Please see our analysis of the cryptocurrency market movements during 2018, with special focus placed on the insight into the changes taking place in May 2018, most notably May 21-27, 2018.
Information as of May 28, 2018
This report was created by:
- Professor Dmitrii Kornilov, Doctor of Economics, Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, and Leading Analyst at ICOBox;
- Dima Zaitsev, PhD in Economics, Head of International Public Relations and Business Analytics Department Chief at ICOBox;
- Nick Evdokimov, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
- Mike Raitsyn, Vision Director of Snowfox Technology
- Anar Babaev, Co-Founder of ICOBox;
- Daria Generalova, Co-Founder of ICOBox
This report presents data on the cryptocurrency market changes during 2018. Special emphasis has been placed on an analysis of the changes that have taken place in May 2018, including over the past week (May 21-27, 2018).
1. General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month, quarter). Market trends
1.1 General cryptocurrency and digital assets market analysis (by week, month)
Table 1.1. Trends in capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and main cryptocurrencies from March 1, 2018, to May 27, 2018*
|№||Parameter||1-Mar-18||1-Apr-18||MoM, %||1-May-18||DoD, %||6-May-18||DoD, %||13-May-18||DoD, %||20-May-18||DoD, %||27-May-18||DoD, %|
|1||Total market capitalization, USD billion||440.0||263.9||-40.0%||423.2||60.4%||467.2||10.4%||390.0||-16.5%||376.7||-3.4%||328.8||-12.7%|
|2||Altcoin market capitalization, USD billion||264.6||145.2||-45.1%||265.8||83.1%||299.7||12.8%||245.0||-18.3%||235.6||-3.8%||203.2||-13.8%|
|Altcoin dominance, %||60.1%||55.0%||–||62.8%||–||64.1%||–||62.8%||–||62.5%||–||61.8%||–|
|3||Bitcoin price, $||10 385.0||7 003.1||-32.6%||9 251.5||32.1%||9 845.3||6.4%||8 515.5||-13.5%||8 247.0||-3.2%||7 362.1||-10.7%|
|Bitcoin market capitalization, USD billion||175.4||118.7||-32.3%||157.4||32.6%||167.5||6.5%||145.0||-13.4%||140.6||-3.1%||125.6||-10.7%|
|Bitcoin dominance, %||39.9%||45.0%||–||37.2%||–||35.9%||–||37.2%||–||37.3%||–||38.2%||–|
|4||Ethereum price, $||856.0||397.3||-53.6%||670.5||68.8%||816.1||21.7%||687.2||-15.8%||697.9||1.6%||588.5||-15.7%|
|Ethereum market capitalization, USD billion||83.8||39.1||-53.3%||66.5||69.8%||81.0||21.8%||68.3||-15.7%||69.5||1.7%||58.7||-15.6%|
|Ethereum dominance, %||19.0%||14.8%||–||15.7%||–||17.3%||–||17.5%||–||18.4%||–||17.8%||–|
|5||Bitcoin Cash price, $||1 204.8||688.0||-42.9%||1 348.6||96.0%||1 758.8||30.4%||1 474.8||-16.2%||1 183.2||-19.8%||1 009.2||-14.7%|
|Bitcoin Cash market capitalization, USD billion||20.5||11.7||-42.7%||23.1||96.6%||30.1||30.5%||25.3||-16.1%||20.3||-19.7%||17.3||-14.6%|
|Bitcoin Cash dominance, %||4.7%||4.4%||–||5.5%||–||6.4%||–||6.5%||–||5.4%||–||5.3%||–|
|6||Litecoin price, $||203.1||116.9||-42.4%||148.3||26.9%||178.0||20.0%||141.8||-20.3%||135.3||-4.6%||118.5||-12.4%|
|Litecoin market capitalization, USD billion||11.3||6.5||-42.0%||8.4||27.9%||10.0||20.2%||8.0||-20.2%||7.7||-4.4%||6.7||-12.2%|
|Litecoin dominance, %||2.6%||2.5%||–||2.0%||–||2.1%||–||2.1%||–||2.0%||–||2.0%||–|
|7||Volume (24h) 4 crypto, USD billion||10.1||6.4||-36.9%||11.8||84.2%||12.9||9.5%||9.7||-25.0%||8.4||-12.9%||6.5||-22.4%|
|Market cap 4 crypto, USD billion||315.1||189.7||-39.8%||279.7||47.5%||314.1||12.3%||265.9||-15.3%||256.8||-3.4%||225.5||-12.2%|
|ZAK-4 Crypto index**||3.2%||3.4%||–||4.2%||–||4.1%||–||3.6%||–||3.3%||–||2.9%||–|
|4 crypto dominance, %||71.6%||71.9%||–||66.1%||–||67.2%||–||68.2%||–||68.2%||–||68.6%||–|
|8||Volume (24h) 8 crypto, USD billion||11.3||7.2||-36.3%||16.0||121.3%||15.2||-5.1%||11.9||-21.5%||10.1||-15.1%||7.8||-22.5%|
|Market cap 8 crypto, USD billion||349.3||208.7||-40.2%||319.5||53.1%||356.4||11.6%||299.8||-15.9%||288.1||-3.9%||253.5||-12.0%|
|ZAK-8 Crypto index***||3.2%||3.5%||–||5.0%||–||4.3%||–||4.0%||–||3.5%||–||3.1%||–|
|8 crypto dominance, %||79.4%||79.1%||–||75.5%||–||76.3%||–||76.9%||–||76.5%||–||77.1%||–|
* Data as of May 27, 2018 (all figures calculated at 03:00 UTC)
** Since December 1, 2017, the ZAK-4 index has been calculated using the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash.
*** When calculating the ZAK-8 index, the cryptocurrencies with the largest capitalization are used. At present (May 27, 2018), the cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Litecoin, Stellar, and EOS are used to calculate the ZAK-8 index.
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
Over the past week (May 21-27, 2018) cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased, and as of 03:00 UTC on May 27 equaled $328.8 billion (see Table 1.1). The drop compared to the start of the month equals around $100 billion.
The dominance of the four and eight largest cryptocurrencies as of 03:00 UTC on May 27, 2018, equaled 68.6% and 77.1%, respectively, with bitcoin dominance increasing to 38.2% (see Table 1.1). Despite the overall reduction in cryptocurrency market capitalization, considerable growth was seen last week in the prices of certain cryptocurrencies from the third (top 500) echelon by capitalization, such as Docademic (+288%), Cashaa (+122.5%), ShareX (+51.48%), LALA World (+50.83%), Alphacat (+44.82%), Aurora DAO (+44.44%) and others.
Last week (May 21-27, 2018) cryptocurrency market capitalization fluctuated from $392.7 billion (max) to $320.1 billion (min) (Fig. 1), i.e. within a range of $72.6 billion. For its part, Bitcoin capitalization fluctuated from $145.9 billion (max) to $125.5 billion (min), i.e. within a range of $20.4 billion. In this regard, a very high correlation between the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market as a whole and Bitcoin has been seen for several weeks in a row (see Fig. 1). The maximum and minimum points and the overall configuration of the cryptocurrency market capitalization charts (with their characteristic “steps”) show an almost complete correspondence. There is a clear downward trend, and one gets the impression that it is not happening without market manipulation. Today (May 28, 2018) there was another fall by $17 billion over two hours, with cryptocurrency market capitalization falling to $310.7 billion. This collapse may be partially due to a sharp increase in the volume of trading in the pair ETH/USD on the bitfinex exchange.
Figure 1. Capitalization of the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin since May 21, 2018
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
The rise and fall of cryptocurrency prices over the past week (May 21-27, 2018)
During the period from May 21-27, 2018, the change in the prices of cryptocurrencies in the top 500 ranged from -63.63% (Fitrova) to +288% (Docademic).
The price of Docademic also increased by 160% the week before last (May 14-20, 2018), i.e. over the past two weeks this cryptocurrency has seen a price growth of more than 400%. Docademic is a modern, decentralized healthcare platform on which patients and the medical community can interact. The price of the coin increased by a record 160% after the favorable statements made by crypto expert John McAfee (Twitter).
The price of 50 cryptocurrencies and digital assets from the top 500 showed growth, including only eight from the top 100.
This past week the number of cryptocurrencies with a capitalization of more than $1 billion decreased from 25 to 22, with TRON being the only one to show a slight price appreciation (+1.71%). All the other coins showed a downward adjustment: Bytecoin (-30.30%), Zcash (-23.29%), Cardano (-20.06%), etc.
Total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell by 14% ($53 billion) over the week (below Fig. 1.1).
The coins and tokens from the top 200 that demonstrated the largest price growth are given in Fig. 2.
Biggest gainers and losers over the week (May 21-27, 2018)
The prices of some cryptocurrencies may fluctuate from -50% to +50% over the course of a single day. Therefore, when analyzing cryptocurrency price trends, it is advisable to use their average daily amounts on various cryptoexchanges.
Below we consider the 10 cryptocurrencies that demonstrated the most significant change in price over the past week (Fig. 2-3). In this regard, only those coins and tokens included in the top 200 (Fig. 2) and top 100 (Fig. 3) in terms of market capitalization (according to the data of coinmarketcap.com) were considered.
Figure 2. Largest growth in prices over the past week
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
The change in price was calculated based on average daily data
Tables 1.2 and 1.3 show the possible factors or events that might have influenced the fluctuation in prices for certain cryptocurrencies. Table 1.4 shows the possible factors or events that might have influenced the cryptocurrency market in general.
Table 1.2. Factors or events that might have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week
|№||Coins and tokens||Symbol||Price growth over the week, %||Average price in $ on May 27, 2018||Market capitalization, USD billion||Factors or events that might have led to a growth in cryptocurrency prices over the past week|
|1||Docademic||MTC||288.00%||$0.252614||0.07||Docademic is a modern, decentralized platform on which patients and the medical community can interact. The price of the coin increased after favorable statements made by crypto expert John McAfee Twitter.
MaidSafe announced the launch of its new consensus algorithm, which represents the main part of the project. Against this backdrop, its price demonstrated growth despite negative market trends Twitter
ZenCash began to be traded on the major exchange Binance, which allowed it not only to maintain its price but even to appreciate by 20% over the week Twitter
The CyberMiles price also increased due to positive news on the issue for sale of special validators for this blockchain Twitter
MediBloc (MED) is a digital currency created especially for the medical ecosystem, which will act as a means of settlement and incentive on the MediBloc platform.
Lympo is an ecosystem dedicated to a healthy lifestyle that uses blockchain technology to connect leading players in the healthcare industry, insurance companies, fitness centers, fitness apps, clinics and employers.
Nexus (NXS) is a decentralized cryptocurrency that makes quick payments possible. The main distinguishing feature of the Nexus cryptocurrency is the system of checks and balances that allow a payment sent to the wrong address to be returned.
Bibox Token is a digital currency created by an exchange that simultaneously acts as both a token for the payment of transaction fees inside the exchange and a speculative instrument.
Blocknet was created on XBridge, the first peer-to-peer protocol that enables interaction between nodes from different blockchains.
The Mixin project has the goal of allowing the launch of any blockchain apps on mobile devices and creating a convenient, fast transaction network.
A depreciation in price was seen last week for 450 coins and tokens from the top 500 cryptocurrencies and digital assets by capitalization. The ten cryptocurrencies from the top 100 that experienced the most noticeable drops in price are shown in Fig. 3 and Table 1.3.
Figure 3. Largest fall in prices over the past week
Table 1.3. Factors or events that might have led to a fall in cryptocurrency prices over the past week
|№||Coins and tokens||Symbol||Fall in price over the week, %||Average price in $ on May 27, 2018||Market capitalization, USD billion||Factors or events that might have led to a fall in cryptocurrency prices over the past week|
|1||Bytecoin||BCN||-30.30%||$0.006192||1.14||The coins from the top 100 fell in tandem this week, with a very small difference between the 10 coins that experienced the largest fall (27%-30%). We remind you that:
Bytecoin (BCN) is one of the first completely anonymous cryptocurrencies.
Kyber Network (KNC) is a decentralized platform that performs the functions of a currency exchange and payment system.
Augur is a decentralized platform based on Ethereum blockchain that allows any network participant to make forecasts about the outcome of any world event.
FunFair is a decentralized peer-to-peer platform based on Ethereum blockchain that makes it possible to create an online casino in several clicks.
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
The change in price was calculated based on average daily data
Cryptocurrency market capitalization only changed slightly over the week.
Table 1.4 shows events that took place from May 21-27, 2018, that had an impact on both the prices of the dominant cryptocurrencies and the market in general, with an indication of their nature and type of impact.
Table 1.4. Key events of the week having an influence on cryptocurrency prices, May 21-27, 2018
|№||Factors and events
(link to source)
|Date of news||Description||Nature of impact||Type of impact|
|1.||Alibaba CEO Jack Ma Says Bitcoin and Not Blockchain Is the Bubble [source: Bitcoinist]||May 21, 2018||The founder of the online giant Alibaba, Jack Ma, has announced that blockchain may solve the problems of privacy and security at all levels of society — government, corporate and personal, since “we live in an era of big data.”||Market ⇑
|2.||A Bank in Argentina Surprises Everyone by Using Bitcoin for Cross-Border Payments [source: Coinspeaker]||May 22, 2018||Banco Masventas concluded an agreement with Bitex for this purpose. Clients of the credit institution will already be able to use the new service at the end of this week. Bank management is counting on the innovation speeding up cross-border payments and lowering transaction fees.||BTC ⇑||Favorable|
|3.||Japan’s Tokyo-based Bank Mitsubishi UJF Testing an In-House Digital Currency ‘MUJF Coin’ [source: Coinspeaker]||May 22, 2018||As the largest operational bank in Japan, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group will be the first financial institution of its kind to have its own digital currency, which will be used by the 100,000 clients of the MUFG retail bank.||Market ⇑||Favorable|
|4.||Bitcoin Slips Below $8K to a 35-Day Low, Overall Crypto Market in Correction [source: Coinspeaker]||May 23, 2018||Bitcoin has fallen below $7,600, a new low over the last month and a half.
Ether dropped below $600, Ripple — below $0.6, and Bitcoin Cash — below $1,000.
|5.||India Considers 18% Tax on Cryptocurrency Trading as Blockchain Startups Leave [source: Newsbtc]||May 23, 2018||That being said, the country still does not have clear rules regulating the market of digital currencies. Pursuant to the new rules, the purchase and sale of cryptocurrencies will be seen as the supply of goods. The cost of the coins can be determined based on transaction costs in Indian rupees.||Market||Unfavorable|
To analyze trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges, the ZAK-n Crypto index is calculated (see the Glossary). The values of the ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are presented in Tables 1.1, 1.5.a, and 1.5.b. In May the 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the four dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple) equaled from $6.4 billion to $16.4 billion (Table 1.5.a). The value of the daily ZAK-4 Crypto fluctuated from 2.8% to 5.8% of capitalization. The highest trading volume was seen on May 3.
Table 1.5.a. Daily ZAK-4 Crypto index calculation (from May 1-27, 2018)
|Crypto||Bitcoin (BTC)||Ethereum (ETH)||Bitcoin Cash (BCH)||Ripple (XRP)||4 Crypto|
|Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Volume (24h) 4 crypto||Market cap 4 crypto||ZAK-4 Crypto index|
|Date*||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||USD billion||USD billion||%|
|May 27, 2018||7 362||4.1||125.6||589||1.8||58.7||1 009||0.5||17.3||0.61||0.2||24.0||6.5||225.5||2.9%|
|May 26, 2018||7 486||4.1||127.7||587||1.7||58.5||1 016||0.5||17.4||0.61||0.2||23.9||6.4||227.6||2.8%|
|May 25, 2018||7 592||4.9||129.5||602||2.1||60.0||1 073||0.6||18.4||0.63||0.3||24.8||7.9||232.7||3.4%|
|May 24, 2018||7 561||6.0||128.9||585||2.8||58.2||1 005||0.8||17.2||0.60||0.4||23.5||10.1||227.9||4.4%|
|May 23, 2018||8 037||6.5||137.0||647||3.0||64.4||1 142||0.9||19.6||0.65||0.5||25.4||10.8||246.4||4.4%|
|May 22, 2018||8 420||5.1||143.5||700||2.2||69.7||1 234||0.6||21.1||0.68||0.2||26.7||8.2||261.1||3.2%|
|May 21, 2018||8 522||5.2||145.3||717||2.0||71.4||1 296||0.6||22.2||0.70||0.3||27.5||8.0||266.3||3.0%|
|May 20, 2018||8 247||5.2||140.6||698||2.2||69.5||1 183||0.8||20.3||0.68||0.3||26.5||8.4||256.8||3.3%|
|May 19, 2018||8 256||4.7||140.7||695||2.0||69.2||1 207||0.6||20.7||0.68||0.2||26.7||7.6||257.2||2.9%|
|May 18, 2018||8 092||5.8||137.9||672||2.3||66.9||1 202||0.9||20.6||0.67||0.3||26.1||9.3||251.4||3.7%|
|May 17, 2018||8 370||5.9||142.6||709||2.4||70.5||1 290||0.8||22.1||0.71||0.3||28.0||9.4||263.2||3.6%|
|May 16, 2018||8 504||6.8||144.9||708||2.5||70.4||1 342||0.9||23.0||0.70||0.4||27.3||10.6||265.6||4.0%|
|May 15, 2018||8 705||6.7||148.3||731||2.5||72.7||1 430||0.9||24.5||0.74||0.4||29.0||10.6||274.4||3.9%|
|May 14, 2018||8 713||7.4||148.4||733||3.0||72.8||1 489||1.2||25.5||0.74||0.6||29.2||12.1||275.9||4.4%|
|May 13, 2018||8 515||5.9||145.0||687||2.4||68.3||1 475||0.9||25.3||0.70||0.5||27.4||9.7||265.9||3.6%|
|May 12, 2018||8 441||6.8||143.7||680||2.7||67.6||1 376||1.5||23.6||0.69||0.6||26.9||11.5||261.7||4.4%|
|May 11, 2018||9 053||8.5||154.1||727||3.3||72.2||1 527||1.5||26.2||0.76||1.0||29.6||14.3||282.2||5.1%|
|May 10, 2018||9 326||6.9||158.8||753||2.7||74.8||1 646||1.1||28.2||0.80||0.4||31.5||11.1||293.2||3.8%|
|May 9, 2018||9 224||7.2||157.0||753||2.9||74.8||1 608||1.3||27.5||0.81||0.6||31.9||12.0||291.2||4.1%|
|May 8, 2018||9 381||7.4||159.7||755||2.9||75.0||1 673||1.1||28.6||0.83||0.5||32.6||11.9||295.9||4.0%|
|May 7, 2018||9 646||7.4||164.2||793||4.3||78.8||1 767||1.4||30.2||0.87||0.6||34.1||13.7||307.3||4.5%|
|May 6, 2018||9 845||7.2||167.5||816||3.1||81.0||1 759||1.9||30.1||0.90||0.6||35.4||12.9||314.1||4.1%|
|May 5, 2018||9 700||7.7||165.1||785||3.0||77.9||1 517||1.7||26.0||0.90||0.7||35.1||13.0||304.0||4.3%|
|May 4, 2018||9 696||8.2||165.0||777||3.5||77.1||1 501||1.0||25.7||0.88||1.0||34.5||13.7||302.2||4.5%|
|May 3, 2018||9 234||10.2||157.1||687||4.2||68.1||1 460||1.3||25.0||0.86||0.7||33.6||16.4||283.8||5.8%|
|May 2, 2018||9 105||7.6||154.9||674||2.8||66.8||1 354||1.2||23.2||0.84||0.5||32.9||12.1||277.7||4.4%|
|May 1, 2018||9 251||7.7||157.4||670||2.7||66.5||1 349||0.8||23.1||0.84||0.6||32.8||11.8||279.7||4.2%|
All figures given as of 03:00 UTC of the corresponding day
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
The 24-hour trading volumes (Volume 24h) for the eight dominant cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Litecoin, Stellar, EOS, and Cardano) dropped to $7.8 billion by the end of last week (Table 1.5.b), or 3.1% of their market capitalization, i.e. trading volumes fell below the level at the start of the month. The ZAK-4 Crypto and ZAK-8 Crypto indices are considered in more detail in Tables 1.5.a and 1.5.b.
Table 1.5.b. Daily ZAK-8 Crypto index calculation (continuation of Table 1.5.а)
|Crypto||Stellar (XLM)||Cardano (ADA)||EOS (EOS)||Litecoin (LTC)||8 Crypto|
|Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Price Open||Volume (24h)||Market cap||Volume (24h)||Market cap||ZAK-8 Crypto index|
|Date||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||$||USD billion||USD billion||USD billion||USD billion||%|
|May 27, 2018||0.28||0.05||5.3||0.196||0.06||5.1||12.3||0.94||10.8||119||0.26||6.7||7.8||253.5||3.1%|
|May 26, 2018||0.29||0.04||5.4||0.200||0.06||5.2||12.3||1.09||10.8||119||0.28||6.8||7.9||255.7||3.1%|
|May 25, 2018||0.29||0.05||5.4||0.209||0.08||5.4||12.8||1.62||11.2||123||0.30||6.9||9.9||261.7||3.8%|
|May 24, 2018||0.28||0.05||5.2||0.203||0.13||5.3||10.9||2.16||9.6||119||0.35||6.8||12.7||254.7||5.0%|
|May 23, 2018||0.30||0.04||5.6||0.224||0.12||5.8||12.3||1.59||10.8||129||0.37||7.3||13.0||275.9||4.7%|
|May 22, 2018||0.32||0.03||5.9||0.249||0.08||6.5||13.5||0.99||11.8||134||0.29||7.6||9.6||292.9||3.3%|
|May 21, 2018||0.33||0.03||6.2||0.256||0.09||6.6||14.0||1.06||12.2||140||0.31||7.9||9.5||299.3||3.2%|
|May 20, 2018||0.32||0.03||5.9||0.243||0.10||6.3||13.2||1.23||11.4||135||0.32||7.7||10.1||288.1||3.5%|
|May 19, 2018||0.32||0.02||5.9||0.246||0.06||6.4||13.0||1.02||11.3||136||0.31||7.7||9.0||288.5||3.1%|
|May 18, 2018||0.31||0.03||5.8||0.243||0.08||6.3||12.4||1.34||10.7||133||0.37||7.5||11.1||281.7||3.9%|
|May 17, 2018||0.34||0.03||6.2||0.257||0.08||6.7||12.9||1.64||11.1||140||0.32||7.9||11.4||295.0||3.9%|
|May 16, 2018||0.35||0.04||6.4||0.259||0.11||6.7||12.9||1.53||11.1||140||0.35||7.9||12.6||297.7||4.2%|
|May 15, 2018||0.37||0.04||6.9||0.274||0.10||7.1||14.1||1.37||12.0||147||0.42||8.3||12.5||308.8||4.1%|
|May 14, 2018||0.38||0.06||7.0||0.286||0.16||7.4||14.9||1.70||12.8||145||0.58||8.2||14.6||311.3||4.7%|
|May 13, 2018||0.36||0.07||6.7||0.272||0.18||7.0||14.2||1.59||12.1||142||0.38||8.0||11.9||299.8||4.0%|
|May 12, 2018||0.31||0.09||5.8||0.263||0.26||6.8||15.0||3.09||12.7||137||0.41||7.8||15.4||294.9||5.2%|
|May 11, 2018||0.35||0.08||6.6||0.297||0.35||7.7||17.5||2.92||14.8||149||0.53||8.4||18.2||319.7||5.7%|
|May 10, 2018||0.38||0.04||7.0||0.324||0.12||8.4||18.0||1.29||15.2||157||0.43||8.9||13.0||332.7||3.9%|
|May 9, 2018||0.39||0.05||7.2||0.328||0.18||8.5||18.1||1.20||15.3||160||0.45||9.0||13.9||331.1||4.2%|
|May 8, 2018||0.40||0.05||7.4||0.336||0.14||8.7||18.0||1.45||15.1||165||0.47||9.3||14.0||336.4||4.2%|
|May 7, 2018||0.41||0.05||7.7||0.350||0.17||9.1||17.7||2.00||14.8||172||0.57||9.7||16.5||348.6||4.7%|
|May 6, 2018||0.43||0.04||8.0||0.366||0.15||9.5||17.7||1.43||14.8||178||0.63||10.0||15.2||356.4||4.3%|
|May 5, 2018||0.43||0.04||8.0||0.361||0.14||9.4||17.1||1.61||14.3||168||0.74||9.5||15.6||345.1||4.5%|
|May 4, 2018||0.44||0.05||8.1||0.371||0.17||9.6||17.7||1.75||14.8||160||0.63||9.0||16.3||343.8||4.7%|
|May 3, 2018||0.44||0.08||8.2||0.372||0.30||9.6||19.3||2.27||16.0||152||0.62||8.6||19.7||326.2||6.0%|
|May 2, 2018||0.44||0.07||8.2||0.358||0.27||9.3||18.9||2.41||15.7||148||0.35||8.4||15.2||319.2||4.8%|
|May 1, 2018||0.43||0.15||7.9||0.343||0.37||8.9||17.7||3.33||14.6||148||0.34||8.4||16.0||319.5||5.0%|
Starting on May 22, Huobi, one of the largest cryptoexchanges, began issuing the new consolidated HUOBI 10 index, which shows the trends of 10 digital assets with a high market value and liquidity. The digital assets are split into four categories: coins, platforms, applications, and asset tokens. The base point of the HUOBI 10 is 1000. The index has fallen by 100 points over the past five days, equaling around 900 points on the morning of May 28, 2018.
Table 1.6 gives a list of events, information on which appeared last week, which could impact both the prices of specific cryptocurrencies and the market in general.
Table 1.6. Events that could have an influence on cryptocurrency prices in the future
|Factors and events
(link to source)
|Date of news||Description||Nature of impact||Type of impact|
|1.||Coinbase Looking to Apply for Federal Banking License: Report [source: Coingeek]||May 21, 2018||The license would give Coinbase independence and freedom of action in the US but would also bring institutional obligations. Not all fintech companies are willing to take this step.||Market ⇑
|2.||Ohio Could Become Next US State to Legally Recognize Blockchain Data [source: Coindesk]||May 22, 2018||Ohio may become the second US state to recognize a blockchain entry as legal property. Similar laws have already been discussed in other large states.||Market ⇑
|3.||German Stock Exchange Ponders Offering Bitcoin Trading to Clients [source: Btcmanager]||May 26, 2018||Deutsche Börse will become the first bank in Europe to mine bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In December of last year, contracts were issued by the Chicago trading floors CME and CBOE.||Market ⇑
1.2 Market trends
The weekly cryptocurrency and digital asset market trends from December 31, 2017, to May 27, 2018, are presented as graphs (Fig. 1.1-1.5).
Table 1.7. Legends and descriptions of the graphs
|Total cryptocurrency market capitalization, USD million||Fig. 1.1||This figure shows cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization trends from December 31, 2017.|
|The rate of market change (as a % to the beginning of 2017)||Fig. 1.1||This figure shows the % change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization compared to December 31, 2017.|
|Change in the market capitalization (in USD million compared to previous period)||Fig. 1.2||This figure shows the weekly change in USD million (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017.|
|The rate of market change (as a % compared to the previous period)||Fig. 1.2||This figure shows the % of weekly change (increase or decrease) in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017.|
|Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets||Fig. 1.3||This figure shows the trends in the increase of the number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets circulating on cryptocurrency exchanges. On January 1, 2017, their number was 617, and as of May 27, 2018, this number had already reached 1,559 (coins and tokens on which there is information on capitalization and/or turnover were considered).|
|Average market capitalization, USD million||Fig. 1.3||This figure reflects the growth in the average cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization from December 31, 2017, i.e. the ratio between the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets and their number.|
|Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization||Fig. 1.4, 1.5||This figure shows the time trend (forecast) change in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization.|
* NB! Average daily data are given in the graphs below. For this reason, the figures in the graphs may differ from the data in Table 1.1, where all figures were calculated at 03:00 UTC.
These differences in the values may be significant during periods of high cryptocurrency market volatility.
Data source: coinmarketcap.com
Figure 1.1. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization*
Average daily data according to the data of coinmarketcap.com)
Figure 1.1 shows a graph of the weekly cryptocurrency market change from December 31, 2017, to May 27, 2018. Over this period, market capitalization dropped from $572.5 billion to $326.4 billion, i.e. by 43%. Last week (May 21-27, 2018) cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased from $379.3 billion to $326.4 billion (as of May 27, 2018, based on the average figures from coinmarketcap.com).
Figure 1.2. Change in market capitalization
The market is susceptible to sudden and drastic fluctuations. During the first week of January, market capitalization increased by approximately $250 billion, or 44%. The largest weekly fall in the first quarter of 2018 equaled $136 billion, or 23%, during the period from January 28-February 4, 2018.
Nine of the thirteen weeks in the first quarter of 2018 were “in the red”, i.e. capitalization fell based on the results of each of these weeks. In the second quarter, the market grew over the first five weeks, followed by a three-week downward adjustment. During the period from May 6-13 the market regressed by 16% (-$72 billion), then by another 2%, and last week the fall equaled around 14%, or $52.8 billion (with due account of average daily data, see Fig. 1.2).
Figure 1.3. Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets
Data source: coinmarketcap.com (coins and tokens on which there is information on capitalization and/or turnover were considered)
Since December 31, 2017, the total number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets considered when calculating market capitalization has increased from 1,335 to 1,559. Over the past week their number increased by eight, from 1,551 to 1,559, and average capitalization equaled $209.4 million. In total, over the past month 90 new coins and tokens have appeared on coinmarketcap.com. However, it should be noted that a number of other coins and tokens were also excluded from the list. From among the tokens that were added to coinmarketcap.com last week, Libra Credit, Patron, IoTeX, RED, Silent Notary, and Open Platform showed high trading volumes.
Figure 1.4 and 1.5. Forecast of total cryptocurrency market capitalization
The Consensus 2018 conference held in New York on May 14-16, 2018, which was expected to cause new positive trends, did not result in a growth in cryptocurrency market capitalization, with the downward adjustment of the cryptocurrency market over the past three weeks equaling around $140 billion. There were many “favorable” and “unfavorable” information events during this period. We give several of them below that could have led to a fall in capitalization:
- The authorities in Thailand published a draft law on regulation of cryptocurrency circulation that entered into force on May 13. According to this law, all sellers of cryptocurrencies will be required to register with the Security Exchange Commission (SEC) ;
- The investigation into allegations of fraud (falsification of balance sheets and deceiving investors) continues at Upbit, one of the largest cryptoexchanges in South Korea. The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) has been joined in the investigation by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) ;
- Court proceedings related to the ban by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on other banks providing services to cryptocurrency exchanges are underway in India. Several petitions have been filed with the Supreme Court, and hearings have been scheduled for July 20 ;
- The Indian authorities are introducing an 18% tax on cryptocurrency trading 
- On May 24, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) warned eight cryptoexchanges in the country not to facilitate trading in digital tokens classified as securities or futures contracts without the permission of the MAS. It also cautioned issuers of initial coin offerings (ICOs) of the need to comply with the rules of the SFA (Securities and Futures Act) 
- The British Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will check the activity of 24 cryptocurrency firms to “determine whether they might be carrying on regulated activities that require FCA authorization” ;
- South Korea is beginning an investigation into ICOs , despite reports in March based on the data of The Korea Times that the financial authorities had prepared a plan that would make it possible to propose initial coin offerings (ICOs). You will recall that in September 2017 ICOs were banned in the country, but this did not stop local startups from collecting funds.
- A hacker stole $18 million in an attack on the Bitcoin Gold network.
One gets the impression that, on the one hand, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a certain degree of media pressure in connection with the regulatory processes being implemented by the state authorities in several countries, and, on the other hand, that major players are taking part in price manipulation. All this against the backdrop of preparations of platforms for the entry of major institutional participants onto the market:
- British broker Crypto Facilities launched trading of the first Ether futures in the world. According to company representatives, market participants can open both long and short positions and try to fill the gap in the market.
- Pursuant to the data of coindesk.com, BitGo will open a cryptocurrency custodial service for institutional players. The cryptocurrency startup will offer three tiers of custody: “qualified custody”, offered through Kingdom Trust, “institutional custody”, allowing clients to manage wallets connected and disconnected from the internet, and self-managed custody.
- Coinbase wrote in Twitter on May 15, 2018, “As institutions continue to enter the cryptocurrency market, we are committed to building the products and services that uniquely meet their needs”, i.e. the company has issued new products created especially for institutional players;
- LMAX is launching a cryptoexchange for institutional participants. LMAX Exchange Group, the largest English fintech company and the owner of the LMAX Exchange (multilateral trading facility (MTF) for forex trading), announced on May 21, 2018, that it has introduced the first institutional exchange of five cryptocurrencies on LMAX Digital (Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Ethereum and Ripple). At first the LMAX Digital infrastructure will operate at the London division, with plans to subsequently open LMAX Digital in Tokyo and New York.
- Lightspeed Venture Partners is considering the possibility of creating a new cryptocurrency fund.
- The main US market regulator (CFTC) has issued guidelines for cryptocurrency derivatives.
- The German bank Deutsche Börse will be the first bank in Europe to add bitcoin futures and futures of other cryptocurrencies.
All these factors indicate that the cryptocurrency market can expect rapid growth over the long term in connection with the appearance of major institutional players who will fight for spheres of influence.
And, in conclusion, one more news item: the oldest Chinese bitcoin exchange is returning to the cryptocurrency market. BTCC will unveil a new exchange platform, the BTCC Exchange, in June 2018. The announcement of BTCC indicates that “Once launched, we will support trading pairs such as BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC / USD, ETH, BCH, LTC / BTC, etc.”
Annex – Glossary
|Market capitalization||Value of an asset calculated based on its current market (exchange) price. This economic indicator is used to assess the total aggregate value of market instruments, players, and markets. [Source: https://en.wikipedia.org].|
|Cryptocurrency market capitalization||The market value of an individual coin or token circulating on the market.|
|Total cryptocurrency market capitalization||The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies and digital assets, i.e. the aggregate market value of cryptocurrencies and digital assets (coins and tokens) circulating on the market.|
|Dominance||Market share, i.e. the ratio of market capitalization of a particular cryptocurrency (coin, token) to total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Expressed as a %.|
|A coin that is not mineable. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (coins, tokens) which cannot be mined or issued through mining.|
|Pre-mined||A pre-mined coin. The term is used for cryptocurrencies (coins, tokens) which are issued through mining, and a certain number of coins (tokens) have been created and distributed among certain users at the start of the project.|
|The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the beginning of the year)||The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase compared to the start of the year.|
|The growth rate of the market (as a % to the beginning of the year)||The rate of market growth (as a % compared to the start of the year), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the start of the year.|
|Increase in market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period)||Increase in cryptocurrency and digital asset market capitalization (in USD million compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many USD million did market capitalization increase over the period.|
|The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period)||The rate of market increase (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many % points did market capitalization increase over the period.|
|The market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period)||The market growth rate (as a % compared to the previous period), i.e. by how many times did market capitalization grow compared to the previous period.|
|Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets||Number of cryptocurrencies and digital assets. At the beginning of 2018 over 1,300 cryptocurrencies and digital assets (coins and tokens) were circulating on the market.|
|Average market capitalization||Average market capitalization, i.e. the ratio of the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and digital assets to their number.|
|ZAK-n Crypto index||The index is calculated as a percentage and represents a ratio between the trading volume (transactions) on cryptocurrency exchanges per day (Volume 24h) for n dominant cryptocurrencies to their total market capitalization.
ZAK-4 Crypto index calculations include four dominant cryptocurrencies with the greatest market capitalization: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Ripple.
ZAK-8 Crypto index calculations include the trading volume and market capitalization for eight cryptocurrencies.
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