{"id":5316,"date":"2025-09-11T22:37:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T13:37:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/kr\/?p=5316"},"modified":"2025-09-11T22:37:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T13:37:39","slug":"altseason-incoming-a-50-bps-interest-rate-cut-is-now-on-table","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/kr\/altseason-incoming-a-50-bps-interest-rate-cut-is-now-on-table\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc54c\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \ub7a0\ub9ac \uc784\ubc15? \uc5f0\uc900 0.5%p \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ubd80\uac01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\uc624\ub294 9\uc6d4 17\uc77c \uc608\uc815\ub41c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc758 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC) \ud68c\uc758\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0, \uc608\uce21\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 0.5%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc0c8\ub86d\uac8c \ubd80\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ub294 9\uc6d4 10\uc77c \ubcf5\ud569\uc801\uc778 \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub41c \ub4a4 \ud655\uc0b0\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \ub354 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uac15\uc138\ub860\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc790\uadf9\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n
\ud2b9\ud788 CME \uadf8\ub8f9\uc758 \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch)<\/a> \ud234\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 3.75~4% \ubc94\uc704\ub85c \uc870\uc815\ub420 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc57d 10%\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc758 \ud65c\ub3d9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc9d1\uacc4\ud574 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc608\uce21 \ub3c4\uad6c \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc774\ubc88 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \ubd88\uacfc \uc9c0\ub09c\uc8fc \uae08\uc694\uc77c\uc778 9\uc6d4 5\uc77c\uae4c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud574\ub3c4 \uc804\ud600 \uace0\ub824\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub358 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740\uc54c\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \ub7a0\ub9ac \uc608\uace0? \uc5f0\uc900 0.5%p \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ubd80\uac01 \ud398\ub4dc\uc6cc\uce58(FedWatch): 2025\ub144 9\uc6d4 17\uc77c FOMC \ud68c\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd \ud655\ub960 | \ucd9c\ucc98: CME \uadf8\ub8f9<\/p><\/div>\n \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \ub354 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \ubc18\uc601\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc608\uce21 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc778 \uce7c\uc2dc(Kalshi)\uc640 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uae30\ubc18 \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc \ud3f4\ub9ac\ub9c8\ucf13(Polymarket)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc6b0\uc120 \uce7c\uc2dc\uc758 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740<\/a> 0.25%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ucd08\uacfc \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 16%\ub85c \ucc45\uc815\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774 \ubca0\ud305\uc5d0 4,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 571\uc5b5 \uc6d0) \uc774\uc0c1\uc758 \uac70\ub798\ub7c9\uc774 \ubab0\ub838\ub2e4. \ube44\uc2b7\ud558\uac8c, \ud3f4\ub9ac\ub9c8\ucf13\uc758 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740<\/a> 0.5%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 15.3%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub294\ub370, \ub204\uc801 \ubca0\ud305 \uaddc\ubaa8\uac00 9,100\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 1,268\uc5b5 \uc6d0)\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud574 \uce7c\uc2dc\uc758 \ub450 \ubc30 \uc774\uc0c1\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc608\uce21 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubca0\ud305: 9\uc6d4 FOMC \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 | \ucd9c\ucc98: \uce7c\uc2dc(\uc704), \ud3f4\ub9ac\ub9c8\ucf13(\uc544\ub798)<\/p><\/div>\n \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\ub098 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc5ec\uc9c4\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc790\ubcf8\uacfc \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uad6d\ucc44\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8-\ubcf4\uc0c1 \ube44\uc728\uc744 \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4(Jerome Powell)<\/a> \uc758\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\ub044\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc740 2024\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc904\uace7 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \uac15\ud55c \uc18c\uadf9\uc801 \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc654\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(PPI)\uac00 2.6%\ub85c \uc774\uc804 \uc218\uce58 \ubc0f \uc608\uc0c1\uce58\uc778 3.3%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uace0, \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc640 \uac01\uc885 \uc870\uc815 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ud568\uaed8 \ubc18\uc601\ub418\uba74\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uae09\ubcc0\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778(BTC)<\/a>, \uc774\ub354\ub9ac\uc6c0(ETH)<\/a> \ubc0f \ub2e4\ub978 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc751\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud604\uc7ac \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc740 113,750\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 1\uc5b5 5,852\ub9cc \uc6d0) \uc774\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 9\uc6d4 8\uc77c \uc885\uac00\uc778 111,500\ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 1\uc5b5 5,527\ub9cc \uc6d0) \ub300\ube44 2% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\ubdf0(TradingView)\uc758 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561 \uc9c0\uc218(TOTAL)\ub294 \uc804\uccb4 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561\uc744 3\uc870 8,800\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 5,404\uc870 \uc6d0)\ub85c \uc9d1\uacc4\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc804\ub0a0 \uc885\uac00 \uae30\uc900 3\uc870 8,200\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 5,321\uc870 \uc6d0) \ub300\ube44 1.5% \uc99d\uac00\ud55c \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \u3139\uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561 \uc9c0\uc218(TOTAL) \ubc0f \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778(BTC) \uc77c\ubd09 \ucc28\ud2b8 | \ucd9c\ucc98: \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529\ubdf0(TradingView)<\/p><\/div>\n \ud765\ubbf8\ub86d\uac8c\ub3c4, \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc740 \uc2dc\uac00\ucd1d\uc561 \uc9c0\uc218\uc640 \uac15\ud55c \uc0c1\uad00\uad00\uacc4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70 \uc778\ub371\uc2a4\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \ucd94\uc9c4\ub825\uc774 \ub418\uc5b4\uc654\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ucd5c\uadfc \uac00\uaca9 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc810\uc720\uc728\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uace0 \uc18c\uc704 \uc54c\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\ub4e4\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc810\uc720\uc728\uacfc \uad00\uc2ec\uc744 \ud655\uc7a5\ud558\uba74\uc11c, \uc9c0\uc218\uac00 \uc120\ub3c4 \uc790\uc0b0\uacfc \uc57d\uac04 \ubd84\ub9ac\ub418\ub294 \uc591\uc0c1\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uac15\uc138\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub514\ucee4\ud50c\ub9c1\uc774 \uc2ec\ud654\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc54c\ud2b8\uc2dc\uc98c\uc758 \uacf5\uac04\uc744 \ub9c8\ub828\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 9\uc6d4 17\uc77c \uc608\uc815\ub41c \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ud2b8\ub9ac\uac70\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\ub3c4 \ub098\uc628\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640 \ub354\ubd88\uc5b4 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c\ub294 \ud14c\ub354(Tether)\uac00 2024\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c 20\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 2\uc870 7,862\uc5b5 \uc6d0) \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 USDT\ub97c \ubc1c\ud589<\/a>\ud55c \uc810, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub0b4 \ud1a0\ud070\ud654 \uc99d\uad8c \uac70\ub798\ub97c \ucd09\uc9c4\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5\uc758 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784<\/a>\uc774 \uaf3d\ud788\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ub354\ubcf4\uae30: 2025\ub144 \uc720\ub9dd \uc54c\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc21c\uc704\ub294?<\/a><\/p>\n
\n\uc778\ud558\ub97c \ud1b5\ud55c 4~4.25% \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc720\ub825\ud558\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \ub3d9\uacb0 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uc77c\ubd80 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uc5c8\uc73c\ub098 \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubc30\uc81c\ub41c \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\ud06c\ub9bd\ud1a0 \uc9c0\uc218 \ubc0f \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h2>\n