{"id":16917,"date":"2025-11-13T14:30:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T14:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/?p=16917"},"modified":"2025-11-13T12:30:54","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T12:30:54","slug":"morgan-stanley-analyse-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/morgan-stanley-analyse-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley alerte : Bitcoin entre en \u201cfall season\u201d, prenez vos profits"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Une \u201cfall season\u201d qui change le ton du march\u00e9<\/h2>\n<p>Denny Galindo, strat\u00e8ge chez Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morganstanley.com\/insights\/podcasts\/thoughts-on-the-market\/cryptocurrencies-going-mainstream-mike-cyprys-denny-galindo?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\">explique<\/a> <\/strong>que <strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> suit g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement <strong>un cycle simple<\/strong>. Il parle de trois phases de mont\u00e9e, puis d\u2019une<strong> phase de recul<\/strong>. Selon lui, nous sommes maintenant dans cette derni\u00e8re \u00e9tape, celle o\u00f9 le march\u00e9 commence \u00e0 perdre de son souffle. Il invite donc les investisseurs \u00e0<strong> revoir leurs positions.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Et ce changement n\u2019arrive pas par hasard. Le 5 novembre, Bitcoin est <strong>pass\u00e9 sous sa moyenne mobile<\/strong> \u00e0 365 jours. Ce seuil sert souvent de rep\u00e8re pour identifier <strong>un virage de tendance<\/strong>. \u00c0 ce moment-l\u00e0, le prix est aussi tomb\u00e9 <strong>sous les 99 000 dollars<\/strong>, ce qui a renforc\u00e9 l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un d\u00e9but de cycle plus fragile. Les strat\u00e8ges y voient un signal clair : la dynamique n\u2019est plus la m\u00eame.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"474\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The significance of Bitcoin losing the 365-day MA: <br \/>It was the final confirmation to the start of the 2022 bear market.<\/p>\n<p>The price needs to cross back above it quickly. <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9ChB28Zl5g\">pic.twitter.com\/9ChB28Zl5g<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jjcmoreno\/status\/1985828613518680097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 4, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>De plus, Morgan Stanley observe que le march\u00e9 \u00e9volue depuis plusieurs semaines dans<strong> une zone \u00e9troite<\/strong>. Bitcoin oscille entre 106 000 et 116 000 dollars. Cette phase lat\u00e9rale montre <strong>un essoufflement<\/strong> du mouvement haussier.<\/p>\n<p>Pour la banque, ce manque d\u2019\u00e9lan confirme que la p\u00e9riode actuelle ressemble bien \u00e0 <strong>un automne du march\u00e9<\/strong>, un moment o\u00f9 la prudence redevient essentielle.<\/p>\n<h2>Un ralentissement des liquidit\u00e9s qui inqui\u00e8te<\/h2>\n<p>L\u2019autre point d\u2019alerte se situe du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des liquidit\u00e9s. Selon <strong>Wintermute<\/strong>, un acteur reconnu du march\u00e9, les flux entrants dans les stablecoins, les ETFs et les digital asset treasuries ont <strong>clairement ralenti.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ce plateau pose un probl\u00e8me, car <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong><\/a> a fr\u00e9quemment besoin d\u2019<strong>une forte arriv\u00e9e de capitaux<\/strong> pour maintenir son \u00e9lan. Morgan Stanley insiste sur ce point, puisque ce ralentissement appara\u00eet au mauvais moment.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"474\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Liquidity drives crypto cycles, and now, the money has stopped flowing in<\/p>\n<p>Stablecoins, ETFs, and DATs have grown from $180B to $560B since early 2024, but momentum has slowed<\/p>\n<p>Capital is rotating internally, not entering fresh \u2192 rallies die fast and breadth keeps narrowing <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/h9Rp2fJAcE\">pic.twitter.com\/h9Rp2fJAcE<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Wintermute (@wintermute_t) <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow sponsored\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/wintermute_t\/status\/1986339002287587524?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>En parall\u00e8le, les d\u00e9tenteurs de long terme<strong> commencent \u00e0 vendre<\/strong>. Les analyses parlent d\u2019<strong>environ 104 000 BTC distribu\u00e9s<\/strong> chaque mois, un rythme de vente qui n\u2019avait plus \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9 depuis juillet. Les investisseurs les plus patients commencent, eux aussi, \u00e0 encaisser une partie de leurs gains, ce qui montre qu\u2019ils ne veulent plus laisser courir le risque.<\/p>\n<p>Et forc\u00e9ment, ce mouvement cr\u00e9e <strong>un peu plus de pression<\/strong> sur le march\u00e9, qui perd peu \u00e0 peu son \u00e9lan. Pour <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.morganstanley.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"\">Morgan Stanley<\/a><\/strong>, la lecture du moment est assez \u00e9vidente : sans nouveaux capitaux qui arrivent, Bitcoin pourrait <strong>continuer \u00e0 tourner<\/strong> dans la m\u00eame zone de prix.<\/p>\n<p>Et si les choses se compliquaient, l\u2019actif pourrait m\u00eame <strong>glisser vers 106 000 dollars<\/strong>, voire se rapprocher dangereusement des 100 000 dollars. En clair, la banque conseille de <strong>prendre ses profits maintenant<\/strong>, tant que la situation reste encore relativement calme.<\/p>\n<h2>L\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat institutionnel reste fort, mais le timing change<\/h2>\n<p>Pourtant, tout n\u2019est pas pessimiste. Les grandes institutions<strong> continuent d\u2019adopter Bitcoin<\/strong>. Les ETF spot Bitcoin affichent d\u00e9sormais <strong>plus de 137 milliards<\/strong> de dollars d\u2019actifs. Les ETF Ether, eux, atteignent 22,4 milliards de dollars.<\/p>\n<p>Ces chiffres montrent que l\u2019app\u00e9tit des professionnels reste solide, m\u00eame si <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/sortie-massive-etf-bitcoin-ethereum-signal-dalerte-pour-marche-crypto\/\">une sortie massive<\/a><\/strong> a eu lieu et la dynamique s\u2019essouffle \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Michael Cyprys<\/strong>, un autre analyste de Morgan Stanley, rappelle d\u2019ailleurs que Bitcoin devient <strong>un actif macro<\/strong>. Beaucoup l\u2019utilisent comme <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/bitcoin-contre-or-la-bataille-pour-le-titre-de-valeur-refuge-est-lancee\/\">une valeur refuge<\/a> comme l&rsquo;or<\/strong>\u00a0ou un rempart contre l\u2019inflation. Ce changement de perception cr\u00e9e une base d\u2019investisseurs plus stable que par le pass\u00e9. Cela explique pourquoi le <strong>march\u00e9 ne s\u2019effondre pas<\/strong> malgr\u00e9 le ralentissement actuel.<\/p>\n<p>Cependant, l\u2019<strong>int\u00e9r\u00eat institutionnel<\/strong> ne suffit pas \u00e0 faire oublier le contexte. Morgan Stanley pense que la prudence est logique maintenant. L\u2019automne est<strong> une phase de r\u00e9colte<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Les investisseurs doivent prot\u00e9ger leurs gains avant que le march\u00e9 n\u2019entre peut-\u00eatre dans une p\u00e9riode plus froide. Le message reste donc ferme : l\u2019heure n\u2019est pas au pari, mais \u00e0 la gestion des profits.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u00c0 lire aussi :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/etf-xrp-nasdaq-canary-sec\/\">La bataille des ETF XRP s\u2019intensifie : Canary arrive sur le Nasdaq<br \/>\n<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/maxi-doge-recolte-4m-prevente-letf-dogecoin\/\">Maxi Doge r\u00e9colte 4M$ en pr\u00e9vente pendant que l\u2019ETF Dogecoin plafonne \u00e0 17M$<br \/>\n<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/irs-staking-etf-crypto-usa\/\">L\u2019IRS valide enfin le staking pour les ETF crypto aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<a class=\"infinscroll_next_page_link\" style=\"display:none\" href=\"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/stimulus-trump-crypto-marche\/\" rel=\"prev\">next<\/a>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alors que le Bitcoin traverse une p\u00e9riode de turbulences, la c\u00e9l\u00e8bre banque Morgan Stanley lance un conseil fort \u00e0 ses clients : il est temps de r\u00e9colter vos gains. Le g\u00e9ant financier estime que le march\u00e9 entre dans une phase \u00ab\u00a0automnale\u00a0\u00bb traditionnellement plus difficile.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":200,"featured_media":16932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actu","category-actualites-du-marche"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Morgan Stanley alerte : Bitcoin entre en \u201cfall season\u201d, prenez vos profits<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Morgan Stanley conseille de prendre profit sur Bitcoin, pr\u00e9voyant une &quot;fall season&quot; avec un ralentissement du march\u00e9.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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Je souhaite y apporter mon approche analytique et rationnelle, tout en conservant ma curiosit\u00e9. En dehors de l\u2019\u00e9cran, je lis beaucoup (\u00e9conomie, essais, un peu de science-fiction) et je prends plaisir \u00e0 bricoler. Le DIY, pour moi, c\u2019est comme la crypto : comprendre, tester, construire soi-m\u00eame.","url":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/author\/emmanuel\/"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/200"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16917"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16917\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16929,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16917\/revisions\/16929"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}