{"id":11915,"date":"2025-10-01T16:00:34","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T16:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/?p=11915"},"modified":"2025-10-01T14:28:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T14:28:14","slug":"robinhood-prediction-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/robinhood-prediction-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"March\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : Robinhood pr\u00e9pare son arriv\u00e9e en Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Londres en premi\u00e8re ligne<\/h2>\n<p>L&rsquo;enjeu est double : un cadre clair et une distribution grand public sur des th\u00e8mes concrets comme les taux d&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat, les \u00e9lections ou les r\u00e9sultats sportifs. C\u00f4t\u00e9 traction, son patron <strong>Vlad Tenev<\/strong> revendique d\u00e9j\u00e0 plusieurs milliards de bets plac\u00e9s aux \u00c9tats-Unis, un signal que le produit a trouv\u00e9 son public.<\/p>\n<p>Au Royaume-Uni, la question centrale est la <strong>classification<\/strong> du produit. Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, ces contrats sont trait\u00e9s comme des d\u00e9riv\u00e9s sous supervision de la CFTC.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"474\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83c\uddec\ud83c\udde7 Robinhood has announced plans to bring prediction markets to the UK and EU. According to <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24HOOD&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$HOOD<\/a>, demand for prediction markets is on the rise in the region. <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Fi8zdPakb3\">pic.twitter.com\/Fi8zdPakb3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; ALLINCRYPTO (@RealAllinCrypto) <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RealAllinCrypto\/status\/1973161593086099606?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 30, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 Londres, selon la structure exacte, ils peuvent relever de la FCA ou \u00eatre assimil\u00e9s \u00e0 des jeux d&rsquo;argent sous l&rsquo;\u00e9gide de la UK Gambling Commission. <a href=\"https:\/\/robinhood.com\/eu\/fr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\">Robinhood<\/a> dit travailler avec <strong>la FCA pour baliser KYC<\/strong>, limites de pertes, affichage de risques et modalit\u00e9s de r\u00e8glement en monnaie fiduciaire.<\/p>\n<p>Techniquement, l&rsquo;ex\u00e9cution s&rsquo;appuie sur <strong>Kalshi,<\/strong> une bourse r\u00e9gul\u00e9e, avec r\u00e8glements en dollars, ce qui devrait \u00eatre adapt\u00e9 en livres et en euros pour l&rsquo;Europe.<\/p>\n<h2>Futures ou pari en ligne : le casse-t\u00eate europ\u00e9en<\/h2>\n<p>Sur le continent, la ligne de partage varie pays par pays. MiCA encadre les crypto-actifs, mais <strong>les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction non crypto<\/strong> peuvent basculer dans d&rsquo;autres cat\u00e9gories.<\/p>\n<p>La France, l&rsquo;Italie ou l&rsquo;Espagne peuvent assimiler certains contrats \u00e0 des paris si l&rsquo;issue est non <strong>financi\u00e8re.<\/strong> L&rsquo;Allemagne et les Pays-Bas regardent d&rsquo;abord la nature du sous-jacent et la compensation.<\/p>\n<p>R\u00e9sultat : Robinhood devra sans doute adopter une approche graduelle, Royaume-Uni d&rsquo;abord, puis des d\u00e9ploiements <strong>cibl\u00e9s<\/strong> dans l&rsquo;UE l\u00e0 o\u00f9 la qualification en instrument financier est la plus probable.<\/p>\n<p>En effet, c\u00f4t\u00e9 <strong>exp\u00e9rience,<\/strong> attendez-vous \u00e0 des limites de mise, des garde-fous sur la volatilit\u00e9 des \u00e9v\u00e9nements et une granularit\u00e9 fine des march\u00e9s ouverts ou ferm\u00e9s selon les juridictions.<\/p>\n<h2>La pouss\u00e9e des plateformes on-chain<\/h2>\n<p>En parall\u00e8le, l&rsquo;\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me d\u00e9centralis\u00e9 a servi de laboratoire. <strong>Polymarket<\/strong> a montr\u00e9 que la demande existe pour des march\u00e9s tr\u00e8s liquides : \u00e9lection, macro et sport, avec une transparence on-chain mais aussi des contraintes de liquidit\u00e9 in\u00e9gale et d&rsquo;acc\u00e8s g\u00e9olocalis\u00e9.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"474\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Prediction markets and Community Notes are becoming the two flagship social epistemic technologies of the 2020s.<\/p>\n<p>Both truth-seeking and democratic, built around open public participation rather than pre-selected elites.<\/p>\n<p>I want to see many more things like this.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/VitalikButerin\/status\/1808092065483436481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 2, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>L&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat n&rsquo;est pas qu&rsquo;\u00e9lectoral. Des pr\u00e9dictions sur <strong>l&rsquo;inflation,<\/strong> la m\u00e9t\u00e9o ou l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 IA gagnent en popularit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Si Robinhood arrive en Europe, il importera une UX <strong>Web2<\/strong> avec garde-fous r\u00e9glementaires, pendant que <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/btc-sous-100k-polymarket\/\" target=\"_blank\">les versions on-chain continueront d&rsquo;innover<\/a> sur la vari\u00e9t\u00e9 des sous-jacents et le r\u00e8glement automatis\u00e9 par smart contract.<\/p>\n<h2>Ce que cela changerait pour les particuliers europ\u00e9ens<\/h2>\n<p>Concr\u00e8tement, une version europ\u00e9enne signifierait d\u00e9p\u00f4ts en GBP et EUR, r\u00e8glements en monnaie locale et fiscalit\u00e9 de produits financiers plut\u00f4t que de jeux d&rsquo;argent dans les pays qui classent ces contrats comme <strong>d\u00e9riv\u00e9s.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Les march\u00e9s les plus probables au lancement sont ceux \u00e0 donn\u00e9es publiques et <strong>v\u00e9rifiables<\/strong> : d\u00e9cisions de banques centrales, statistiques macro, r\u00e9sultats sportifs majeurs et cours de cl\u00f4ture.<\/p>\n<p>Les th\u00e8mes politiques resteront encadr\u00e9s selon les pays. Pour <strong>l&rsquo;investisseur,<\/strong> l&rsquo;int\u00e9r\u00eat est clair : une fa\u00e7on simple de se positionner sur un sc\u00e9nario binaire.<\/p>\n<p>Le revers est tout aussi clair : un risque de perte totale de la mise et des limites r\u00e9glementaires qui fermeront certains march\u00e9s selon la localisation. Ainsi, si Robinhood obtient le feu vert au <strong>Royaume-Uni,<\/strong> l&rsquo;Europe deviendra rapidement le prochain terrain d&rsquo;arbitrage entre offre r\u00e9gul\u00e9e et innovations on-chain.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u00c0 lire aussi :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/france-bloquer-entreprises-crypto\/\">La France pr\u00eate \u00e0 bloquer certaines entreprises crypto<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/stablecoins-surveillance-sans-freiner-adoption\/\">Les stablecoins sous surveillance : r\u00e9guler sans freiner l&rsquo;adoption<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/passporting-crypto-france-muscler-mica\/\">Passporting crypto sous tension : la France veut muscler MiCA<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<a class=\"infinscroll_next_page_link\" style=\"display:none\" href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/seal-safe-harbor-hackers-ethiques\/\" rel=\"prev\">next<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Robinhood veut exporter ses march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction de l&rsquo;autre c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l&rsquo;Atlantique. Apr\u00e8s un lancement tr\u00e8s suivi aux \u00c9tats-Unis, le courtier discute avec la FCA au Royaume-Uni pour adapter son offre \u00e0 l&rsquo;Europe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":200,"featured_media":11917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actu","category-bitcoin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>March\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction : Robinhood pr\u00e9pare son arriv\u00e9e en Europe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Apr\u00e8s son succ\u00e8s aux US, Robinhood veut lancer ses prediction markets en UK et Europe, malgr\u00e9 des questions de classification.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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Je souhaite y apporter mon approche analytique et rationnelle, tout en conservant ma curiosit\u00e9. En dehors de l\u2019\u00e9cran, je lis beaucoup (\u00e9conomie, essais, un peu de science-fiction) et je prends plaisir \u00e0 bricoler. Le DIY, pour moi, c\u2019est comme la crypto : comprendre, tester, construire soi-m\u00eame.","url":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/author\/emmanuel\/"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/200"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11915"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11915\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12024,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11915\/revisions\/12024"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}