Coinspeaker partnered with ICOBox to provide our readers with this weekly analysis conducted by Professor Dima Kornilov and Dima Zaitsev devoted to cryptocurrency and digital assets markets taken place since the beginning of January 2018, including over the last week (January 15-21, 2018).

Information as of January 21, 2018

This report was created by:

This report presents data on the cryptocurrency and ICO market changes during 2017-2018, with special emphasis on an analysis of the changes that have taken place since the beginning of January 2018, including over the last week (January 15-21, 2018).

1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month, quarter). Market trends.

    1.1 General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month).

Table 1.1. Trends in capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from December 1, 2017, to January 21, 2018

Parameter1-Dec-171-Jan-18MoM, %7-Jan-18DoD, %14-Jan-18DoD, %21-Jan-18DoD, %
1Total market capitalization, USD billion305.1612.9100.9%815.233.0%744.3-8.7% 630.6-15.3%
2Altcoin market capitalization, USD billion134.7376.2179.3%520.938.5%502.8-3.5%413.9-17.7%
Altcoin dominance, %44.1%61.4%63.9%67.6%65.6%
3Bitcoin price, $10 198.614 112.238.4%17 527.324.2%14 370.8-18.0% 12 889.2-10.3%
Bitcoin market capitalization, USD billion170.4236.738.9%294.224.3%241.4-17.9%216.7-10.2%
Bitcoin dominance, %55.9%38.6%36.1%32.4%34.4%
4Ethereum price, $445.2755.869.8%1 043.038.0%1 397.534.0%1 155.7-17.3%
Ethereum market capitalization, USD billion42.873.170.9%101.038.2%135.534.2%112.2-17.2%
Ethereum dominance, %14.0%11.9%12.4%18.2%17.8%
5Bitcoin Cash price, $1 381.82 534.883.4%2 784.79.9%2 687.1-3.5% 2 033.7-24.3%
Bitcoin Cash market capitalization, USD billion23.342.884.1%47.19.9%45.4-3.4%34.4-24.3%
Bitcoin Cash dominance, %7.6%7.0%5.8%6.1%5.5%
6Litecoin price, $88.0231.7163.3%296.127.8%260.6-12.0% 211.2-18.9%
Litecoin market capitalization, USD billion4.812.6165.6%16.228.0%14.3-11.8%11.6-18.8%
Litecoin dominance, %1.6%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.8%
7Smith + Crown Index18 05827 54352.5%34 19024.1%33 556-1.9% 29 217-12.9%
8Volume (24h) 4 crypto, USD billion9.215.771.1%25.361.0%18.9-25.2%16.9-10.6%
Market cap 4 crypto, USD billion246.1441.679.4%562.127.3%500.6-10.9%424.4-15.2%
ZAK-4 Crypto index3.7%3.6%4.5%3.8%4.0%
4 crypto dominance, %80.7%72.0%69.0%67.3%67.3%
9Volume (24h) 8 crypto, USD billion10.317.267.5%27.057.0%20.1-25.6%18.7-7.1%
Market cap 8 crypto, USD billion263.5488.685.4%632.429.4%563.3-10.9%475.1-15.7%
ZAK-8 Crypto index3.9%3.5%4.3%3.6%3.9%
8 crypto dominance, %86.4%79.7%77.6%75.7%75.3%

* Data as of January 21, 2018, 00:00 UTC
** After December 1, 2017, the structure of the cryptocurrency market changed, so the subsequent figures of the ZAK-4 index were calculated using the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple.
*** When calculating the ZAK-8 index, the cryptocurrencies with the largest capitalization are used. At present (January 21, 2018), the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Cardano, NEM, and NEO are used.
Data source: coinmarketcap.com, https://www.smithandcrown.com

During the analyzed period (January 15-21, 2018), according to the data of coinmarketcap.com (as of 00:00 UTC) there was a drop in market capitalization by -15.3% (see Table 1.1) and in all cryptocurrencies in the Top 20 by capitalization except NEO (+2.06%). The fall in prices for key cryptocurrencies equaled: Bitcoin (-10.3%), Ethereum (-17.3%), Ripple (-23.68%), Bitcoin Cash (-24.3%), Litecoin (-18.9%), NEM (-21.29%), Cardano (-19.58%), Stellar (-21.27%). Some of the reasons for these changes on the cryptocurrency market over the past week are given in Table 1.3.

The dominance of the four and eight largest cryptocurrencies as of January 21, 2018, equals 67.3% and 75.3%, respectively.

Over the week, the Smith + Crown Index fell from 33,556 to 29,217.

During the period from January 15-21, 2018, total market capitalization fluctuated by nearly $300 billion (from $714 billion to $417 billion, see fig. 1). During the previous week (January 8-14, 2018) the fluctuation equaled around $200 billion (from $830 billion to $630 billion, see the previous analysis). On January 21, capitalization lies in the range from $550 billion to $630 billion.

Figure 1. Trends in total cryptocurrency market capitalization during the period January 15-21, 2018

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-1

Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The cryptocurrency market is growing very fast, meaning that adjustments are constantly being made. For example, during December 2017 the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market doubled, from $305 billion to $610 billion, but then a downward adjustment of $215 billion was seen in twenty-four hours on December 21-22, 2017 (from $650 billion to $435 billion). The market subsequently recovered to $610 billion by the end of 2017, and in early January had already reached a record $830 billion.

As we are seeing, after a period of intensive growth the cryptocurrency market is subject to sharp fluctuations. This is connected with a series of news items on regulatory processes in South Korea, a country where trading volumes have increased considerably over the past six months. For example, the two largest South Korean exchanges, Upbit and Bithumb, account for around 30% of all global trade in cryptocurrencies (according to the data of coinhills.com, which takes into account the trading volume of more than 100 cryptoexchanges). The Upbit exchange averages around one million users per day, with 120 coins available for trading. The top 10 cryptoexchanges by 24-hour trading volume on January 21, 2018, are given in fig. 2.

Figure 2. Top 10 cryptoexchanges by 24-hour trading volume on January 21, 2018

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-2

Data source: coinhills.com

For this reason, the uncertain and negative news for the cryptocurrency market coming from South Korea dragged the entire cryptocurrency market down. A similar situation was seen in September 2017 when the exchanges were closed in China, resulting in their relocation from China to Japan. However, as we are seeing, the cryptocurrency market recovers quickly. The special operating features of some exchanges should also be noted, for example regarding the Upbit cryptocurrency market: “Upbit is operated by importing coins listed on the US exchange Bittrex, which is different from a typical domestic exchange. It is uncertain whether regulations like other exchanges have can be applied”.

Another fairly interesting source of information on the trading volume on cryptoexchanges is https://bitmakler.net/birzha (fig. 3). This website shows data for 319 cryptoexchanges, but trading volumes are only taken into account for 34 of them.

Figure 3. Top 10 cryptoexchanges by 24-hour trading volume on January 21, 2018

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-3

Data source: bitmakler.net

A hard fork called EtherZero (ETZ) took place in the Ethereum network on block 4936270 on January 19, 2018. As noted earlier, each ETH will equal 1 ETZ, and 20 million ETZ will be set aside for subsequent development. All ETH holders will receive the same number of ETZ. This news did not have much of an effect on the price right before the hard fork, with the ETH price dropping on January 16-17, 2018, just like the rest of the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, the ETH network started to experience certain difficulties related to the significant increase in the number of transactions, which led to increased processing times. The daily trading in Ethereum Classic (ETC) reached $8-9 billion. On January 17, the Bitstamp and KuCoin exchanges announced the cessation of withdrawal of the cryptocurrency due to the instability of the Ethereum network.

To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.2.a, and 1.2.b. For example, on January 4, 2018, the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the four dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple) exceeded $40 billion (Table 1.2.a). The value of the ZAK-4 Crypto equaled 8.1%, which attests to the extremely high liquidity and market dynamism of the dominant cryptocurrencies. By the time of the downward adjustment of the cryptocurrency market (January 17, 2018), the value of the index had reached 9.7%, i.e. daily cryptocurrency turnover equaled nearly 10% of total market capitalization.

Table 1.2.а. Daily ZAK-4 Crypto index calculation (from January 1, 2018, to January 21, 2018)

CryptoBitcoin (BTC)Ethereum (ETH)Bitcoin Cash (BCH)Ripple (XRP)4 Crypto
 Price Open Volume (24h)Market capPrice Open Volume (24h)Market capPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capVolume (24h) 4 cryptoMarket cap 4 cryptoZAK-4 Crypto index
Date$USD billionUSD billion$USD billionUSD billion$USD billionUSD billion$USD billionUSD billionUSD billionUSD billion%
Jan 21, 201812 889 9.9 216.7 1 156 3.4 112.2 2 034 0.7 34.4 1.582.8 61.1 16.9 424.4 4.0%
Jan 20, 201811 65611.8196.01 0454.0101.51 7841.130.21.562.360.519.2388.25.0%
Jan 19, 201811 43010.7192.21 0294.199.91 7400.729.41.583.761.319.3382.75.0%
Jan 18, 201811 19915.0188.21 0165.998.61 7521.029.61.319.150.631.1367.18.5%
Jan 17, 201811 43118.8192.11 0618.5103.01 7681.529.91.187.345.936.1370.99.7%
Jan 16, 201813 83618.9232.51 2938.4125.42 4071.740.71.685.765.034.7463.67.5%
Jan 15, 201813 76712.8231.31 3654.8132.42 5421.443.01.861.871.920.8478.64.3%
Jan 14, 201814 371 11.1 241.4 1 397 4.8 135.5 2 687 1.0 45.4 2.022.0 78.2 18.9 500.6 3.8%
Jan 13, 201813 95212.8234.41 2705.7123.22 6181.244.32.052.179.521.9481.34.5%
Jan 12, 201813 45412.1226.01 1585.2112.32 4761.141.91.943.375.221.7455.34.8%
Jan 11, 201814 96816.5251.41 2687.2122.92 8921.948.91.986.376.732.0499.96.4%
Jan 10, 201814 58918.5245.01 3009.2126.02 3902.640.42.134.882.535.1493.97.1%
Jan 9, 201815 12416.7253.91 1468.0111.02 4121.140.82.443.794.729.4500.45.9%
Jan 8, 201816 47618.4276.61 1588.5112.22 7871.447.13.363.3130.331.6566.25.6%
Jan 7, 201817 527 15.9 294.2 1 043 5.6 101.0 2 785 1.4 47.1 3.092.4 119.8 25.3 562.1 4.5%
Jan 6, 201817 46218.3293.19954.796.32 5841.743.73.022.8117.027.4550.15.0%
Jan 5, 201815 47723.8259.79766.794.42 4012.140.63.306.3127.938.9522.67.4%
Jan 4, 201815 27121.8256.39626.593.02 6095.444.13.128.1120.841.8514.18.1%
Jan 3, 201814 97816.9251.38865.185.72 7014.745.62.466.695.533.3478.17.0%
Jan 2, 201813 62516.8228.67725.874.72 4351.841.12.373.291.827.6436.26.3%
Jan 1, 201814 112 10.3 236.7 756 2.6 73.1 2 535 0.9 42.8 2.301.9 88.9 15.7 441.6 3.6%

* Data as of January 15, 2018, 00:00 UTC
** Data source: coinmarketcap.com

The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the eight dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, NEM, NEO, and Cardano) equaled $18.7 billion at the end of last week (Table 1.2.b), i.e. 3.9% of their market capitalization. The ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.2.a and 1.2.b.

Table 1.2.b. Daily ZAK-8 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.2.а)

CryptoNEM (XEM)Cardano (ADA)NEO (NEO)Litecoin (LTC)8 Crypto
 Price OpenVolume (24h)Market capPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capPrice OpenVolume (24h)Market capVolume (24h)Market capZAK-8 Crypto index
Date$USD billionUSD billion$USD billionUSD billion$USD billionUSD billion$USD billionUSD billionUSD billionUSD billion%
Jan 21, 20181.220.11 11.00.7100.818.3150.20.359.82110.511.618.7 475.13.9%
Jan 20, 20181.100.139.90.6600.717.0140.50.509.11940.510.721.2434.94.9%
Jan 19, 20181.070.139.60.6500.616.8141.30.499.21910.610.521.0428.94.9%
Jan 18, 20181.030.129.20.6301.316.4142.60.849.31870.910.234.3412.28.3%
Jan 17, 20180.980.178.80.6201.716.2144.71.599.41901.410.441.0415.69.9%
Jan 16, 20181.380.2012.50.7801.620.2188.01.6612.22331.412.839.6521.37.6%
Jan 15, 20181.390.1112.50.8001.020.6170.11.4611.12370.613.023.9535.84.5%
Jan 14, 20181.510.04 13.60.8820.222.9140.60.659.12610.914.320.6 560.43.7%
Jan 13, 20181.460.0613.10.9170.323.8124.20.468.12371.013.023.6539.24.4%
Jan 12, 20181.310.0711.80.6960.418.0109.20.237.12300.712.623.1504.84.6%
Jan 11, 20181.450.0913.00.7920.220.5123.10.278.02521.113.833.7555.26.1%
Jan 10, 20181.550.0913.90.8160.221.2127.20.368.32481.013.636.8550.86.7%
Jan 9, 20181.670.0815.00.8980.223.3102.10.536.62550.913.931.2559.35.6%
Jan 8, 20181.830.0816.50.9990.325.9102.10.236.62881.215.733.4630.95.3%
Jan 7, 20181.660.12 14.91.0200.226.6101.10.206.62961.116.226.9 626.34.3%
Jan 6, 20181.580.1014.20.9970.325.895.30.196.22502.313.630.3610.05.0%
Jan 5, 20181.690.1815.21.1700.530.498.90.296.42411.713.241.6587.87.1%
Jan 4, 20181.840.3316.51.0900.628.4104.80.336.82453.513.446.5579.28.0%
Jan 3, 20181.150.2710.30.7800.720.290.30.295.92563.214.037.7528.57.1%
Jan 2, 20181.040.119.40.7250.318.878.50.375.12291.212.529.6481.96.2%
Jan 1, 20181.040.06 9.30.7190.218.676.20.145.02320.612.616.7 487.13.4%

 

Table 1.3 shows the key events that took place from January 15-21, 2018, having an influence on the prices of the dominant cryptocurrencies and on the cryptocurrency market in general, with an indication of their nature and type of impact.

Table 1.3. Key events of the week having an influence on cryptocurrency prices, January 15-21, 2018

Factors and events

(link to source)

Date of newsDate of event*DescriptionNature of impactType of impact
1.                    Banks Backtrack on Cryptocurrency Accounts [source: Joins.com]January 15, 2018January 15, 2018After a tense week for the entire crypto industry and rumors that South Korean banks are preparing to close all cryptocurrency accounts, the banks decided to give all cryptocurrency traders a month to use their real names and to eliminate anonymity. This decision was much more favorable than the banks deciding to stop servicing all cryptocurrency accounts.Market ⇑Favorable
2.                    Fines for Anonymous Сrypto Trading Accounts to be Implemented in South Korea [source: Coinspeaker]January 15, 2018January 15, 2018The South Korean government will begin to fine all accounts registered to fictitious people, to eliminate anonymity on the cryptocurrency market. On the one hand, this is good news, since the state could have implemented much stricter measures, but, on the other hand, this is bad news, since the interest in cryptocurrencies was caused in part by their anonymity, which will now be eliminated.MarketUncertain
3.                    Changes Coming For the Bitconnect System – Halt of Lending and Exchange Platform [source: Bitconnect.co]January 16, 2018January 16, 2018BitConnect has announced the termination of all activity of the project, causing a fall in the cryptocurrency associated with the project by approximately a factor of 29, from $437 to $15. This news shows that even among the top 50 cryptocurrencies by capitalization there may be projects that could cease to exist and lose almost 100% of their value over just a few days.Market ⇓Unfavorable
4.                    Morgan Stanley Starts Clearing Bitcoin Futures [source: Coinspeaker]January 18, 2018January 18, 2018The fact that Morgan Stanley has followed Goldman Sachs and begun to clear bitcoin futures shows clients’ high demand for these services, and suggests that more and more banks may begin to provide these services in the future.Market ⇑Favorable
5.                    Commission Income From Crypto Accounts Jumped 36 Times for South Korean Banks [source: Bitcoin.com]January 19, 2018January 19, 2018After an audit by the South Korean regulators of South Korean banks, it came to light that banks had earned 36 times more commission fees from cryptocurrency accounts than a year ago. This attests to the very sharp growth in the overall interest in cryptocurrencies among the general public in Korea. This news shows how serious the growth in the crypto industry has been, and that it impacts the income of traditional banks.Market ⇑Favorable
6.                    Staff Letter: Engaging on Fund Innovation and Cryptocurrency-Related Holdings [source: Sec.gov]January 19, 2018January 19, 2018The clearly negative attitude of the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission to ETF bitcoin derivatives due to the excessive volatility of cryptocurrencies is discernable in the published letter. This letter carries considerable weight in the Commission, and may intimate that going forward these ETF may not be approved.Market ⇓Unfavorable
7.                    India Sends Tax Notices to Cryptocurrency Investors as Trading Hits $3.5 Billion [source: Reuters]January 19, 2018January 19, 2018Tens of thousands of Indian citizens received letters from the Indian government with a demand to pay taxes on cryptocurrency trading. On the one hand, some market players may be against this state initiative and begin to sell their cryptocurrency in order to avoid problems with the law, but, on the other hand, the need to pay taxes reveals that the state sees cryptocurrencies as something established and does not plan to ban them.MarketUncertain
8.                    Tether Printing Press In High Gear, Issuing $400 Million in Four Days [source: Bitcoin.com]January 19, 2018January 19, 2018The issue of such a large amount of the Tether cryptocurrency over a mere four days, against the backdrop of large slump on the cryptocurrency market and the desire of traders to avoid losses, may prove to be risky for the Bitfinnex exchange, which issues this cryptocurrency backed by the US dollar.MarketUncertain

* Event already took place

The price trends of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Bitcoin Cash in January 2018 are given in fig. 4-7.

Figures 4-7. Changes in price trends

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-4

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-5

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-6

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-7

Since the beginning of January, the days January 8, 2018, and January 16, 2018, can be singled out when the prices for most cryptocurrencies fell (see fig. 4-7). The reasons for the fall in prices were discussed earlier.

The largest daily price fluctuations since the start of the month took place on January 16, 2018, and equaled $3,648 for Bitcoin (from $13,843 to $10,195), $417 for Ethereum (from $1,292.60 to $875.60), and $851 for Bitcoin Cash (from $2,407 to $1,556). The largest daily fluctuation for Ripple was recorded on January 8, 2018 – $1.29 (from $3.36 to $2.07)

Table 1.5 gives a list of events, information on which appeared last week, which could impact both the exchange rates of specific cryptocurrencies and the market in general.

Table 1.5. Events that could have an influence on cryptocurrency exchange rates in the future

 

Factors and events

(link to source)

Date of newsDate of event*DescriptionNature of impactType of impact
1.Japan’s Largest Bank to Launch Cryptocurrency Exchange [source: Bitcoin.com]January 16, 2018n/aThe plans of the largest bank in Japan and the 4th largest bank in the world, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, show that trading in cryptocurrencies is becoming the new mainstream, and the entry onto the market of cryptocurrency exchange services of such a major player as MUFG will give even more impetus to the continued adoption of cryptocurrencies by the Japanese public, a country with one of the highest levels of per capita income in the world.Market Favorable
2.China Plans to Block Access to Domestic and Offshore Cryptocurrency Platforms [source: Coinspeaker]January 16, 2018n/aA senior official of the People’s Bank of China has announced that a ban on all centralized online and mobile cryptocurrency exchange services, as well as on all businesses related to the provision of cryptocurrency exchange services, is possible in the country. If this news is confirmed, it would be the biggest blow yet to crypto markets, and could lead to a large market decline.Market Unfavorable

* Event will happen in the future (date, year, n/a – not available)

1.2 Market trends

The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from October 1, 2017, to January 21, 2018, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1-1.5)*.

Table 1.6. Legends and descriptions of the figures

Global FiguresFigure**Description
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization, USD millionFig. 1.1This figure shows cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization trends from October 1, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % to the beginning of 2017)Fig. 1.1This figure shows the % change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization compared to January 1, 2017.
Change in the market capitalization (in USD million compared to previous period)Fig. 1.2This figure shows the weekly change in USD million (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from October 1, 2017.
The rate of market change (as a % compared to the previous period)Fig. 1.2This figure shows the % of weekly change (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from October 1, 2017.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assetsFig.1.3This figure shows the trends in the increase of the number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on cryptocurrency exchanges. On January 1, 2017, their number was 617, and as of January 21, 2018, this number had already reached 1,444.
Average market capitalization, USD millionFig. 1.3This figure reflects the growth in the average cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from October 1, 2017, i.e. the ratio between the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets and their number.
Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalizationFig. 1.4, 1.5This figure shows the time trend (forecast) change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization.

* Data as of January 22, 2018, 00:00 UTC
** The figures below present average data for 24 hours
Data source: coinmarketcap.com

Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization*

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-1-1

* Average daily data (according to the data of coinmarketcap.com).

Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from October 1, 2017, to January 21, 2018. Over this period, market capitalization increased from $146.9 billion to $597.2 billion, a growth of 3,274% relative to the start of 2017. Over the first week of January 2018, total market capitalization exceeded $800 billion for the first time, but over the following two weeks (January 8-21, 2018) total market capitalization decreased from $822.5 billion to $597.2 billion (as of January 21, 2018, based on the average figures from coinmarketcap.com).

 Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-1-2

Despite the significant growth in cryptocurrency market capitalization in Q3 2017 and over the entire year, the market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. The highest growth rate in Q4 2017 was around $200 billion, or 54%, during the week of December 17-24, 2017.

During the first week of January, market capitalization increased by approximately $250 billion, or 44%, but over the following two weeks decreases of approximately $100 billion and $130 billion, respectively, were seen (with due account of average daily data, see fig. 1.2).

 Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-1-3

The total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets listed on exchanges has grown since the start of October from 1,091 to 1,444. Their number increased by 53 over the past week alone, from 1,391 to 1,444. In this regard, over the past two weeks average cryptocurrency and digital asset capitalization has decreased from $607 million to $413.6 million.

Figures 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-1-4

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-1-5

The market has fallen for two weeks in a row, primarily due to the events in South Korea. The number of operations with cryptocurrencies may decrease somewhat in India in the near future, due to the introduction of taxes, and China may also contribute to a continued decline if it establishes a ban on the activity of all cryptocurrency exchange services in the country. However, in Japan, on the contrary, an expansion of the distribution of cryptocurrency is planned (one of the largest banks plans to launch a cryptoexchange).

Next week will probably act as a stabilization period, unless new measures to ban cryptocurrencies are introduced in the USA, South Korea and China.

2. General analysis of the ICO market (by week, month).

    2.1 Brief market overview, news of the week

  • Is Crypto Investment the Next Big Thing for Institutional Investors? [source: Coinspeaker]
  • Israel Releases Draft Plan for Taxing ICOs [source: Сoindesk]
  • Global Securities Watchdog Warns Investors on ICO Risks [source: Сoindesk]
  • Massachusetts Sues ICO Organizer for Alleged Securities Violations [source: Сoindesk]

    2.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs

A set of tools is proposed to assess the trends and performance of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs (see Table 2.1).

Table 2.1. Tools to assess the market performance of successfully completed and/or listed ICOs

IndicatorDescription
Average collected funds (ACF)Average amount of funds collected per ICO project over the period (month, quarter, year).
Average token performance (ATP)Average performance of funds spent on buying tokens or average ratio between the current token price and token sale price over the period (month, quarter, year), i.e. the average reward per $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale, if they are traded on exchanges for USD.
Weighted average current reward on ICO funds (WACRF)Average weighted current performance of funds spent on buying tokens over the period (month, quarter, year). This indicator is similar to the previous indicator Average token performance (ATP), but is calculated taking into consideration the weight of the indicator. The parameter “average collected funds” (ACF) is used as a weight.
Weighted average monthly reward on ICO funds (WAMRF)Average weighted monthly performance of funds spent on buying tokens over the period (month, quarter, year). This indicator is similar to the previous indicator, Weighted average current reward on ICO Funds (WACRF), but is calculated based on recalculated average monthly performance.

 

Table 2.2. Aggregated trends and performance indicators of past (completed) ICOs4

IndicatorTotal

2017

December

2017

January 1-7,

2018

January 8-14,

2018

January 15-

21, 2018

Total amount of funds collected, USD million16 037.71 627.1294.6301.7449.3
Number of companies that completed an ICO138274171719
Maximum collected, USD million (ICO name)258

(Hdac)

258

(Hdac)

51.8 (Neuromation)60.3

(Olympus Labs)

100

(Envion)

Average collected funds, USD million15.82217.317.723.6
Max token reward (ICO name)6 398.61x (Spectrecoin)10.56х

(Aelf)

5.59x

(Lamden)

2.54x

(Selfkey)

2.79x (InsurancePal)
Average token reward (ATR)247.86x13.04x2.37x1.18x2.36x
Weighted average current reward on funds (WACRF)39.91x9.03x1.03x0.84x2.18x

Notes:
1 Data source: tokendata.io, icodrops.com, icodata.io, coinschedule.com. Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum set amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered. For some ICOs information may currently be incomplete (for instance, the amount of funds collected).
2 Average token reward on ICO projects during 2017 and 2018. For example, token reward or the ratio between the current token price and the token sale price, i.e. the average reward per USD 1 spent on tokens during the token sale, if they are subsequently listed for USD on a cryptocurrency exchange, equals $47.86 for projects completed in 2017. To calculate this ratio, the authors used the data from 382 ICOs completed in 2017. The maximum token reward for projects completed in 2017 was 6,398.61x for the Spectrecoin ICO (based on the assessment made on January 4, 2018).
3 Weighted average current reward on funds (WACRF) is an indicator similar to Average token reward (ATR), but takes into consideration the weight of the amount of funds collected through an ICO (see the Glossary).
4 The data for many ICOs are incomplete or non-existent.

The data since the start of January (January 1-14, 2018) were adjusted to account for the appearance of more complete information on past ICOs. Last week (January 15-21, 2018) the amount of funds collected via ICOs equaled $449.3 million. This amount includes the results of the 19 most successful completed ICOs, with the largest amount collected equaling around $100 million (Envion ICO). The average amount of funds collected per project was $23.6 million. More detailed information on the 19 main ICOs completed over the past week is given in Table 2.5.

    2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market of active and planned ICOs

Table 2.3. Aggregated indicators to assess the market of active and planned ICOs

IndicatorValue
Number of projects conducting an active ICO as of the current date (January 21, 2018)245
Number of projects planning an ICO as of the current date (January 21, 2018)170
Number of projects planning an ICO between January 22-28, 201825

Data source: tokendata.io, icodata.io, coinschedule.com, coingecko.com, icodrops.com, smithandcrown.com and icoalert.com

The number of projects conducting active ICOs as of January 21, 2018, is 245. There is presently information available on at least 170 planned ICOs to be conducted after January 21, 2018, including at least 25 ICOs which will start next week.

    2.4. Quantitative analysis of the ICO market

        2.4.1 Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

Table 2.4. Amount of funds collected and number of ICOs

MonthCollected, $ millionNumber of ICOs*Average collected, $ million
January4.531.5
February9.751.94
March4.731.57
April127.8177.52
May168.41610.53
June995.23033.17
July461.32915.91
August330359.43
September730.34516.23
October794.26811.7
November683.55013.7
December1 627.17422
January 1-7, 2018294.61717.3
January 8-14, 2018301.71717.7
January 15-21, 2018449.31923.6
Total7083.343516.3

* Information on funds collected is not available for all ICOs (information for last week is tentative and may be adjusted).

Table 2.4 shows that the greatest amount of funds was collected via ICOs in December 2017. The average funds collected per ICO in that month equaled $22 million.

The data for last week (January 15-21, 2018) may be adjusted as information on the amounts of funds collected by completed ICOs is finalized.

Figure 2.1. Trends in funds collected and number of ICOs since the start of 2017

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-2-1

        2.4.2 Top ICOs

Table 2.5. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (January 15-21, 2018)

Name of ICO***Category**Collected, $ millionDate
1EnvionMining100January 15, 2018
2ZeepinData storage62.6January 18, 2018
3MobiusInfrastructure39January 18, 2018
4DataCommerce & Advertising38January 21, 2018
5PundiXFinance/Payments35January 21, 2018
6OriginTrailSupply & Logistics22.5January 15, 2018
7TheKeyIdentity & Reputation22January 15, 2018
8FortunaTrading & Investment21.5January 21, 2018
9Car VerticalInfrastructure19.9January 15, 2018
10BluzelleData storage19.5January 20, 2018
 Top 10 ICOs380 
 Total funds collected from January 15-21, 2018 (19 ICOs)449.3 
 Average funds collected 23.6 

* The category was established based on expert opinions.
** When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, icodrops.com, icodata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources is used. The ICO project categories correspond to the information from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.
*** Only popular and/or successfully completed ICOs (i.e. ICOs which managed to collect the minimum set amount of funds) and/or ICOs listed on exchanges were considered. Information may be incomplete for some ICOs (for instance, the amount of funds collected).

Table 2.5 shows the top 10 ICOs which were successfully completed over the past week (January 15-21, 2018).

The leader for the week was the Swiss project Envion, located in Germany. The ICO offers a new mining method with high performance and mobility indicators. High performance is ensured by the proximity of energy sources, and the ability to use renewable and other energy sources for monetization of surplus energy.

Figure 2.2 presents the ten largest ICOs completed last week.

Figure 2.2. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected (January 15-21, 2018)

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-2-2

       2.4.3 Top ICOs in their categories

 The list of top ICOs by category is compiled with due account of the categories of the leading ICOs for the week.

Table 2.6. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Commerce & Advertising category

Name of ICOCategory*Collected, $ millionDateToken performance
1IndaHashCommerce & Advertising47.5December 20, 2017n/a
2WaxCommerce & Advertising46.5November 15, 20179.46x
3DataCommerce & Advertising38January 21, 2018n/a
4Basic Attention TokenCommerce & Advertising35.0May 31, 201714.22x
5HOQUCommerce & Advertising18.8January 11, 2018n/a
6AirtokenCommerce & Advertising15.0October 7, 20172.16x
7BodhiCommerce & Advertising14.7November 22, 20172.28x
8GATCOINCommerce & Advertising14.5January 14, 2018n/a
9AdsharesCommerce & Advertising12.1January 12, 2018n/a
10AdExCommerce & Advertising11.4June 30, 20177.31x

* When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, icodrops.com, icodata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources is used. The ICO project categories correspond to the information from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.
** The top projects in this category completed in January 2018 are highlighted in red.

At present, all projects from the top 10 in the Commerce & Advertising category have a token performance indicator of 2.16x to 14.22x. Four projects from the top 10 completed their ICOs in January 2018. The Basic Attention Token exchange listing can be considered one of the most successful ICOs, as this project has a current token price to token sale price ratio of 14.22x. When considering this indicator, it is important to remember that the Basic Attention Token ICO was completed on May 31, 2017, i.e. the 14.22x growth took place over approximately seven months. The market capitalization of Basic Attention Token currently exceeds $500 million.

Figure 2.3. Top 10 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Commerce & Advertising category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-2-3

The ratings of ICOs in the Identity & Reputation and Mining categories are given below.

Table 2.7. Top 5 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Identity & Reputation category

Name of ICOCategory*Collected, $ millionDateToken performance
1CivicIdentity & Reputation33June 22, 20176.74x
2TheKeyIdentity & Reputation22January 15, 2018n/a
3SelfkeyIdentity & Reputation21.8January 14, 2018n/a
4RevainIdentity & Reputation9.4September 4, 201715.45x
5MetaverseIdentity & Reputation2September 8, 2016n/a

* When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, icodrops.com, icodata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources is used. The ICO project categories correspond to the information from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.
** The top projects in this category completed in January 2018 are highlighted in red.

Table 2.7 shows the top 5 ICOs in the Identity & Reputation category. The Civic project can be considered one of the most successful ICOs in this category in terms of the amount of funds collected. The best token performance indicator, i.e. the best current token price to token sale price ratio, is 15.45x, and belongs to the Revain ICO. Its market capitalization currently equals more than $140 million.

Figure 2.4. Top 5 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Identity & Reputation category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-2-4

Table 2.8. Top 4 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Mining category

Name of ICOCategory*Collected, $ millionDateToken performance
1EnvionMining100January 15, 2018n/a
2Giga WattMining20.2July 31, 20171.36x
3HydroMinerMining2.9November 15, 2017n/a
4EasymineMining1.1October 25, 2017n/a

* When compiling the lists of top ICOs, information from the websites tokendata.io, icodrops.com, icodata.io, coinschedule.com and other specialized sources is used. The ICO project categories correspond to the information from the website coinschedule.com. If there is no information on the website concerning the project category at the time of compilation of this analytical report, the category is determined by experts.
** The top projects in this category completed in January 2018 are highlighted in red.

Table 2.8 shows the top 4 ICOs in the Mining category, one of which was completed last week. Envion was the leader of the week and the category in terms of the amount of funds collected.

Figure 2.5. Top 4 ICOs in terms of the amount of funds collected, Mining category

weekly-cryptocurrency-and-ico-market-analysis-january-15-21-2018-figure-2-5

Over the past period (January 15-21, 2018), more than 19 ICO projects were successfully completed, each of which collected more than $100,000, with a total amount of funds collected of around $450 million. The leader of the past week of January 2018 was the Envion project ($100 million). The total amount of funds collected by a number of ICOs failed to reach even the $100,000 mark (the information for some projects is still being finalized).

The Glossary is given in Annex 1.

Annex 1 – Glossary

 

Key termsDefinition
Initial coin offering, ICOA form of collective support of innovative technological projects, a type of presale and attracting of new backers through initial coin offerings to future holders in the form of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies (tokens) and digital assets.
Market capitalizationValue of an asset calculated based on its current market (exchange) price. This economic indicator is used to assess the total aggregate value of market instruments, players, and markets. [Source: https://en.wikipedia.org].
Cryptocurrency market capitalizationAggregate market value of cryptocurrencies circulating on the market.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalizationCryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization, i.e. the aggregate market value of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on the market.
Token rewardToken performance (current token price / token sale price during the ICO), i.e. the reward per $1 spent on buying tokens.
DominanceMarket share, i.e. the ratio of market capitalization of a particular cryptocurrency (token) to total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Expressed as a %.
Token sale price

Current token price

Token sale price during the ICO.

Current token price.

Not Mineable

 

A coin that is not mineable. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (tokens) which cannot be mined or issued through mining.
Pre-minedA pre-mined coin. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (tokens) which are issued through mining, and a certain number of coins (tokens) have been created and distributed among certain users at the start of the project.
The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the beginning of the year)The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase compared to the start of the year.
The growth rate of the market (as a % compared to the beginning of the year)The market growth (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the start of the year.
Increase in market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period)Increase in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many USD million did market capitalization increase over the period.
The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period)Rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase over the period.
The market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period)Market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the previous period.
Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assetsNumber of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. At the time when this glossary was compiled over 1,070 cryptocurrencies and digital assets were circulating on the market.
Average market capitalizationAverage market capitalization, i.e. the ratio of the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets to their number.
Token return Performance of funds spent on buying tokens or the ratio of the current token price to the token sale price, i.e. performance of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token sale, if listed on an exchange for USD.
ETH reward – current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token saleAlternative performance indicator of funds spent on buying tokens during the ICO or the ratio of the current ETH rate to its rate at the start of the token sale, i.e. if instead of buying tokens $1 was spent on buying ETH at its rate at the start of the token sale and then it was sold at the current ETH rate.
BTC reward– current dollar value of $1 spent on buying tokens during the token saleSimilar to the above: Alternative performance indicator of funds spent on buying tokens during the token sale, i.e. if instead of buying tokens $1 was spent on buying BTC at its rate at the start of the token sale and then it was sold at the current BTC rate.
Token/ETH reward This ratio describes the backer’s economic benefits and disadvantages resulting from buying tokens during the token sale relative to buying ETH. If the result is over 1, the backer spent his funds more efficiently on buying tokens than if he were to have spent his funds on ETH.
Token/BTC reward This ratio describes the backer’s economic benefits and disadvantages resulting from buying tokens during the token sale relative to buying BTC. If the result is over 1, the backer spent his funds more efficiently on buying tokens than if he were to have spent his funds on BTC.
ZAK-n Crypto indexThe index is calculated as a percentage and represents a ratio between the 24-hour trading volume (transactions) on cryptocurrency exchanges per day (Volume 24h) for n dominant cryptocurrencies to their total market capitalization.

ZAK-4 Crypto index calculations include four dominant cryptocurrencies with the greatest market capitalization: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple.

ZAK-8 Crypto index calculations include the trading volume and market capitalization for eight cryptocurrencies.


Disclaimer: While the information in this document is believed to be accurate, ICOBox makes no representations or warranties, express or implied, with respect to the completeness or accuracy of the information contained herein. The information presented in this document may include certain statements, estimates and projections. Such statements, estimates and projections reflect various assumptions by ICOBox concerning anticipated trends, which assumptions may or may not materialize. No representations are made as to the accuracy of such statements, estimates or projections, and actual performance may be materially different from that set forth in such statements, estimates or projections. Prospective financial results may be affected by fluctuating economic and political conditions and are dependent upon the occurrence of future events that cannot be assured. ICOBox makes no warranty or assurance regarding the achievability of projections or the data, information and assumptions relied upon herein. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer to sell securities, cryptocurrency or tokens, nor does it contain any recommendations or advice on any investments in any particular company or named assets. ICOBox expressly disclaims any and all liability for any representations, expressed or implied, contained in, or omitted from, this material. ICOBox is a provider of SaaS solutions for companies seeking to sell their products via distribution of tokens (ICO). ICOBox does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports and buy any named assets.