Fate of Metaverses: Will They Survive beyond 2024?

The Gucci fashion show in Roblox, the Dyson virtual store, distance education, art exhibitions in Decentraland, and real estate purchasing; it seems that the wave of hype around the Metaverses has already passed, and everything that could happen in them has happened. What will happen to the concept of Metaworlds in the near future? Will they leave the market in 2024?

Why Is It the End of the Metaverse Era?

The wave of popularity for metaverses largely passed in 2021. Giants such as Facebook, Microsoft, and Epic Games spoke about creating their own meta-products. Since then, many significant events have occurred in the metaverse world.

COVID-19 has greatly contributed to developing such platforms for remote interaction, which is why Decentraland has held wedding ceremonies, and artists such as Travis Scott, Ariana Grande, Marshmello, and Twenty One Pilots have held their concerts at different metaverse venues.

The Block report showed that in 2022, the metaverse market collapsed to $2 million, or 96%, and virtual land prices fell by up to 90%. World events and the arrival of the crypto winter had an extremely negative impact on the state of the metaverses.

Well-known crypto enthusiasts did not stand aside and also expressed the opinion that the metaverses will not be able to become a full-fledged digital future.

Elon Musk said that the metaverses do not have successful use cases, noting that he can’t imagine how someone will attach a screen to their face and walk around like that all day. It’s impossible.”

Metaverses do not seem like a new concept to him, and the trend for them can go the same way as the era of 1990s 3D arcades.

Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, shared a similar point of view on the fate of the metaverses, saying that “some metaverse [or something similar to it] will appear in the future, but I don’t think that existing corporate attempts to intentionally create such a space will lead to something.” According to Buterin, it is now impossible to define the concept of the “metaverse accurately” and the demand of consumers for this digital product.

The metaverse industry itself faces challenges every year that either repels users or significantly slow down its adoption.

Firstly, metaverses are not controlled by governments in any way, and staying in these places sometimes turns into a real nightmare. In 2021 and 2022, there were several cases of harassment toward avatars in Horizon Worlds. Female avatar owners have complained about sexual abuse.

While Meta has taken steps to protect the personal boundaries of avatars by introducing a distance rule of at least 1.2 meters, this does not guarantee safety in other metaverses in the future. Some users may think this is a prank, but for others, it can be a scary traumatic experience and a reason to stop using the Metaverse permanently.

Another problem is the theft of metaverse user data. A recent survey by TELUS International found that consumers are concerned about the security of their personal data in the metaverse, with a majority of respondents (60%) citing privacy and data security concerns being the reason for them quitting or not joining.

“Unfortunately, with the advent and adoption of new technologies and platforms, there are also opportunities for attackers to exploit new and often more sophisticated forms of identity theft,” said TELUS International CIO Michael Ringman.

Finally, I would like to note that Pew Research Center conducted a study titled “The Metaverse 2040” and interviewed experts from Oxford, Cambridge, MIT, Stanford, and Carnegie Mellon universities. According to the researchers, there are several reasons why universal acceptance of the metaverses is impossible

• Technology will not be considered useful and necessary in everyday life.
• Users are concerned about the privacy and security of the metaverses, and they do not consider them reliable enough.
• Full immersion in the metaverse will not replace reality.
• Incidents of hostility and violence may increase due to uncontrolled user behavior.

These are the reasons why the Metaverse cannot go mainstream anytime soon. But does that mean their concept will be dead by 2024?

Too Early to Write Off

It is possible that some consider the consequences of the 2022 bear market too severe for the metaverse industry and are convinced that their activity will decline in the coming years. However, I think there are many reasons why the metaverse is too soon to be considered a receding phenomenon. Several statistics indicate that the industry is actively growing.

• Researchers predict that by 2029, the metaverse market could reach $1,528 billion.
• In 2022, Animoca Brands created a $2 billion fund to develop metaverse projects.
• The number of mobile AR users may reach 1.7 billion by 2024 (see the chart below).
• The NFT gallery market is worth $2.4 billion and will grow every year.
• In 2022, 5,364 applications for registration of digital products in the metaverse were received. Among them were Nike, Adidas, Reebok, BMW, and Mercedes.
• 36% of adult users are interested in using the Metaverse, and 12% of those surveyed are very interested.

Also, let’s not forget about the benefits of the metaverses. Despite the security flaws, the metaverse can be a lifesaver for some people.

The coronavirus pandemic was one instance where metaverses helped isolated people. First, if people had a need for remote communication and training, then the opportunity was already there thanks to metaverses.

High school teacher and EdTechTeacher instructor Douglas Kiang developed the Underwater Dome Project for his computer science students to build a community and encourage teamwork in his classroom. Kiang found that this led to a “really deep collaboration” between his students.

Avantis Education recently introduced Eduverse as a “safe and secure” Internet-based K-12 metaverse for classrooms. In Eduverse, students interact as avatars in a virtual environment and can conduct research on their own or with classmates in a teacher-controlled space.

Metaverses also have applications for those with accessibility needs. Not all cities are well adapted for the life and employment of people with disabilities, but thanks to the metaverses, they can take part in both creative events and work conferences without feeling any discomfort.

Moving the creative world, amazing things can happen anywhere in the world, but metaverses bring different creative initiatives together. In March 2023, the second annual Decentraland Fashion Week will take place.

“The metaverse is a unique space that allows us to play with different elements to surprise and engage the consumer,” said Tommy Hilfiger Global President and Chief Brand Officer Avery Baker.

According to these forecasts, it is too early for the metaverses to retire.

Final Thoughts

The Metaverse is a growing industry that is not without its drawbacks. Projects are now facing security threats, unregulated user behavior, and bear market hardships.

However, such projects are definitely coming. Metaverses are an affordable tool for communication, creative development, remote work, and education. If developers continue to develop hardware, projects can look forward to a long future.

Disclaimer: The opinions and views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and are not necessarily shared by Coinspeaker. We recommend you conduct the necessary research on your own before any investment and trading move.

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