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The production for the Bitcoin price movements after the halving has been updated. PlanB has explained how BTC price can reach $100,000 in 2021.
Bitcoin price started by gaining considerably. A few days ago, the flagship token surged past the $10,000 level before correcting to settle in the upper $9,000s levels. That dip has made some commentators predict that the price will drop below the current yearly lows.
But, the author of the most popularly-cited BTC price prediction models, PlanB, disagrees entirely with this prediction. Earlier on February 10, the analyst published an update of their price prediction for the coming several years. There is nothing bearish about it looking at that prediction.
Bitcoin Price Will Hit $100,000 by End of 2021
The optimistic model of predicting the BTC price after the 2020 halving has made analyst PlanB become one of the most cited figures in the industry. Their March 2019 study called “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity” explains a scenario for at least a $55,000 post-halving Bitcoin price.
Based on the annual data, PlanB reaches a more bullish price of $100,000. The date that the analyst gives when BTC will surge to $100K is some point in 2021. As highlighted via Twitter, the analyst has long held the belief that BTC price can top $100,000 in 2021. A January 2019 tweet reveals that PlanB has remained bullish for the long term.
In the meantime, the latest tweets show that PlanB is convinced that a six-figure Bitcoin is still very much possible for 2021.
Bitcoin Price Will Not Plunge Below $6,000
In January 2019, PlanB said that BTC would not plunge below its 200-week moving average during the rest of 2019. Interestingly, it never dropped below that level. The analyst also noted that the price would be around $8,000 at the time of the halving.
But, he has revised some of the previous predictions while maintaining that the real Bull Run will start in 2021 and top $100K by the end of the year. PlanB now does not expect the BTC price to drop below $8,200 at any point this year. Hence, the analyst believes that Bitcoin will not plunge to “$6k or $4k levels that others are predicting now.”
*** Update: my 2 sats on #bitcoin price:
– 2020: btc stays above $8200 (so we are NOT dropping to $6k or $4k levels that others are predicting now)
– May 2020 halving: will be above $10k
– 2021: bull run starts after the halving and tops $100k before Dec 2021#NotFinancialAdvice https://t.co/Zkkma4ZBSd
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 10, 2020
Through the same prediction, the analyst stated that the BTC price would be more than it is today at the time of the halving. The analyst supports the prediction by saying that when the BTC rewards fall to 6.25, Bitcoin will trade for over $10,000. Stock-to-flow is well-designed to show how an asset’s price relates to its scarcity.
It shows the amount of an asset in circulation divided by the amount that is produced annually, and it is normally used to track the price of various precious metals. In that context, Bitcoin has a total fixed supply of 21M coins, and the halving reduces the amount of new supply that enters the market after almost every four years.
In spite of the halving hype, some naysayers say that the stock-to-flow analysis is not reliable in the prediction of Bitcoin price’s future. Joe Weisenthal says that since everyone knows the fundamentals of Bitcoin’s supply in advance, halving is already factored in. He explained:
“In May of 2020, the volume of new Bitcoin creation will be cut in half, and the theory (hope?) is that with the diminished supply, the price will shoot up. You know supply and demand and all that… Markets move on surprises and unknown events, whereas the Bitcoin supply schedule is transparent for the world to see.”
Others like CoinShares’ chief strategy officer, Meltem Demirors, say that the institutionalization and the rise of BTC derivatives may mitigate the effect of Bitcoin’s reducing supply has on its price.