{"id":12731,"date":"2025-10-08T15:00:02","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T15:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/?p=12731"},"modified":"2025-10-08T13:28:43","modified_gmt":"2025-10-08T13:28:43","slug":"bitcoin-150k-octobre-simulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/bitcoin-150k-octobre-simulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin : pourquoi un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 150 000$ devient cr\u00e9dible"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Les chiffres parlent, pas l&rsquo;euphorie<\/h2>\n<p>Octobre est, en moyenne, l&rsquo;un des mois les plus porteurs pour Bitcoin depuis 2013, autour de 20,75% de performance moyenne, avec un d\u00e9part cette ann\u00e9e pr\u00e8s de 116 500$ le 1er octobre. M\u00eame si l&rsquo;actif a d\u00e9j\u00e0 pris de l&rsquo;avance, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/bitcoin-corrige-fin-du-rallye\/\">la m\u00e9canique saisonni\u00e8re reste surveill\u00e9e<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>D&rsquo;autant que novembre est historiquement encore plus g\u00e9n\u00e9reux. De quoi rendre un <strong>150 000$<\/strong> d&rsquo;ici peu moins th\u00e9orique qu&rsquo;il n&rsquo;y para\u00eet.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12744\" src=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/0199c120-9b76-72f1-85ed-678761136ada.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1600\" height=\"953\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/0199c120-9b76-72f1-85ed-678761136ada.webp 1600w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/0199c120-9b76-72f1-85ed-678761136ada-300x179.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/0199c120-9b76-72f1-85ed-678761136ada-1024x610.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/0199c120-9b76-72f1-85ed-678761136ada-768x457.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/0199c120-9b76-72f1-85ed-678761136ada-1536x915.webp 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1600px) 100vw, 1600px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>L&rsquo;\u00e9conomiste Timothy Peterson a fait tourner des centaines de trajectoires bas\u00e9es sur <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ishares.com\/us\/insights\/bitcoin-volatility-trends\" target=\"_blank\">la volatilit\u00e9 quotidienne de BTC<\/a> depuis 2015. R\u00e9sultat affich\u00e9 publiquement : environ une chance sur deux de cl\u00f4turer octobre au-dessus de 140 000$, et 43% de chance de terminer sous 136 000$.<\/p>\n<p>Il ajoute que \u00ab\u00a0la moiti\u00e9 de la hausse d&rsquo;octobre\u00a0\u00bb a peut-\u00eatre <strong>d\u00e9j\u00e0<\/strong> eu lieu, une fa\u00e7on polie de rappeler qu&rsquo;on ne court pas \u00e9ternellement apr\u00e8s une moyenne historique.<\/p>\n<p>Pourquoi cela int\u00e9resse autant les <strong>pros<\/strong> alors que la macro peut tout renverser en une s\u00e9ance ? Parce que ces simulations sont plus concr\u00e8tes que le brouhaha quotidien sur X.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"474\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Half of Bitcoin&#39;s October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation.  <br \/>There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k<br \/>But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LPhFr0mry9\">pic.twitter.com\/LPhFr0mry9<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredvalue\/status\/1975606703144989042?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 7, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Elles rejouent les m\u00eames r\u00e8gles du jeu, celles d&rsquo;une volatilit\u00e9 <strong>r\u00e9p\u00e9titive<\/strong> et d&rsquo;un rythme de march\u00e9 qui se r\u00e9installe souvent \u00e0 l&rsquo;automne. Ce n&rsquo;est ni haussier par nature ni baissier par principe. C&rsquo;est une m\u00e9canique de flux.<\/p>\n<h2>Octobre met la table, novembre sert le plat<\/h2>\n<p>L&rsquo;autre donn\u00e9e, plus triviale, tient au palmar\u00e8s saisonnier. Octobre est traditionnellement le <strong>deuxi\u00e8me meilleur mois<\/strong> de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e pour BTC. Novembre arrive devant, avec une moyenne historique autour de 46% depuis 2013. Mais on ne parle pas d&rsquo;une r\u00e8gle grav\u00e9e dans la pierre.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin s&rsquo;est d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9cart\u00e9 des sch\u00e9mas avec une r\u00e9gularit\u00e9 aga\u00e7ante. Mais <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/bitcoin-franchit-24-trillions-et-depasse-amazon\/\">l&rsquo;alignement actuel<\/a> coche des cases simples \u00e0 comprendre.<\/p>\n<p>Un ATH tout frais \u00e0 126 200$, une ouverture de mois moyenne \u00e0 116 500$ qui laisse de la place aux extensions, une volatilit\u00e9 annualis\u00e9e qui peut porter une avance de 20% \u00e0 25% sur trente jours : dans ce d\u00e9cor, 140 000$ n&rsquo;est pas une cible sortie d&rsquo;un chapeau.<\/p>\n<p>C&rsquo;est la projection la plus banale si l&rsquo;on colle aux historiques. Et <strong>150 000$ devient un sc\u00e9nario de travail raisonnable<\/strong> si le relais saisonnier s&rsquo;enclenche \u00e0 nouveau en novembre.<\/p>\n<p>Les desks ne lisent pas l&rsquo;avenir. Ils g\u00e8rent des probabilit\u00e9s. Aujourd&rsquo;hui, elles sont moins longues qu&rsquo;il y a un mois.<\/p>\n<h2>Les traders scrutent les seuils<\/h2>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"474\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Altcoins?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Altcoins<\/a> broke out, retested the previous cycle highs &#8211; and bounced.<\/p>\n<p>This is looking very, very promising.<\/p>\n<p>You ready? <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LN3dXKmKv7\">pic.twitter.com\/LN3dXKmKv7<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoJelleNL\/status\/1972665446433264014?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Sur les \u00e9crans, les seuils sont limpides. D&rsquo;abord la zone des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents sommets, retest\u00e9e \u00e0 plusieurs reprises depuis le pic. Ensuite le palier 136 000$ \u00e9voqu\u00e9 par les simulations. Au-dessus, la route vers 140 000$ s&rsquo;\u00e9claircit.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 court terme, le march\u00e9 n&rsquo;est pas al\u00e9atoire. Il tourne au <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/accumulation-ethereum-rotation-vers-altcoins\/\">rythme de la liquidit\u00e9<\/a>, du sentiment et des positions. Octobre est un mois o\u00f9 ces trois dimensions se r\u00e9organisent souvent en faveur de la hausse.<\/p>\n<h2>150 000$ n&rsquo;est plus un fantasme, c&rsquo;est un sc\u00e9nario de travail<\/h2>\n<p>Posons le cadre. Si BTC valide 140 000$ en cl\u00f4ture mensuelle, il entre dans une zone que les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents cycles ont trait\u00e9e comme un tremplin.<\/p>\n<p>Si, en plus, novembre reste fid\u00e8le \u00e0 sa r\u00e9putation de mois le plus porteur, alors 150 000$ n&rsquo;est plus une hypoth\u00e8se aggressive. C&rsquo;est la partie haute d&rsquo;une fourchette plausible.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-12786\" src=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/img-2025-10-08-a-15.22.01.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"2304\" height=\"1154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/img-2025-10-08-a-15.22.01.jpg 2304w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/img-2025-10-08-a-15.22.01-300x150.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/img-2025-10-08-a-15.22.01-1024x513.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/img-2025-10-08-a-15.22.01-768x385.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/img-2025-10-08-a-15.22.01-1536x769.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/img-2025-10-08-a-15.22.01-2048x1026.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2304px) 100vw, 2304px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Inversement, une cl\u00f4ture sous 136 000$ rappellerait que les mod\u00e8les ne sont que des <strong>boussoles.<\/strong> Bitcoin a souvent bouscul\u00e9 les moyennes au moment o\u00f9 on les brandissait.<\/p>\n<p>Ce cycle, jusque-l\u00e0, a montr\u00e9 deux choses. D&rsquo;un c\u00f4t\u00e9, l&rsquo;app\u00e9tit structurel existe. De l&rsquo;autre, les mouvements se font plus par paliers que par lignes droites. Entre 140 000$ et 150 000$, c&rsquo;est moins une falaise qu&rsquo;un escalier.<\/p>\n<p>Il faudra gravir les marches une \u00e0 une. Les probabilit\u00e9s, elles, sont enfin du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des haussiers. Et c&rsquo;est d\u00e9j\u00e0 beaucoup.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u00c0 lire aussi :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/genius-act-fin-des-abus-bancaires\/\" rel=\"\">Genius Act : bient\u00f4t la fin des abus bancaires gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la crypto ?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/chute-francaise-essor-bitcoin\/\">Arthur Hayes pr\u00e9dit la chute fran\u00e7aise et l&rsquo;essor du Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/armstrong-bitcoin-1-million-2030\/\">Brian Armstrong pr\u00e9dit un Bitcoin \u00e0 1 million $ d&rsquo;ici 2030<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<a class=\"infinscroll_next_page_link\" style=\"display:none\" href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/mica-europe-regulation-crypto-esma\/\" rel=\"prev\">next<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le march\u00e9 a aval\u00e9 septembre sans trembler et a d\u00e9marr\u00e9 octobre avec l&rsquo;assurance des grands soirs. Bitcoin a inscrit un nouvel ATH au-dessus de 126 000$ en d\u00e9but de semaine, puis a souffl\u00e9 sous les 123 000$ au moment d&rsquo;\u00e9crire ces lignes. Voyons pourquoi cela rend tout \u00e0 fait cr\u00e9dible un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 150 000$ pour Bitcoin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":200,"featured_media":12737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actu","category-bitcoin"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin : pourquoi un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 150 000$ devient cr\u00e9dible<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les mod\u00e8les de march\u00e9 donnent 50% de chances \u00e0 Bitcoin de d\u00e9passer 150 000 $ d\u2019ici la fin du mois. 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Une probabilit\u00e9 historique.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/bitcoin-150k-octobre-simulation\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"fr-FR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/bitcoin-150k-octobre-simulation\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/bitcoin-150k-octobre-simulation\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/Copie-de-Coinspeaker35.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/Copie-de-Coinspeaker35.jpg","width":1200,"height":800},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/bitcoin-150k-octobre-simulation\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Bitcoin : pourquoi un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 150 000$ devient cr\u00e9dible"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/","name":"Coinspeaker France","description":"Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoins et actualit\u00e9s crypto avec analyses, cours en direct, graphiques de donn\u00e9es et guides","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"fr-FR"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/d793ce3fffd1844b1bf840021a85dd43","name":"Emmanuel Roux","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"fr-FR","@id":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/06\/cropped-pp-1-96x96.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/06\/cropped-pp-1-96x96.png","caption":"Emmanuel Roux"},"description":"Issu de la finance traditionnelle, j\u2019ai naturellement bascul\u00e9 vers l\u2019univers crypto, attir\u00e9 par son potentiel. Je souhaite y apporter mon approche analytique et rationnelle, tout en conservant ma curiosit\u00e9. En dehors de l\u2019\u00e9cran, je lis beaucoup (\u00e9conomie, essais, un peu de science-fiction) et je prends plaisir \u00e0 bricoler. Le DIY, pour moi, c\u2019est comme la crypto : comprendre, tester, construire soi-m\u00eame.","url":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/author\/emmanuel\/"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/200"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12731"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12731\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12787,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12731\/revisions\/12787"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}