0.3 6.04 2 207 99 763
October 20, 2017 5708.11 6060.11 5627.23 432.88 6011.45 105.3% 5.3 6.02 2 354 94 948
October 19, 2017 5583.74 5744.35 5531.06 213.29 5708.52 102.1% 2.1 5.72 1 781 92 867
October 18, 2017 5603.82 5603.82 5151.44 452.38 5590.69 99.7% -0.3 5.60 2 399 93 190
October 17, 2017 5741.58 5800.35 5472.72 327.63 5605.51 97.9% -2.1 5.61 1 822 95 469
October 16, 2017 5687.57 5776.23 5544.21 232.02 5725.59 100.8% 0.8 5.74 2 008 94 559
October 15, 2017 5835.96 5852.48 5478.61 373.87 5678.19 97.4% -2.6 5.69 1 976 97 012
October 14, 2017 5643.53 5837.70 5591.64 246.06 5831.79 103.3% 3.3 5.84 1 669 93 803
October 13, 2017 5464.16 5840.30 5436.85 403.45 5647.21 103.7% 3.7 5.66 3 615 90 812
October 12, 2017 4829.58 5446.91 4822.00 624.91 5446.91 112.9% 12.9 5.46 2 792 80 257
October 11, 2017 4789.25 4873.73 4751.63 122.10 4826.48 100.9% 0.9 4.83 1 222 79 578
October 10, 2017 4776.21 4922.17 4765.10 157.07 4781.99 100.2% 0.2 4.79 1 597 79 352
October 9, 2017 4614.52 4878.71 4564.25 314.46 4772.02 103.5% 3.5 4.78 1 969 76 657
October 8, 2017 4429.67 4624.14 4405.64 218.50 4610.48 104.1% 4.1 4.62 1 314 73 575
October 7, 2017 4369.35 4443.88 4321.05 122.83 4426.89 101.3% 1.3 4.43 907 72 565
October 6, 2017 4324.46 4413.27 4320.53 92.74 4370.81 101.0% 1.0 4.38 1 070 71 811
October 5, 2017 4229.88 4362.64 4164.05 198.59 4328.41 102.3% 2.3 4.34 1 162 70 234
October 4, 2017 4319.37 4352.31 4210.42 141.89 4229.36 98.0% -2.0 4.24 1 117 71 713
October 3, 2017 4408.46 4432.47 4258.89 173.58 4317.48 97.9% -2.1 4.32 1 288 73 181
October 2, 2017 4395.81 4470.23 4377.46 92.77 4409.32 100.1% 0.1 4.42 1 432 72 963
October 1, 2017 4341.05 4403.74 4269.81 133.93 4403.74 101.5% 1.5 4.41 1 208 72 047

* Data as of October 23, 2017, 00:00 UTC

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Table 1.4.b. Daily change in the Ethereum (ETH) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from October 1, 2017, to October 22, 2017)

Date Open, $ High, $ Low, $ Range, $ Close, $ DoD, % D, % Index, rate to start of year Volume (24h), USD million Market cap, USD million
October 22, 2017 300.55 305.50 292.81 12.69 295.45 98.4% -1.6 36.16 327 28 625
October 21, 2017 303.57 303.93 291.77 12.16 300.19 98.7% -1.3 36.74 408 28 907
October 20, 2017 308.05 311.44 303.49 7.95 304.01 98.7% -1.3 37.21 397 29 326
October 19, 2017 314.54 316.71 305.83 10.88 308.09 98.0% -2.0 37.71 350 29 938
October 18, 2017 316.94 317.24 290.64 26.60 314.32 99.1% -0.9 38.47 606 30 161
October 17, 2017 333.48 333.48 311.79 21.69 317.08 95.1% -4.9 38.81 510 31 728
October 16, 2017 336.71 349.35 332.04 17.31 333.38 99.0% -1.0 40.81 693 32 029
October 15, 2017 339.53 342.72 320.43 22.29 336.60 99.1% -0.9 41.20 635 32 292
October 14, 2017 338.85 347.98 334.70 13.28 339.63 100.3% 0.3 41.57 517 32 222
October 13, 2017 304.08 348.60 299.66 48.94 338.76 111.4% 11.4 41.46 1 304 28 911
October 12, 2017 303.50 309.15 303.29 5.86 304.14 100.2% 0.2 37.23 528 28 851
October 11, 2017 301.18 304.39 299.10 5.29 303.46 101.2% 1.2 37.14 264 28 626
October 10, 2017 297.60 306.15 293.17 12.98 299.87 100.8% 0.8 36.70 360 28 281
October 9, 2017 308.67 309.31 288.19 21.12 297.39 96.4% -3.6 36.40 559 29 328
October 8, 2017 311.06 312.54 308.03 4.51 308.61 99.2% -0.8 37.77 293 29 551
October 7, 2017 308.89 313.13 304.98 8.15 311.12 100.8% 0.8 38.08 342 29 340
October 6, 2017 295.15 308.84 294.95 13.89 308.59 104.3% 4.3 37.77 319 28 031
October 5, 2017 292.77 298.04 288.84 9.20 295.86 101.1% 1.1 36.21 254 27 800
October 4, 2017 292.75 299.39 290.89 8.50 292.66 100.1% 0.1 35.82 258 27 794
October 3, 2017 297.48 300.11 288.13 11.98 292.46 98.3% -1.7 35.80 322 28 239
October 2, 2017 302.48 302.92 294.58 8.34 297.48 98.4% -1.6 36.41 339 28 709
October 1, 2017 301.55 303.19 295.06 8.13 302.34 100.3% 0.3 37.01 306 28 615

* Data as of October 23, 2017, 00:00 UTC

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

During the period from October 1-22, 2017, the Bitcoin exchange rate increased from $4,341.05 to $6,008.42, while the Ethereum exchange rate dropped from $301.55 to $295.45 (Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b), with the largest appreciation in these two cryptocurrencies being seen in the second week of the month. The largest fluctuations in the daily range (Range) of the Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates were $624.91 (on October 12, 2017) and $48.94 (on October 13, 2017), respectively. The price trends are shown in figures 3, 4.

The Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates have grown by a factor of 6.02 and 36.16, respectively, since the start of 2017 (see Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b).

Figure 3, 4. Price trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-34

As can be seen from figures 2 and 3, an increase in the Bitcoin exchange rate and a slight decrease in the Ethereum exchange rate has been observed from the start of the month. The Ethereum exchange rate also fell last week, apparently due for the most part to the instability of the network due to the testing of the new Ethereum software after the hard fork. Due to this fact, we believe that the purchase of this cryptocurrency is unadvisable until it stabilizes. After the stabilization phase, which could last several days, the resumption of Ethereum’s upward trend is possible.

Table 1.4.c. Daily change in the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from October 1, 2017, to October 22, 2017)

Date Open, $ High, $ Low, $ Range, $ Close, $ DoD, % D, % Index, rate to start of year Volume (24h), USD million Market cap, USD million
October 22, 2017 323.5 355.5 323.5 32.0 331.7 102.6% 2.6 0.87 356 5 405
October 21, 2017 326.8 328.5 317.5 11.0 323.4 98.8% -1.2 0.85 130 5 459
October 20, 2017 330.9 333.0 323.1 9.9 327.4 99.0% -1.0 0.86 160 5 528
October 19, 2017 339.3 339.3 326.3 13.0 330.8 97.5% -2.5 0.87 196 5 667
October 18, 2017 373.7 376.2 313.8 62.4 339.2 91.2% -8.8 0.89 477 6 241
October 17, 2017 313.7 395.0 309.6 85.3 371.7 118.5% 18.5 0.98 1 008 5 240
October 16, 2017 315.3 318.0 310.5 7.5 313.6 99.6% -0.4 0.83 118 5 265
October 15, 2017 322.4 323.6 307.7 15.9 315.0 97.8% -2.2 0.83 133 5 385
October 14, 2017 321.5 327.4 317.4 10.1 322.0 100.2% 0.2 0.85 164 5 370
October 13, 2017 314.2 323.1 304.4 18.7 321.5 102.6% 2.6 0.85 288 5 243
October 12, 2017 315.5 330.1 310.7 19.4 313.2 99.5% -0.5 0.82 262 5 262
October 11, 2017 320.2 321.3 312.1 9.1 314.9 97.9% -2.1 0.83 132 5 341
October 10, 2017 313.2 352.0 311.7 40.3 321.6 102.4% 2.4 0.85 368 5 224
October 9, 2017 342.8 342.8 289.0 53.7 314.2 91.8% -8.2 0.83 288 5 716
October 8, 2017 360.1 362.5 337.0 25.5 342.2 94.9% -5.1 0.90 204 6 005
October 7, 2017 363.6 364.9 356.1 8.8 360.8 99.4% -0.6 0.95 91 6 063
October 6, 2017 355.4 371.3 355.0 16.3 363.0 102.0% 2.0 0.96 182 5 927
October 5, 2017 358.4 371.2 348.5 22.7 355.8 99.2% -0.8 0.94 268 5 971
October 4, 2017 404.2 404.5 354.6 49.9 358.5 88.7% -11.3 0.94 252 6 730
October 3, 2017 421.8 421.8 395.7 26.1 404.2 96.0% -4.0 1.06 130 7 022
October 2, 2017 415.9 430.9 411.8 19.0 421.2 101.5% 1.5 1.11 220 6 922
October 1, 2017 433.4 436.9 415.2 21.8 415.2 96.0% -4.0 1.09 164 7 208

* Data as of October 23, 2017, 00:00 UTC

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The Bitcoin Cash exchange rate depreciated from $433.40 to $331.70 (Table 1.4.c) during the analyzed period (October 1-22, 2017), with the largest fluctuation in the daily range equaling $85.30 (on October 17,2017).

The total Bitcoin Cash exchange rate index from August 1, 2017, equaled 0.87 (the rate of $380 at the close of the day on August 1, 2017, was taken as the basis for the calculation), i.e. during the period after the Bitcoin hard fork and the appearance of the new Bitcoin Cash cryptocurrency its exchange rate has fallen by 13%, while the Bitcoin exchange rate has appreciated over the same period by 121%.

 1.2 Market trends

The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from July 2, 2017, to October 22, 2017, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1-1.5)*.

Table 1.5. Legends and descriptions of the figures

Global Figures Figure** Description
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization, USD million Fig. 1.1 This figure shows cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization trends from July 2, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % compared to the beginning of the year) Fig. 1.1 This figure shows the % change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization compared to January 1, 2017.
Change in the market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period) Fig. 1.2 This figure shows the weekly change in USD million (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % compared to the previous period) Fig. 1.2 This figure shows the % of weekly change (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets Fig.1.3 This figure shows the trends in the increase of the number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on cryptocurrency exchanges. On January 1, 2017, their number was 617, and as of October 22, 2017, this number had already reached 1,123.
Average market capitalization, USD million Fig. 1.3 This figure reflects the growth in the average cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017, i.e. the ratio between the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets and their number.
Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization Fig. 1.4, 1.5 This figure shows the time trend (forecast) change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization.

* Data as of October 23, 2017, 00:00 UTC

** The figures below present average data for 24 hours

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization**

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-1-1

** Average daily data

Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from July 2, 2017, to October 22, 2017. Over this period, the market capitalization grew from $94,716 million to $171,232 million, a growth of 867% relative to the start of the year. Over the past week the total market capitalization decreased from $174,167 million to $171,232 million (as of October 22, 2017). The decrease was caused primarily by a reduction in the market capitalization of altcoins from USD 79.76 to USD 72.15 billion, while the capitalization of Bitcoin increased from USD 97.01 to 100.44 billion, i.e. one can conclude that there has been a partial transfer of funds from alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin.

Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-1-2

Despite the significant growth in cryptocurrency market capitalization in Q3 2017 and over the entire year to date, the market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. Significant drops occurred over the first two weeks of September (September 3-10 and September 11-17, 2017), when the market lost $25,203 million (-15.1%) and $20,817 million (-15%), respectively, and over the week of July 9-16, 2017 (-28%). The highest growth rate in Q3 was 39% (the week of July 16-23, 2017). Over the past week (October 16-22, 2017), total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by $2,935 million or 2%.

Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-1-3

The total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets listed on exchanges during the third quarter grew from 881 to 1,123. Their number increased by 26 over the past week alone. At the same time, the average cryptocurrency and digital asset capitalization decreased from $158.8 to $152.5 million over the analyzed period.

Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-1-4

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-1-5

In the first week of October (October 2-8, 2017), the market stabilized after the fairly sharp fluctuations (drops) in September, with gradual growth in its capitalization being seen. The second week of October (October 9-15, 2017) was characterized by market growth of 16%. In the third week of October (October 16-22, 2017) the market adjusted downward by -2%. Many experts predict a significant increase in the exchange rates of the main cryptocurrencies by the end of the year. We believe that cryptocurrency exchange rates will continue to grow, but this growth will mainly be seen among the ten cryptocurrencies with the largest capitalization, with the Bitcoin exchange rate, in particular, exceeding $10,000 by the end of the current year. However, the risk of market fluctuations will remain.

  1. General analysis of the ICO market (by week, month).

      2.1 Brief overview of the cryptocurrency market, news of the week

  • Mastercard Expands Access to B2B Blockchain Payment Tools [source: Сoindesk]
  • Japanese Police Arrest Ripple Exchange Operator for Fraud [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • Byzantium Hard Fork Activates on Ethereum Network [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • Bitcoin Breaks $6,000 Barrier, Market Cap Now Exceeds $100 Billion [source: Сointelegraph]
  • Sberbank, Russia’s Largest State-Owned Bank, is Eyeing Ethereum Integration [source: Сointelegraph]
  • Microsoft CEO Issues Blockchain Challenge to Interbank Messaging Service Swift [source: Сointelegraph]
  • China: WeiyangX Fintech Review [source: Crowdfundinsider]
  • You’ve Got to See What the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo Just Said About Bitcoin [source: Foxbusiness]

    2.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs

A new set of tools is proposed to assess the trends and performance of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs (see Table 2.1).

Table 2.1. New tools to access the performance of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs

Indicator Description
Average collected funds (ACF) Average amount of funds collected per ICO project over the period (month, quarter, year).
Average token performance (ATP)

 

Average performance of funds spent on buying tokens or average ratio between the current token price and token sale price over the period (month, quarter, year), i.e. the average reward per $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale, if they are traded on exchanges for USD.
Weighted average current reward on ICO funds (WACRF) Average weighted current performance of funds spent on buying tokens over the period (month, quarter, year). This indicator is similar to the previous indicator Average Token Performance (ATP), but is calculated taking into consideration the weight of the indicator. The parameter “average collected funds” (ACF) is used as a weight.
Weighted average monthly reward on ICO funds (WAMRF) Average weighted monthly performance of funds spent on buying tokens over the period (month, quarter, year). This indicator is similar to the previous indicator, Weighted Average Current Reward on ICO Funds (WACRF), but is calculated based on recalculated average monthly performance.

 

Table 2.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs4

Indicator September

2017

October 1-8,

2017

October 9-15,

2017

October 16-22,

2017

Total amount of funds collected,

USD million1

730.3 105.7 199.6 94.3
Number of companies that completed an ICO1 45 10 14 8
Maximum collected, USD million (ICO name) 257 (Filecoin) 26.5 (Power Ledger) 32.7 (Airswap) 40.0 (Electroneum)
Average collected funds, USD million 16.2 10.6 14.3 11.8
Max token reward (ICO name) 5.00x (Chainlink) n/a 1.00x (Airswap) 0.77x (Request network)
Average token reward (ATR)2 2.32x n/a 1.00x 0.77x
Weighted average current reward on funds (WACRF)3 2.71x n/a 1.00x 0.77x

Notes:

1 Data source: tokendata.io, coinschedule.com. Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum set amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered. For some ICOs information may be incomplete (for instance, the amount of funds collected).

2 The average token reward for ICO projects was calculated as of October 8, 2017. Consequently, the efficiency of contributions or the ratio between the current token price and the token sale price, i.e. the average reward per USD 1 spent on tokens during its token sale, if they are subsequently listed for USD on a cryptocurrency exchange, is $2.32 for projects completed in September 2017. To calculate this ratio, the authors used the data from 45 ICOs completed between September 1 and October 1, 2017. The maximum token reward for the period under review was 5x for the Chainlink ICO (based on the assessment made on October 8, 2017).

3 Weighted average current reward on funds (WACRF) is an indicator similar to Average token reward (ATR), but takes into consideration the weight of the amount of funds collected through an ICO (see the Glossary).

4 The data for many ICOs completed after October 1, 2017, is incomplete or non-existent.

The data for the second week of October (October 9-15, 2017) were adjusted to account for the appearance of more complete information on completed ICOs. The total amount of funds collected was $199.6 million. The amount collected through ICOs last week (October 16-22, 2017) was lower, and equaled $94.3 million. This total included the results of the eight most successful completed ICOs, with the highest collected amount equaling around $40 million (Electroneum). The average amount of funds collected per project was $11.8 million, which is somewhat less than the same indicator for September as a whole. Please see Table 2.5 for further details on the eight main ICOs over the past week.

2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market of active and planned ICOs

Table 2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market of active and planned ICOs

Indicator Value 
The number of projects conducting an active ICO as of the current date (October 22, 2017) 293
The number of projects planning an ICO as of the current date (October 22, 2017) 196
The number of projects planning an ICO between October 23-29, 2017 9

Data source: tokendata.io, coinschedule.com, coingecko.com and icoalert.com

The number of projects conducting active ICOs as of the current date (October 22, 2017) is 293. At present, there is information available on at least 196 planned ICOs to be conducted after October 22, 2017, including 9 ICOs which will start next week.

2.4. Quantitative analysis of the ICO market

    1. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

Table 2.4. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

Month Collected, $ million Number of ICOs* Average collected, $ million
January 4.5 3 1.5
February 9.7 5 1.94
March 4.7 3 1.57
April 127.8 17 7.52
May 168.4 16 10.53
June 995.2 30 33.17
July 461.3 29 15.91
August 330.0 35 9.43
September 730.3 45 16.23
October 1-8, 2017 105.7 10 10.6
October 9-15, 2017 199.6 14 14.3
October 16-22, 2017 94.3 8 11.8

* Information on funds collected is not available for all ICOs (information for last week is tentative and may be adjusted).

Table 2.4 shows that the greatest amount of funds was collected via ICOs in June 2017. In that month, the average collected funds per ICO was $33.17 million.

The data for the past week (October 16-22, 2017) may be adjusted as information on the amounts of funds collected via ICOs is finalized.

Figure 2.1. Trends in the amount of funds collected and number of ICOs since the start of the year

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-2-1

 

  1. Top ICOs

Table 2.5. Top 8 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (October 16-22, 2017)

# Name of ICO*** Category** Collected, $ million Date
1 Electroneum Infrastructure 40 October 20, 2017
2 Request Network Payments* 33.3 October 16, 2017
3 Change Payments* 15.7 October 16, 2017
4 DOVU Data Storage* 2.6 October 17, 2017
5 Gimli Gaming & VR* 1.3 October 21, 2017
6 ETCH Payments* 0.9 October 18, 2017
7 Databroker DAO Data Storage* 0.3 October 16, 2017
8 Qvolta Trading & Investing* 0.2 October 20, 2017
Total collected funds 94.3
Average collected funds, $ 11.8

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories were taken from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.

*** Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum set amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered. Information may be incomplete for some ICOs (for instance, the amount of funds collected).

Table 2.5 shows the top 8 ICOs which were successfully completed last week and collected the greatest amounts of funds. In the lead was the Electroneum project, which is focused on the creation of a cryptocurrency for use in a mobile application. The Electroneum cryptocurrency is based on accessibility and ease of use of all financial and technological capabilities for every smartphone owner, including mobile mining, simple fund transfers, online and offline wallets.

Figure 2.2. Top 8 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (October 16-22, 2017)

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-2-2

  1. Top ICOs in their categories

The list of top ICOs for the week includes the following categories of ICO projects.

Table 2.6. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Infrastructure category

Name of ICO Category** Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 Tezos Infrastructure 232.3 July 13, 2017 n/a
2 EOS Stage 1 Infrastructure 185 July 1, 2017 n/a
3 The DAO Infrastructure 168 May 28, 2016 n/a
4 Bancor Infrastructure 153 June 12, 2017 0.52x
5 Kin Infrastructure 97 September 26, 2017 0.76x
6 Status Infrastructure 90 June 20, 2017 0.70x
7 ICON Infrastructure 42.8 September 20, 2017 n/a
8 Sonm Infrastructure 42 June 17, 2017 0.97x
9 Electroneum Infrastructure 40 October 20, 2017 n/a
10 Aeternity Infrastructure 37 June 9, 2017 1.02x

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories were taken from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.

Table 2.6 lists the top 10 ICOs in the Infrastructure category. Nearly all of these projects were performed in 2017. Half of them performed an exchange listing, but, as we can see, the current token price of these projects does not exceed the token sale price (except for the tokens of the Aeternity project). For example, the tokens of the Bancor project could be purchased for approximately $3.86 (0.01 ETH) during the token sale, while the current token price on the cryptocurrency exchange is $2, i.e. token performance equals 0.52x. Total market capitalization of Bancor tokens as of October 22, 2017, equaled $76,533,532.

Figure 2.3. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Infrastructure category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-2-3

Second, third, and fourth place in last week’s rating belong to projects from the categories: Payments (Request Network and Change ICOs, with $33.3 and $15.7 million collected) and Data Storage (DOVU ICO, with $2.6 million collected).

The ratings of the ICO projects in these categories are given below.

Table 2.7. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Payments category

Name of ICO Category Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 TenX Payments 64.0 June 24, 2017 2.17x
2 Monetha Payments 36.6 August 31, 2017 0.47x
3 Request Network Payments* 33.3 October 16, 2017 0.77x
4 DomRaider Payments 31.0 October 11, 2017 n/a
5 Monaco Payments 26.6 June 18, 2017 2.82x
6 OmiseGo Payments 25.0 July 5, 2017 23.43x
7 Centra Tech Payments 18.5 August 25, 2017 0.74x
8 Change Payments* 15.7 October 16, 2017 n/a
9 TokenCard Payments 12.7 May 2, 2017 2.28x
10 Plutus Payments 1.0 June 30, 2016 6.58x

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

At present, the Token Performance indicator for all top 10 projects in the Payments category ranges between 0.47x and 23.43x. The exchange listing of the OmiseGo ICO can be considered one of the most successful projects, as the ratio of Current Token Price to Token Sale Price ratio of this project is 23.43x. When considering this indicator, it is important to remember that the OmiseGo ICO ended on July 5, 2017, i.e. the token performance grew 23.43 times over the course of approximately three months.

Figure 2.4. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Payments category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-2-4

Table 2.8. Top 4 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Data Storage category

Name of ICO Category Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 Filecoin Data Storage 257.0 September 7, 2017 n/a
2 Storj Data Storage 29.2 May 25, 2017 0.65x
3 DOVU Data Storage* 2.6 October 17, 2017 n/a
4 Databroker DAO Data Storage* 0.3 October 16, 2017 n/a

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

Table 2.8 shows the top 4 ICOs in the Data Storage category. One of the projects mentioned in this category, the Storj ICO, has already performed its exchange listing. This project has a Current Token Price to Token Sale Price ratio of 0.65x.

Figure 2.5. Top 4 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Data Storage category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-2-5

Table 2.9. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Gaming & VR category

Name of ICO Category Collected, $ million Date Token performance
1 MobileGO Gaming & VR 53.1 May 24, 2017 0.52x
2 Decentraland Gaming & VR 26.2 August 17, 2017 0.33x
3 DMarket Gaming & VR 10.9 August 21, 2017 n/a
4 Enjin Pre-Sale Gaming & VR 10.8 September 18, 2017 n/a
5 GameCoin Gaming & VR 8.9 September 29, 2017 n/a
6 NEVERDIE & TELEPORT Gaming & VR 6.1 August 31, 2017 n/a
7 FirstBlood Gaming & VR 5.5 September 25, 2016 4.12x
8 Reality Clash Gaming & VR 2.5 September 29, 2017 n/a
9 Gimli Gaming & VR* 1.3 October 21, 2017 n/a
10 Augmentors Gaming & VR 1.1 February 28, 2017 24.05x

* The category was established based on expert opinions.

Table 2.9 shows the top 10 ICOs in the Gaming & VR category. Only the tokens of four projects are currently being traded on the exchange. The exchange listing of the Augmentors ICO can be considered one of the most successful projects in this category, as its Current Token Price to Token Sale Price ratio is 24.05x.

Figure 2.6. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Gaming & VR category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-october-16-22-2017-figure-2-6

Eight ICO projects were successfully completed over the past week (October 16-22, 2017), each of which collected more than $100,000, with a total amount of funds collected of at least $94.3 million. The week’s leader was the Electroneum project ($40 million). The total amount of funds collected by a number of ICOs failed to reach even the $100,000 mark (the information for some projects is still being finalized). Overall, project organizers collected $100 million less funds last week as they did in the second week of October. At least another 9 ICOs are planned to take place next week.

The Glossary is given in Annex 1.

Annex 1 – Glossary

Key terms Definition
Initial coin offering, ICO A form of collective support of innovative technological projects, a type of presale and attracting of new backers through initial coin offerings to future holders in the form of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies (tokens) and digital assets.
Market capitalization Value of an asset calculated based on its current market (exchange) price. This economic indicator is used to assess the total aggregate value of market instruments, players, and markets. [Source: https://en.wikipedia.org].
Cryptocurrency market capitalization Aggregate market value of cryptocurrencies circulating on the market.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization Cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization, i.e. the aggregate market value of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on the market.
Token reward Token performance (current token price / token price during the ICO), i.e. the reward per $1 spent on buying tokens.
Dominance Market share, i.e. the ratio of market capitalization of a particular cryptocurrency (token) to total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Expressed as a %.
Token sale price

Current token price

Token sale price during the ICO.

Current token price.

Not Mineable

 

A token is not mineable – the term is used for cryptocurrencies (tokens) which cannot be mined or issued through mining.
Pre-mined A pre-mined coin. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (tokens) which are issued through mining, and a certain number of coins (tokens) have been created and distributed among certain users at the start of the project.
The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the beginning of the year) The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase compared to the start of the year.
The growth rate of the market (as a % compared to the beginning of the year) The market growth (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the start of the year.
Increase in market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period) Increase in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many USD million did market capitalization increase over the period.
The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period) Rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase over the period.
The market growth rate (as a % compared to previous period) Market growth rate (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the previous period.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets: at the time when this glossary was compiled over 1,070 cryptocurrencies and digital assets were circulating on the market.
Average market capitalization Average market capitalization, i.e. the ratio of the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets to their number.
Token reward Performance of funds spent on buying tokens or the ratio of the current token price to the token sale price, i.e. efficiency of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale, if listed on an exchange for USD.
ETH reward – current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale Alternative performance indicator of funds spent on buying tokens during the ICO or the ratio of the current ETH rate to its rate at the start of the token sale, i.e. if instead of buying tokens $1 was spent on buying ETH at its rate at the start of the token sale and sold at the current ETH rate.
BTC reward– current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale Similar to the above: Alternative performance indicator of funds spent on buying tokens during the token sale, i.e. if instead of buying tokens $1 was spent on buying BTC at its rate at the start of the token sale and sold at the current BTC rate.
Token/ETH reward This ratio describes the backer’s economic benefits and disadvantages resulting from buying tokens during the token sale relative to buying ETH. If the result is over 1, the backer spent his funds more efficiently on buying tokens than if he were to spend his funds on ETH.
Token/BTC reward This ratio describes the backer’s economic benefits and disadvantages resulting from buying tokens during the token sale relative to buying BTC. If the result is over 1, the backer spent his funds more efficiently on buying tokens than if he were to spend his funds on BTC.
ZAK-n Crypto index The index is calculated in percentages and represents a ratio between the 24-hour trade volume (transactions) on cryptocurrency exchanges per day (Volume 24h) for n dominant cryptocurrencies to their total market capitalization.

ZAK-3 Crypto index calculations include three dominant cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple, which at the start of 2017 had the greatest market capitalization.

ZAK-5 Crypto index calculations include the trade volume and market capitalization for five cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. The index for these five cryptocurrencies with the greatest current market capitalization (as of September 2017) is calculated for the period from August 2017, since Bitcoin Cash only entered the cryptocurrency exchanges in August 2017 as a result of the Bitcoin hard fork.

 


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