Coinspeaker cooperates with ICOBox to provide this weekly analysis of cryptocurrency and digital assets markets’ trends, conducted by Professor Dima Kornilov and Dima Zaitsev.

Information as of December 10, 2017 (results for the period from July 1, 2017)

This report was created by:

This report presents data on the cryptocurrency and ICO market changes that took place in the third and fourth quarters, with special emphasis on an analysis of the changes that have taken place since the beginning of December 2017, including over the last week (December 4-10, 2017).

1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month, quarter). Market trends.

    1.1 General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month).

Table 1.1. Trends in the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from August 1, 2017, to December 10, 2017

#Parameter1-Oct-171-Nov-17MoM, %1-Dec-17MoM, %3-Dec-17DoD, %10-Dec-17DoD, %
1Total market capitalization, USD billion147.9182.623.5%305.167.1%329.17.8%416.926.7%
2Altcoin market capitalization, USD billion75.975.4-0.7%134.778.7%143.86.8%163.113.4%
Altcoin dominance, %51.3%41.3%-19.6%44.1%7.0%43.7%-1.0%39.1%-10.5%
3Bitcoin price, $4 341.16 441.048.4%10 198.658.3%11 082.78.7%15 168.436.9%
Bitcoin market capitalization, USD billion72.0107.348.9%170.458.9%185.38.7%253.837.0%
Bitcoin dominance, %48.7%58.7%20.7%55.9%-4.9%56.3%0.8%60.9%8.1%
4Ethereum price, $301.6305.81.4%445.245.6%463.74.2%472.82.0%
Ethereum market capitalization, USD billion28.629.22.0%42.846.5%44.64.2%45.52.1%
Ethereum dominance, %19.4%16.0%-17.6%14.0%-12.3%13.5%-3.4%10.9%-19.4%
5Bitcoin Cash price, $433.4438.31.1%1 381.8215.3%1 435.43.9%1 411.8-1.6%
Bitcoin Cash market capitalization, USD billion7.27.31.9%23.3216.8%24.23.9%23.8-1.6%
Bitcoin Cash dominance, %4.9%4.0%-17.5%7.6%89.6%7.3%-3.7%5.7%-22.3%
6Litecoin price, $55.155.71.1%88.057.9%100.213.9%155.655.3%
Litecoin market capitalization, USD billion2.93.02.0%4.859.2%5.413.9%8.455.7%
Litecoin dominance, %2.0%1.6%-17.3%1.6%-4.7%1.6%5.6%2.0%22.9%
7Smith + Crown Index9 14712 08332.1%18 05849.4%20 45613.3%25 89126.6%
8Volume (24h) 3 crypto, USD billion1.63.5123.0%9.0157.6%9.10.9%15.773.2%
Market cap 3 crypto, USD billion108.2144.233.2%236.564.0%254.07.4%323.127.2%
ZAK-3 Crypto index1.4%2.4%67.4%3.8%57.1%3.6%-6.1%4.9%36.2%
9Volume (24h) 7 crypto, USD billion10.29.9-3.2%17.980.9%
Market cap 7 crypto, USD billion260.5279.27.2%360.629.2%
ZAK-7 Crypto index3.9%3.5%-9.7%5.0%40.0%

* Data as of December 10, 2017, 00:00 UTC
** Up to November 1, 2017, inclusive, the amount of the ZAK-3 index was calculated using the three dominant cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple. After November 2, 2017, the structure of the cryptocurrency market changed, so the subsequent figures of the ZAK-3 index were calculated using the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash.
*** Due to changes in the top seven cryptocurrencies by capitalization since December 1, 2017, the ZAK-7 index was calculated using the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA.
Data source: coinmarketcap.com, https://www.smithandcrown.com

During the period from December 1-10, 2017, total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by more than $100 billion, from $305.1 billion to $416.9 billion (as of December 10, 2017, 00:00 UTC, see Table 1.1). Over the past week (December 4-10, 2017) market capitalization increased by $87.8 billion. Bitcoin alone accounted for $68.5 billion of this increase, as its capitalization increased from $185.3 billion to $253.8 billion. The growth in altcoin capitalization over the week equaled approximately $20 billion (from $143.8 billion to $163.1 billion).

During the period from December 4-10, the exchange rates of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin increased by 36.9%, 2.0% and 55.3%, respectively, while the exchange rate of Bitcoin Cash showed a slight fall of -1.6%.

Up to December 8, 2017, the growth in the cryptocurrency market was mainly due to the intensive growth in the dominant cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (see fig. 1), the market capitalization of which exceeded $300 billion. The Bitcoin price reached several milestones over the past week. Over the course of five days (December 4-8, 2017) the price appreciated from $11,000 to $18,000. Over the subsequent three days, the price underwent a downward adjustment and the exchange rate fell.

Figure 1. Price trends of Bitcoin over the past week (December 4-10, 2017)

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-1

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

When looking at the trends in the top seven cryptocurrencies in terms of capitalization over the past week, one can see the tradeoff between the growth in the Bitcoin exchange rate during December 4-8, 2017, and the drop in the exchange rates of Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin and Dash over this same period. Conversely, when the Bitcoin exchange rate adjusted downward during the period from December 8-10, 2017, a growth surge in the exchange rates of these altcoins was seen (see fig. 2). The vigorous growth in the IOTA exchange rate up to December 6, 2017, was partially halted by the growth in the Bitcoin exchange rate.

Figure 2. Trends in the top seven cryptocurrencies on the cryptocurrency market over the past week (December 4-10, 2017)

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-2

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

All of this points to the high liquidity of the cryptocurrency market, and the traders’ readiness for its rapid change in order to profit from short-term changes in exchange rates. For the moment, the overwhelming majority of traders on the cryptocurrency market are individual traders, with very few institutional buyers. However, when these institutional buyers appear, the economics of the cryptocurrency market may undergo significant changes due to the appearance of the new mechanisms of risk hedging (futures contracts), the emergence of high-speed bots that perform transactions in microseconds using developed trading algorithms, and an increase in the influence of financial funds. It is well known that Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest firms, will help its clients to buy and sell Bitcoin futures contracts. Going forward the number of financial derivatives on the cryptocurrency market will increase, which will attract the large funds and require more clear-cut rules on its regulation.

Over the past week, the structure of market dominance of the top seven cryptocurrencies by capitalization changed, with IOTA overtaking Ripple, Litecoin, and Dash and climbing to fourth place with a total capitalization of more than $11.9 billion at December 10, 2017. Especially strong growth in the IOTA exchange rate took place from December 4-6, 2017. Its capitalization increased from $5.3 billion to $15.4 billion, accompanied by a 194% appreciation in its exchange rate from $1.89 to $5.55 (see fig. 3).

Figure 3. Price trends of IOTA over the past week (December 4-10, 2017)

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-3

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

What’s behind the growth in this cryptocurrency? IOTA has a few differences from other cryptocurrencies that determine its value: a) the possibility to make micropayments; b) there are no miners, meaning there is no commission fee for transactions within the network; c) scalability, which prevents transaction failures; d) as the number of users increases, so does the transaction speed; e) future partnership (Microsoft Azure) and projects (development of high-capacity microprocessors); f) a fully decentralized system.

The main reasons for the changes in the exchange rates of the leading cryptocurrencies during the week are given in Table 1.3.

The Smith + Crown Index increased considerably over the last week of November from 20,456 to 25,891.

To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-3 Crypto and ZAK-7 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.2.a, and 1.2.b. For example, on December 8, 2017, the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the three dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash) exceeded $26 billion for the first time (Table 1.2.a). The value of the ZAK-3 Crypto equaled 7.2%, which attests to the extremely high liquidity and market dynamism of the dominant cryptocurrencies.

Table 1.2.a. Daily ZAK-3 Crypto index calculation (from December 1, 2017, to December 10, 2017)

Crypto Bitcoin (BTC)Ethereum (ETH)Bitcoin Cash (BCH)3 Crypto
 Price OpenVolume (24h)Market capPrice OpenPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capVolume (24h)Market capVolume (24h) 3 cryptoMarket cap 3 cryptoZAK-3 Crypto index
Date$USD millionUSD million$$USD millionUSD millionUSD millionUSD millionUSD millionUSD million%
Dec 10, 2017  15 168.413 433253 782472.81 404      45 501   1 411.888623 78515 723323 0684.9%
Dec 9, 2017  16 523.313 911276 415457.32 004      44 006   1 464.61 06024 67216 975345 0924.9%
Dec 8, 2017  17 802.921 136297 787435.02 336      41 846   1 329.22 55422 38726 026362 0207.2%
Dec 7, 2017  14 266.117 951238 600426.42 130      41 008   1 430.71 28524 09621 365303 7047.0%
Dec 6, 2017  11 923.412 656199 390462.61 998      44 483   1 498.51 15525 23415 809269 1085.9%
Dec 5, 2017  11 685.76 895195 389470.31 217      45 213   1 580.21 03326 6079 145267 2093.4%
Dec 4, 2017  11 315.46 132189 172466.11 006      44 796   1 560.278126 2677 919260 2353.0%
Dec 3, 2017  11 082.76 608185 258463.7991      44 561   1 435.41 47724 1649 076253 9823.6%
Dec 2, 2017  10 978.35 139183 490466.9944      44 853   1 462.157524 6116 657252 9542.6%
Dec 1, 2017  10 198.66 783170 436445.21 248      42 765   1 381.896523 2578 996236 4583.8%

* Data as of December 11, 2017, 00:00 UTC
** Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the seven dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA) reached $17,874 million at the end of the past week (Table 1.2.b), i.e. 5% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-3 Crypto and ZAK-7 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.2.a and 1.2.b.

Table 1.2.b. Daily ZAK-7 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.2.а)

Crypto IOTA (MIOTA)Ripple (XRP)Dash (DASH)Litecoin (LTC)7 Crypto
 Price OpenVolume (24h)Market capPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capVolume (24h)Market capZAK-7 Crypto index
Date$USD millionUSD million$USD millionUSD million$USD millionUSD million$USD millionUSD millionUSD millionUSD million%
Dec 10, 20174.6667514 0300.24551989 512723.231905 600155.6310878 43917 874360 6505.0%
Dec 9, 20175.0592811 5130.25222059 769727.642125 633127.4824376 91020 756378 9175.5%
Dec 8, 20174.141 26112 4160.22366608 663700.682885 42398.3315165 32829 751393 8507.6%
Dec 7, 20174.472 12710 5940.23262759 012699.992495 41699.986465 41624 663334 1417.4%
Dec 6, 20173.811 4177 7780.24542759 507756.012495 848102.485485 54918 298297 7906.1%
Dec 5, 20172.801 0915 2650.25361759 816774.712015 991104.283295 64410 940293 9263.7%
Dec 4, 20171.894014 0040.25291059 768770.571525 958101.43315 4878 908285 4523.1%
Dec 3, 20171.441163 9490.25551359 869778.781926 016100.193645 4209 882279 2363.5%
Dec 2, 20171.421413 6390.25571189 874797.901886 16298.944035 3517 507277 9802.7%
Dec 1, 20171.311793 5410.25041839 669787.472866 080885614 75910 206260 5063.9%

 

Table 1.3 shows the key events of the week (December 4-10, 2017) having an influence on the exchange rates of the dominant cryptocurrencies and on the cryptocurrency market in general, with an indication of their nature and type of impact.

Table 1.3. Key events of the week having an influence on cryptocurrency exchange rates, December 4-10, 2017

Factors and events

(link to source)

Date of newsDate of event*DescriptionNature of impactType of impact
1.                    Venezuela to Launch Oil-Backed Cryptocurrency ‘Petro’ to Combat U.S. Financial ‘Blockade’ [source: Coinspeaker]December 4, 2017December 4, 2017The President of Venezuela announced that the creation of the cryptocurrency would help to avoid the adverse effects of the US’s economic blockade. This step could potentially show other countries in similar situations the advantages of a cryptocurrency and lead to the use of cryptocurrencies in other countries.Market Favorable

 

2.                    Interoperability Proven: BTC Lightning Network Closer to Release Than Ever [source: Financemagnets]December 6, 2017December 6, 2017This development could potentially make it possible to solve the problems plaguing the speed of transfers and scalability of Bitcoin. The resolution of one of bitcoin’s biggest problems could lead to the much wider use of the cryptocurrency.BTC Favorable
3.                    Goldman Sachs Plans to Clear Bitcoin Futures When They Go Live [source: Bloomberg]December 7, 2017December 7, 2017A large and well-respected player on the global financial market is showing interest in bitcoin futures, which cannot help but influence public opinion of bitcoin.Market Favorable
4.                    Bitcoin Price Swings After Hitting New All-Time High of $18,353 [source: Coinspeaker]December 8, 2017December 8, 2017After its rapid growth this week, bitcoin was able to pass the important threshold of $18,000.BTC Favorable
5.                    Largest Cryptocurrency Platforms Go Offline Amid Bitcoin Price Growth to $18,000 [source: Twitter]December 8, 2017December 8, 2017Several large cryptocurrency exchanges such as Bitfinex went offline for several hours after the precipitous growth in bitcoin led to panic on the market and a fall in bitcoin. These instabilities in the work of the cryptocurrency exchanges show that the entire cryptocurrency trading system is very unstable and requires further improvement.Market

BTC

 

Unfavorable
6.                    Ripple Commits $55 Billion in XRP Tokens to Escrow Account [source: Twitter]December 9, 2017December 9, 2017Ripple is striving to ensure the stability of its platform, and is taking some serious steps in this direction. Limitation of the supply of Ripple coins on the market led to an increase it its price.XRP Favorable

* Event already took place

The high trading volume (Volume 24h) relative to market capitalization contributes to increased volatility and wild price changes on the cryptocurrency market.

Below is an analysis of the daily changes in the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash exchange rates since the start of the month (Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b, and 1.4.c).

Table 1.4.a. Daily change in the Bitcoin (BTC) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from December 1, 2017, to December 10, 2017)

DateOpen, $High, $Low, $Range, $Close, $DoD, %D, %Index, rate to Aug 1, 2017Volume (24h), USD millionMarket cap, USD million
Dec 10, 201715 168.415 850.613 226.62 624.015 455.4101.8%1.815.4813 433253 782
Dec 9, 201716 523.316 783.013 674.93 108.115 178.291.6%-8.415.2013 911276 415
Dec 8, 201717 802.918 353.414 336.94 016.516 569.492.6%-7.416.6021 136297 787
Dec 7, 201714 266.117 899.714 057.33 842.417 899.7125.2%25.217.9317 951238 600
Dec 6, 201711 923.414 369.111 923.42 445.714 291.5119.9%19.914.3212 656199 390
Dec 5, 201711 685.712 032.011 604.6427.411 916.7102.2%2.211.946 895195 389
Dec 4, 201711 315.411 657.211 081.8575.411 657.2102.9%2.911.686 132189 172
Dec 3, 201711 082.711 858.710 862.0996.711 323.2102.2%2.211.346 608185 258
Dec 2, 201710 978.311 320.210 905.1415.111 074.6100.9%0.911.095 139183 490
Dec 1, 201710 198.611 046.79 694.71 352.110 975.6107.3%7.310.996 783170 436

* Data as of December 11, 2017, 00:00 UTC
Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Table 1.4.b. Daily change in the Ethereum (ETH) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from December 1, 2017, to December 10, 2017)

DateOpen, $High, $Low, $Range, $Close, $DoD, %D, %Index, rate to Aug 1, 2017Volume (24h), USD millionMarket cap, USD million
Dec 10, 2017472.79472.8429.5143.3441.7293.3%-6.754.071 40445 501
Dec 9, 2017457.34504.2456.2547.9473.50103.8%3.857.962 00444 006
Dec 8, 2017434.99466.1422.3743.7456.03105.0%5.055.822 33641 846
Dec 7, 2017426.37441.4414.4127.0434.41101.4%1.453.172 13041 008
Dec 6, 2017462.60462.7420.2142.5428.5992.5%-7.552.461 99844 483
Dec 5, 2017470.29473.6457.6615.9463.2898.5%-1.556.711 21745 213
Dec 4, 2017466.05474.8453.3121.5470.20100.9%0.957.551 00644 796
Dec 3, 2017463.70482.8451.8531.0465.85100.5%0.557.0299144 561
Dec 2, 2017466.85476.2456.6519.6463.4599.3%-0.756.7394444 853
Dec 1, 2017445.21472.6428.3144.3466.54104.3%4.357.101 24842 765

* Data as of December 11, 2017, 00:00 UTC
Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Since the start of December, the Bitcoin exchange rate has appreciated from $10,198.60 to $15,455.40, while the Ethereum exchange rate has changed from $445.21 to $441.72 (Tables 1.4.a and 1.4.b). The highest Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates ($18,353.40 and $504.20) were recorded on December 8, 2017, and December 9, 2017, respectively. The largest fluctuations in the daily range (Range) of the exchange rates of Bitcoin ($4,016.50) and Ethereum ($47.90) were also recorded on the same days, i.e. the Ethereum price increased against the backdrop of a downward adjustment of the Bitcoin exchange rate. Since the start of 2017, the Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates have increased by a factor of 15.48 and 54.07, respectively (see Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b).

The price trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash in December 2017 are given in figures 3, 4, and 5.

Figures 4, 5, 6. Price trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-4

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-5

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-6

According to the data given in figures 4, 5, and 6, the intensive growth in the Bitcoin exchange rate during December 6-7, 2017, was accompanied by a drop in the exchange rates of Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash, while the downward adjustment of the Bitcoin exchange rate on December 8, 2017, led to an increase in Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash. All this attests to the fact that some market participants are periodically changing their preferences (see Tables 1.4.a, 1.4.b, 1.4.c) amid an overall positive capitalization trend on the cryptocurrency market and the appearance of interesting new cryptocurrencies. Figure 7 shows the lively pattern of change in the IOTA exchange rate since the start of December 2017.

Figure 7. Price trends of IOTA 

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-7

Over the first ten days of December the IOTA exchange rate fluctuated from $1.20 to $5.60. The posting of development results and plans by the developers on the website raised confidence in the project and influenced demand for the cryptocurrency. In particular, on November 28, 2017, IOTA published the Data Marketplace, which presents a number of services for the “smart city” project (https://blog.iota.org/iota-data-marketplace-cb6be463ac7f).

Table 1.4.c. Daily change in the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) exchange rate, trading volume (Volume 24h) and capitalization, USD (from December 1, 2017, to December 10, 2017)

DateOpen, $High, $Low, $Range, $Close, $DoD, %D, %Index, rate to Aug 1, 2017Volume (24h), USD millionMarket cap, USD million
Dec 10, 20171411.81411.81226.2185.61323.193.8%-6.23.4888623 785
Dec 9, 20171464.61526.41353.9172.51410.196.3%-3.73.711 06024 672
Dec 8, 20171329.21731.31247.9483.41464.1110.0%10.03.852 55422 387
Dec 7, 20171430.71454.71323.8131.01330.993.1%-6.93.501 28524 096
Dec 6, 20171498.51530.71396.2134.51430.195.2%-4.83.761 15525 234
Dec 5, 20171580.21623.21498.0125.21501.995.2%-4.83.951 03326 607
Dec 4, 20171560.21580.11499.081.11576.9101.1%1.14.1578126 267
Dec 3, 20171435.41649.31420.6228.71559.9108.7%8.74.101 47724 164
Dec 2, 20171462.11502.41415.586.91435.098.1%-1.93.7857524 611
Dec 1, 20171381.81482.71300.5182.21462.7105.2%5.23.8596523 257

* Data as of December 11, 2017, 00:00 UTC
Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The overall index of Bitcoin Cash exchange rate change from August 1, 2017, equaled 3.48 (the rate of $380 at the close of the day on August 1, 2017, was taken as the basis for the calculation), i.e. during the period after the Bitcoin hard fork and the appearance of the new Bitcoin Cash cryptocurrency its exchange rate has increased by 248%, with most of this growth taking place since the beginning of November. During the first days of December the exchange rate ranged from $1,226.20 to $1,731.30. As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin Cash now holds third place in terms of capitalization, which equals $23.8 billion.

December 10, 2017, marked the beginning of trading in Bitcoin futures on the CBOE Global Markets exchange. The principles of trading are given on the website http://www.cboe.com/blogs/options-hub/2017/12/11/hedging-bitcoin-with-xbt-bitcoin-futures.

Bitcoin futures will allow market participants to lock in a selling price for Bitcoin as of a future date (see fig. 8).

Figure 8. Bitcoin futures

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-8

Figure 9 shows the trend in the weighted average exchange rate of Bitcoin on coinmarketcap.com during the first day of trading. The average exchange rate increased over the analyzed period, and was documented at $16,800.

Figure 9. Change in the Bitcoin exchange rate on December 10-11, 2017

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-9

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Table 1.5 gives a list of events, information on which appeared last week, which could impact both the exchange rates of specific cryptocurrencies and the market in general.

Table 1.5. Events that could have an influence on cryptocurrency exchange rates in the future

 

Factors and events

(link to source)

Date of newsDate of event*DescriptionNature of impactType of impact
1.Treasury Crackdown on Bitcoin Over Concerns it is Used to Launder Money and Dodge Tax [source: Telegraph]December 4, 2017The British government intends to regulate bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, to avoid the risks of terrorist financing and money laundering. On the one hand, this news is favorable, since it will give a clear legal foundation to cryptocurrencies, but, on the other hand, this news could have an adverse effect, since the nature of the changes in legislation are not yet clear and the new regulations might be too strict.Uncertain
2.Cboe Plans December 10 Launch of Bitcoin Futures Trading [source: Businessinsider]December 4, 2017December 10, 2017The positive news that the launch of bitcoin futures will take place in the near future increases the excitement surrounding the cryptocurrency.BTC Favorable
3.World First: Blockchain Will Power Australia’s Biggest Stock Exchange [source: Сryptocoinsnews]December 7, 2017The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) plans to become the first exchange in the world to use blockchain technology for internal clearing within the system. This is good news for the entire blockchain industry.Market

 

Favorable
4.The Threat of Bitcoin Futures [source: Coindesk]December 8, 2017December 10, 2017On one level, the appearance of bitcoin futures means that the financial giants are interested in bitcoin, and this has a positive effect on its price. But on another level, the appearance of futures does not mean that major financial companies will start buying bitcoin, as the futures market is a completely separate securities market that is only based on the bitcoin price.
Futures are usually used for risk hedging, and the only ones in need of bitcoin hedging are bitcoin miners and holders. Miners will sell futures contracts to guarantee themselves a bitcoin price for the bitcoins that they will mine in the future, and bitcoin holders – to reduce (hedge) losses caused by a possible drop in the exchange rate. However, there are no natural hedgers on the purchase side, which puts downward pressure on the market.
Uncertain
5.South Korean Government to Allow Institutional Investors to Invest in ICOs [source: Сryptocoinsnews]December 8, 2017The South Korean government is working to create a clear legislative framework for cryptocurrencies and ICOs. According to tentative rumors, the government is not considering the possibility for ordinary South Korean citizens to participate in ICOs, but it may allow institutional investors to do so.Uncertain

* Event will happen in the future (date, year, n/a – not available)

    1.2 Market trends

The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from July 2, 2017, to December 10, 2017, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1-1.5)*.

Table 1.6. Legends and descriptions of the figures

Global FiguresFigure**Description
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization, USD millionFig. 1.1This figure shows cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization trends from July 2, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % compared to the beginning of the year)Fig. 1.1This figure shows the % change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization compared to January 1, 2017.
Change in the market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period)Fig. 1.2This figure shows the weekly change in USD million (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % compared to the previous period)Fig. 1.2This figure shows the % of weekly change (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assetsFig.1.3This figure shows the trends in the increase of the number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on cryptocurrency exchanges. On January 1, 2017, their number was 617, and as of December 10, 2017, this number had already reached 1,274.
Average market capitalization, USD millionFig. 1.3This figure reflects the growth in the average cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from July 2, 2017, i.e. the ratio between the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets and their number.
Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalizationFig. 1.4, 1.5This figure shows the time trend (forecast) change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization.

* Data as of December 11, 2017, 00:00 UTC
** The figures below present average data for 24 hours
Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization**

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-1-1

** Average daily data

Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from July 2, 2017, to December 10, 2017. Over this period, market capitalization increased from $94,716 million to $383,020 million, a growth of 2,064% relative to the start of the year. Over the past week, total market capitalization grew from $333,820 million to $383,020 million (as of December 10, 2017). At the start of the day on December 10, 2017 (00:00 UTC), cryptocurrency market capitalization equaled $416.9 billion (see Table 1.1), but by 04:00 UTC it had fallen to $363.6 billion. Therefore, figure 1.1 presents average daily values, including for December 10, 2017 (based on the data of coinmarketcap.com).

Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-1-2

Despite the significant growth in cryptocurrency market capitalization in Q3 2017 and over the entire year to date, the market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. Significant drops were seen during the week of July 9-16, 2017 (-28%), and over the first two weeks of September (September 3-10 and September 11-17, 2017), when the market lost $25,203 million (-15.1%) and $20,817 million (-15%), respectively. The highest growth rate in Q3 was 39% (the week of July 16-23, 2017).

For the third week in a row the weekly growth in market capitalization equaled around $50 billion. Over the past week (December 4-10, 2017), total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by $49,201 million, or 15% (using average daily data). The growth was mainly due to an increase in the market capitalization of Bitcoin, but Altcoins, including IOTA (on the strength of the increase in its market capitalization from $5 billion to $12 billion during the period from December 4-10, 2017), were also a factor.

Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-1-3

The total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets listed on exchanges has grown since July from 881 to 1,274. Their number increased insignificantly over the past week. Average cryptocurrency and digital asset capitalization increased from $262.2 million to $300.6 million over the analyzed period.

 Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-1-4

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-1-5

Over the four weeks of October (October 1-29, 2017) the cryptocurrency market grew by $23 billion, from $147 billion to $170 billion, and over the following four weeks of November (October 30-November 26, 2017) it reached $283 billion, i.e. it increased by another $113 billion. Over the next two weeks (November 27-December 10, 2017) the growth totaled another $100 billion. Total market capitalization exceeded $450 billion for the first time on December 8, 2017, and currently stands at $383 billion (the average value on December 10, 2017).

Last week (December 4-10, 2017) was characterized by market growth of 15%, with this growth being driven primarily by the increase in the Bitcoin price. New market trends are possible with the appearance of Bitcoin futures. That being said, the cryptocurrency market grew significantly, with its capitalization increasing by a factor of 22 since the start of the year (from $17.7 billion to $383 billion on December 10, 2017).

2. General analysis of the ICO market (by week, month).

    2.1 Brief market overview, news of the week

  • How Governments Are Reacting to ICOs [source: Сoindesk]
  • ICO Delayed by Ethereum’s CryptoKitties Congestion [source: Сoindesk]
  • Alleged ICO Fraudster Pleads Not Guilty in New York Court [source: Сoindesk]
  • South Korean Government to Allow Institutional Investors to Participate in ICOs [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • Bitcoin ‘Looks Like a Bubble’, We’ll Be ‘Friendly’ to ICOs: Israel Securities Regulator [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • Bitcoin-Friendly Philippines Plans ICO Regulation [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • China was Right to Shut Down Bitcoin Exchanges & ICOs: PBoC Official [source: Сryptocoinsnews]
  • Five Reasons Why KYC Is Crucial for Your ICO Investment [source: Сryptocoinsnews]

    2.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs

A set of tools is proposed to assess the trends and performance of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs (see Table 2.1).

Table 2.1. Tools to assess the market performance of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs

IndicatorDescription
Average collected funds (ACF)Average amount of funds collected per ICO project over the period (month, quarter, year).
Average token performance (ATP)

 

Average performance of funds spent on buying tokens or average ratio between the current token price and token sale price over the period (month, quarter, year), i.e. the average reward per $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale, if they are traded on exchanges for USD.
Weighted average current reward on ICO funds (WACRF)Average weighted current performance of funds spent on buying tokens over the period (month, quarter, year). This indicator is similar to the previous indicator Average token performance (ATP), but is calculated taking into consideration the weight of the indicator. The parameter “average collected funds” (ACF) is used as a weight.
Weighted average monthly reward on ICO funds (WAMRF)Average weighted monthly performance of funds spent on buying tokens over the period (month, quarter, year). This indicator is similar to the previous indicator, Weighted average current reward on ICO Funds (WACRF), but is calculated based on recalculated average monthly performance.

 

Table 2.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs4

IndicatorAugust

2017

September

2017

October

2017

November

2017

December 1-

10, 2017

Total amount of funds collected, USD million1330802.9822.6683.5282.9
Number of companies that completed an ICO13548725021
Maximum collected, USD million (ICO name)54.6

(Salt)

257

(Filecoin)

144.3 (Polkadot)108.2

(QASH)

52.0

(Blockstack)

Average collected funds, USD million9.416.711.413.713.5
Max token reward (ICO name)15.18x (Neblio)6.86x

(ICON)

8.11x (Electroneum)7.99x

(Genesis Vision)

n/a
Average token reward (ATR)22.35x1.94x1.89x2.72xn/a
Weighted average current reward on funds (WACRF)31.88x1.83x2.08x2.76xn/a

Notes:
1 Data source: tokendata.io, icodrops.com, coinschedule.com. Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum set amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered. For some ICOs information may currently be incomplete (for instance, the amount of funds collected).
2 Average token reward for ICO projects was calculated for August-November as of December 2, 2017. Consequently, token reward or the ratio between the current token price and the token sale price, i.e. the average reward per USD 1 spent on tokens during the token sale, if they are subsequently listed for USD on a cryptocurrency exchange, is $2.72 for projects completed in November 2017. To calculate this ratio, the authors used the data from 50 ICOs completed between November 1 and December 1, 2017. The maximum token reward for projects completed in November was 7.99x for the Genesis Vision ICO (based on the assessment made on December 2, 2017).
3 Weighted average current reward on funds (WACRF) is an indicator similar to Average token reward (ATR), but takes into consideration the weight of the amount of funds collected through an ICO (see the Glossary).
4 The data for many ICOs completed after November 1, 2017, are incomplete or non-existent.

Since the start of December (December 1-10, 2017), the amount of funds collected via ICOs equaled $282.9 million. This amount includes the results of the 21 most successful completed ICOs, with the largest amount collected equaling around $52 million (Blockstack ICO). The average amount of funds collected per project was $13.5 million. More detailed information on the 21 ICOs completed since the beginning of December is given in Table 2.5.

    2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market of active and planned ICOs

Table 2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market of active and planned ICOs

IndicatorValue 
The number of projects conducting an active ICO as of the current date (December 10, 2017)285
The number of projects planning an ICO as of the current date (December 10, 2017)274
The number of projects planning an ICO between December 11-17, 201720

Data source: tokendata.io, coinschedule.com, coingecko.com, icodrops.com and icoalert.com

The number of projects conducting active ICOs as of December 10, 2017, is 285. There is presently information available on at least 274 planned ICOs to be conducted after December 10, 2017, including at least 20 ICOs which will start next week.

    2.4. Quantitative analysis of the ICO market

         1. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

Table 2.4. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

MonthCollected, $ millionNumber of ICOs*Average collected, $ million
January4.531.5
February9.751.94
March4.731.57
April127.8177.52
May168.41610.53
June995.23033.17
July461.32915.91
August330.0359.43
September730.34516.23
October794.26811.7
November683.55013.7
December 1-10, 2017282.92113.5
Total4693.532914.3

* Information on funds collected is not available for all ICOs (information for last week is tentative and may be adjusted).

Table 2.4 shows that the greatest amount of funds was collected via ICOs in June 2017. In that month, the average collected funds per ICO was $33.17 million.

The data for the first days of December (December 1-10, 2017) may be adjusted as information on the amounts of funds collected by completed ICOs is finalized.

 

Figure 2.1. Trends in funds collected and number of ICOs since the start of the year

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-2-1

        2. Top ICOs

Table 2.5. Top 21 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (December 1-10, 2017)

Name of ICO***Category**Collected, $ millionDate
1BlockstackInfrastructure*52.0December 1, 2017
2Crypto20Trading & Investing*37.7December 1, 2017
3StormInfrastructure*30.7December 8, 2017
4UniversaInfrastructure*28.6December 9, 2017
5SimpleTokenInfrastructure*21.7December 1, 2017
6DmarketGaming & VR19December 1, 2017
7SpectreTrading & Investing*16.6December 10, 2017
8SenseInfrastructure*15December 1, 2017
9LeverjTrading & Investing*13December 7, 2017
10CashaaFinance*11.1December 5, 2017
11PlaykeyGaming & VR10.5December 1, 2017
12ProtosTrading & Investing*5.5December 6, 2017
13SportyFiGaming & VR*5.1December 10, 2017
14AphelionTrading & Investing*4.8December 8, 2017
15Hut34Data Storage*3.4December 7, 2017
16VeifyIdentity & Reputation*2.5December 6, 2017
17Crypto TicketsEvents & Entertainment*1.8December 1, 2017
18FidentiaXCommerce & Advertising*1.6December 5, 2017
19VeztArt & Music1.4December 3, 2017
20QchainCommerce & Advertising*0.7December 6, 2017
21PayfairFinance*0.2December 1, 2017
 Total collected funds282.9 
 Average collected funds, $13.5 

* The category was established based on expert opinions.
** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, icodrops.com, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories correspond to the information from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.
*** Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum set amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered. Information may be incomplete for some ICOs (for instance, the amount of funds collected).

Table 2.5 shows the top 21 ICOs which were successfully completed since the start of December. The leader was the decentralized Internet browser Blockstack. The token of the Blockstack project will be used for the registration fees to be paid directly within the network. Figure 2.2 shows the ten largest ICOs completed since the start of December 2017.

Figure 2.2. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (December 1-10, 2017)

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-2-2

 

        3.Top ICOs in their categories

The list of top ICOs for the week includes the following categories of ICO projects.

Table 2.6. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Infrastructure category

Name of ICOCategory**Collected, $ millionDateToken performance
1TezosInfrastructure232.3July 13, 2017n/a
2EOS Stage 1Infrastructure185July 1, 20174.29x
3The DAOInfrastructure168May 28, 2016n/a
4BancorInfrastructure153June 12, 20170.71x
5PolkadotInfrastructure*144.3October 27, 2017n/a
6KinInfrastructure97September 26, 20170.63x
7StatusInfrastructure90June 20, 20171.70x
8BlockstackInfrastructure*52December 1, 2017n/a
9ICONInfrastructure42.8September 20, 201717.27x
10SonmInfrastructure42June 17, 20171.70x

* The category was established based on expert opinions.
** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, icodrops.com, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources was used. The ICO project categories correspond to the information from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.
*** The projects in the Top 10 of the category completed since the start of December 2017 are highlighted in red.

Table 2.6 lists the top 10 ICOs in the Infrastructure category. Nearly all of these projects were performed in 2017.

Figure 2.3. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Infrastructure category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-2-3

The ratings of ICOs in the Trading & Investing and Gaming & VR categories are given below.

Table 2.7. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Trading & Investing category

 Name of ICOCategory**Collected, $ millionDateToken performance
1QASHTrading & Investing*108.2November 8, 2017n/a
2Enigma CatalystTrading & Investing45September 11, 20171.08x
3Crypto20Trading & Investing*37.7December 1, 2017n/a
4StoxTrading & Investing33.3August 4, 20170.42x
5AirswapTrading & Investing*32.7October 11, 20171.02x
6BlackmooncryptoTrading & Investing30September 13, 20170.45x
70xTrading & Investing24August 16, 20174.95x
8Finshi CapitalTrading & Investing21.4October 6, 2017n/a
9CoinDashTrading & Investing20August 17, 2017n/a
10openANXTrading & Investing18.8July 4, 20170.50x

* The category was established based on expert opinions.
** The projects in the Top 10 of the category completed since the start of December 2017 are highlighted in red.

At present, all projects from the top 10 in the Trading & Investing category have a token performance indicator of 0.42x to 4.95x. The exchange listing of the 0x ICO can be considered one of the most successful, as this project has a current token price to token sale price ratio of 4.95x. When considering this indicator, it is important to remember that the 0x ICO was completed on August 16, 2017, i.e. the 5x growth took place over approximately 3.5 months, and the market capitalization of 0x currently exceeds $116 million.

Figure 2.4. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Trading & Investing category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-2-4

Table 2.8. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Gaming & VR category

 Name of ICOCategory**Collected, $ millionDateToken performance
1MobileGOGaming & VR53.1May 24, 20170.86x
2DecentralandGaming & VR26.2August 17, 20172.51x
3DMarketGaming & VR19August 21, 2017n/a
4Enjin Pre-SaleGaming & VR10.8September 18, 20171.49x
5PlaykeyGaming & VR10.5December 1, 2017n/a
6GameCoinGaming & VR8.9September 29, 2017n/a
7NEVERDIE & TELEPORTGaming & VR6.1August 31, 2017n/a
8FirstBloodGaming & VR5.5September 25, 20165.55x
9SportyFiGaming & VR*5.1December 10, 2017n/a
10ArtokenGaming & VR*2.8November 23, 2017n/a

* The category was established based on expert opinions.
** The projects in the Top 10 of the category completed since the start of December 2017 are highlighted in red.

Table 2.8 shows the top 10 ICOs in the Gaming & VR category. Half of the projects presented are selling their tokens on cryptoexchanges. The capitalization of the leader in this category (the MobileGO project) is $60 million.

Figure 2.5. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Gaming & VR category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-december-4-10-2017-figure-2-5

Over the past period (December 1-10, 2017), 21 ICO projects were successfully completed, each of which collected more than $100,000, with a total amount of funds collected of at least $282.9 million. The week’s leader was the Blockstack project ($52 million). The total amount of funds collected by a number of ICOs failed to reach even the $100,000 mark (the information for some projects is still being finalized). At least another 20 ICOs are planned to take place next week.

The Glossary is given in Annex 1.

Annex 1 – Glossary

Key termsDefinition
Initial coin offering, ICOA form of collective support of innovative technological projects, a type of presale and attracting of new backers through initial coin offerings to future holders in the form of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies (tokens) and digital assets.
Market capitalizationValue of an asset calculated based on its current market (exchange) price. This economic indicator is used to assess the total aggregate value of market instruments, players, and markets. [Source: https://en.wikipedia.org].
Cryptocurrency market capitalizationAggregate market value of cryptocurrencies circulating on the market.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalizationCryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization, i.e. the aggregate market value of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on the market.
Token rewardToken performance (current token price / token sale price during the ICO), i.e. the reward per $1 spent on buying tokens.
DominanceMarket share, i.e. the ratio of market capitalization of a particular cryptocurrency (token) to total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Expressed as a %.
Token sale price

Current token price

Token sale price during the ICO.

Current token price.

Not Mineable

 

A coin that is not mineable. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (tokens) which cannot be mined or issued through mining.
Pre-minedA pre-mined coin. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (tokens) which are issued through mining, and a certain number of coins (tokens) have been created and distributed among certain users at the start of the project.
The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the beginning of the year)The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase compared to the start of the year.
The growth rate of the market (as a % compared to the beginning of the year)The market growth (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the start of the year.
Increase in market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period)Increase in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many USD million did market capitalization increase over the period.
The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period)Rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase over the period.
The market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period)Market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the previous period.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assetsNumber of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. At the time when this glossary was compiled over 1,070 cryptocurrencies and digital assets were circulating on the market.
Average market capitalizationAverage market capitalization, i.e. the ratio of the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets to their number.
Token returnPerformance of funds spent on buying tokens or the ratio of the current token price to the token sale price, i.e. performance of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale, if listed on an exchange for USD.
ETH reward – current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token saleAlternative performance indicator of funds spent on buying tokens during the ICO or the ratio of the current ETH rate to its rate at the start of the token sale, i.e. if instead of buying tokens $1 was spent on buying ETH at its rate at the start of the token sale and then it was sold at the current ETH rate.
BTC reward– current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token saleSimilar to the above: Alternative performance indicator of funds spent on buying tokens during the token sale, i.e. if instead of buying tokens $1 was spent on buying BTC at its rate at the start of the token sale and then it was sold at the current BTC rate.
Token/ETH rewardThis ratio describes the backer’s economic benefits and disadvantages resulting from buying tokens during the token sale relative to buying ETH. If the result is over 1, the backer spent his funds more efficiently on buying tokens than if he were to have spent his funds on ETH.
Token/BTC rewardThis ratio describes the backer’s economic benefits and disadvantages resulting from buying tokens during the token sale relative to buying BTC. If the result is over 1, the backer spent his funds more efficiently on buying tokens than if he were to have spent his funds on BTC.
ZAK-n Crypto indexThe index is calculated as a percentage and represents a ratio between the 24-hour trading volume (transactions) on cryptocurrency exchanges per day (Volume 24h) for n dominant cryptocurrencies to their total market capitalization.

ZAK-3 Crypto index calculations include three dominant cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash, since they currently have the greatest market capitalization.

ZAK-7 Crypto index calculations include the trading volume and market capitalization for seven cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, DASH and IOTA.


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