Market Enters Late Bull Cycle Stage, Bitcoin to $141K?

On Jul 31, 2025 at 1:24 pm UTC by · 2 mins read

Bitcoin is trading around 3.6% below its all-time high of $123,000 as analysts signal the beginning of a late-stage bull cycle.

According to recent CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin BTC $113 695 24h volatility: 2.2% Market cap: $2.26 T Vol. 24h: $65.64 B is entering the late stage of its current bull market cycle.

Popular crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. recently compared the demand and supply between new and old investors to determine that the current rally has more room to grow.

Historical data suggests that previous cycle tops in March 2024 and December 2024 occurred when new investor dominance reached above 65% levels. As of July 2025, that number stands at just 30%.

Comparison of demand and supply between new and old Bitcoin investors | Source: CryptoQuant

There has been a steady rise in fresh capital entering the market. However, old holders have not yet begun selling aggressively. This suggests that supply from long-term wallets is being absorbed gradually, keeping the market in balance.

SoSoValue data further supports this outlook. In the past two months, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows on only seven days, showing strong and consistent interest from both institutional and retail investors.

Bitcoin Consolidates While Institutions Load Up

Technical analyst Ali Martinez recently shared the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis model on X. He suggested as long as BTC holds the $105,450 support, it could be targeting $125,230 and potentially $141,770.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic pressure from the Federal Reserve continues to affect the momentum. Fed Chair Jerome Powell refrained from giving clarity on potential rate cuts after the recent FOMC meeting, leading to a cautious stance among traders.

Despite Bitcoin’s slow movement amid investor capital rotation to new crypto projects, whales continue to accumulate. On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported that whales have acquired 218,570 BTC, about 0.9% of the circulating supply, since late March.

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards highlighted the magnitude of recent institutional buys, noting that treasury purchases on July 29–30 alone totaled nearly 30,000 BTC.

Institutional net buying accounted for 97% of all transactions, a level last seen in August 2020, right before Bitcoin surged more than 5x in value. If history repeats, Bitcoin could set a theoretical price target of over $500,000.

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