{"id":6177,"date":"2025-09-24T23:40:31","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T14:40:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/kr\/?p=6177"},"modified":"2025-09-24T23:40:31","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T14:40:31","slug":"hayes-sees-3-4m-btc-fed-trillion-printing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.coinspeaker.com\/kr\/hayes-sees-3-4m-btc-fed-trillion-printing\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc544\uc11c \ud5e4\uc774\uc988 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uc804\ub9dd – \uc5f0\uc900 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300 \uc2dc BTC \uac00\uaca9 300\ub9cc~400\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \ub3c4\ub2ec?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\ube44\ud2b8\uba55\uc2a4(BitMEX) \uacf5\ub3d9 \ucc3d\uc5c5\uc790 \uc544\uc11c \ud5e4\uc774\uc988(Arthur Hayes)\uac00 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80 2\uae30\uac00 \ubbf8\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\uafc0 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778(BTC)\uc774 \ud070 \uc218\ud61c\ub97c \ubcfc \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub300\ub2f4\ud55c \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \ub0b4\ub1a8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \uadf8\uac00 \ub0b4\ub193\uc740 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd<\/a>\uc758 \uc5f0\uc7a5\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud5e4\uc774\uc988\ub294 9\uc6d4 23\uc77c \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc5d0\uc138\uc774 \u2018Four, Seven(\ud3ec \uc138\ube10)\u2019<\/a>\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0c8 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c1\uc811 \ud1b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc2dc\ub3c4\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc758 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ub3d9\ub9f9\uc744 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc9c0\ub3c4\ubd80\uc5d0 \uc784\uba85\ud574, 7\uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\uc131\ub41c \uc5f0\uc900 \uc774\uc0ac\ud68c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc758\uacb0\uad8c \uacfc\ubc18\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc7ac\uc0b0\uc5c5\ud654\uc640 \uad6d\uac00 \ubd80\ucc44 \uad00\ub9ac\ub77c\ub294 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \ucd94\uc9c4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc804\ud1b5\uc801\uc778 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131\uc744 \ud754\ub4dc\ub294 \uc870\uce58\ub85c, \uacb0\uad6d \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uacf5\uae09\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud574 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc218\ubc31\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc218\uc900\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud5e4\uc774\uc988\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud5e4\uc774\uc988\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc801 \uc778\uc0ac\uc640 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0ac\uc784\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 2026\ub144 \ucd08\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacfc\ubc18 \uc9c0\ubc30 \uad6c\uc870\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900 \uc774\uc0ac\ud68c\ub97c \uc7a5\uc545\ud558\uba74 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\ub294 \uc9c0\uc5ed \uc5f0\uc900 \uc740\ud589 \ucd1d\uc7ac \uc120\uc784\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825\uc744 \ud589\uc0ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC)\uc5d0\uc11c \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc758\uacb0 \ube14\ub85d\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud574 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \ubc31\uc545\uad00\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \uacf5\uae09\uc744 \uc9c1\uc811 \ud1b5\uc81c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc5d0\uc138\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c \uad81\uadf9\uc801 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub294 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120 \ud1b5\uc81c(Yield Curve Control, \uad6d\ucc44 \ub9e4\uc785\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45) \ub3c4\uc785\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \ud504\ub85c\uc81d\ud2b8 \uc790\uae08\uc744 \uc870\ub2ec\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc77c\uc815 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \ubb36\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uc73c\ub85c, \uc81c2\ucc28 \uc138\uacc4\ub300\uc804 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud65c\uc6a9\ub41c \ubc14 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\uc758 \uc808\ubc18 \uac00\uae4c\uc774\ub97c \ucc28\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \uc911\uc18c\uae30\uc5c5 \ub300\ucd9c\uc744 \uc7a5\ub824\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec \ucd95\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ub410\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud5e4\uc774\uc988\ub294 \uc774\ub97c 2008\ub144 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc591\uc801\uc644\ud654(QE)\uc640 \ub300\ube44\uc2dc\ud0a4\uba70, \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ub300\uae30\uc5c5 \uc704\uc8fc\ub85c \ud61c\ud0dd\uc774 \ub3cc\uc544\uac14\ub2e4\uba74 \uc774\ubc88 \uc81c\uc548\uc740 \u2018\uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c\u2019\uc5d0 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucd98 \u2018\uac00\ub09c\ud55c \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uc591\uc801\uc644\ud654(QE 4 Poor People)\u2019\ub77c\uace0 \uc774\ub984 \ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc2e0\uc6a9 \ud655\ub300(2028\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 15\uc870 \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 2\uacbd 1,007\uc870 5,000\uc5b5 \uc6d0) \uc774\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5)\ub97c \uc694\uad6c\ud558\uba70, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\uc758 \uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ud76c\uc11d\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \ud5e4\uc774\uc988\ub294 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ud55c\uc815\ub41c \uacf5\uae09\uc744 \uac00\uc9c4 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac19\uc740 \uc2e4\ubb3c \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \ubab0\ub9b4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubd24\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \ubd80\ucc44 \uae09\uc99d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub808\uc774 \ub2ec\ub9ac\uc624(Ray Dalio) \uac19\uc740 \uc5b5\ub9cc\uc7a5\uc790 \ud22c\uc790\uc790<\/a>\uc758 \uacbd\uace0\uc640\ub3c4 \ub9e5\uc744 \uac19\uc774\ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9 \uae30\uac04 \uc2e0\uc6a9 \uc131\uc7a5 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c, \uadf8\ub294 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 2028\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 340\ub9cc \ub2ec\ub7ec(\uc57d 47\uc5b5 6,170\ub9cc \uc6d0)\uae4c\uc9c0 \uce58\uc19f\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ucd94\uc815\ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc5b4\ub514\uae4c\uc9c0\ub098 \ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uc218\uce58\uc784\uc744 \uc778\uc815\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4, \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc790\uc2e0\uac10\uc744 \uac70\ub4ed \uac15\uc870\ud588\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ud5e4\uc774\uc988\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc5f0\uc900 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131 \uce68\ud574\ub77c\ub294 \ub17c\ub780\uc744 \ub0b3\ub294 \uae09\uc9c4\uc801 \uc2dc\uac01\uc774\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc5f0\uc900 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131\uc744 \ud6fc\uc190\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ub294 \uc815\uce58\uc801\u00b7\ubc95\uc801 \uc800\ud56d\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uba70, \ud604\uc7ac\ub3c4 \uc560\ub110\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4 \uc0ac\uc774\uc5d0\uc11c \ub17c\uc7c1\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n \ub354\ubcf4\uae30: 2025\ub144~2030\ub144 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 \uac00\uaca9 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740?<\/a><\/p>\n\u2018\uc7a5\uc545\ub41c \uc5f0\uc900\u2019\uacfc \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uace1\uc120 \ud1b5\uc81c<\/h2>\n