US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Not Priced In, Says Bitwise Exec as Odds Soar Above 50%

The D-day for Donald Trump‘s presidential inauguration is here, and the market is full of expectations for potential pro-crypto policies, including the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR).

Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, claimed that the SBR was not fully priced, as Polymarket’s odds slipped below 40.

At the time of his post, the market wasn’t pricing even a 50/50 chance of a crypto executive by President Trump on day 1. But the market quickly repriced a few hours later. At the time of going to press, the Polymarket odds of SBR jumped over 50%.

The sharp reaction also saw the BTC BTC $82 429 24h volatility: 6.5% Market cap: $1.65 T Vol. 24h: $88.65 B price surge from $102K to a new high of $109.5K just hours before the inauguration. While this suggested a potential bullish outcome for the market during the event, it remained to be seen whether the SBR would be part of the first-day executive orders.

Options Traders Eyes $96K-$112K

On the Options market front, traders expected gappy moves in the next 48 hours with max pain (the level where options are relatively worthless) at $102K and $103K for the January 20 and 21 expiries.  Both expiries had the highest Open Interest (OI) for put options (bearish bets) at $96K and $97K, respectively.

However, call options (bullish bets) dominated with $85M on notional value for the 21st January expiry. Simply put, traders expected price swings between $96K/$97K and $112K.

Additionally, with a put/call ratio below 1 (at 0.58), there was a premium for calls than puts, signaling strong bullish sentiment in the Options market.

The 25RR (25-Delta Risk Reversal) indicator echoed the same sentiment with a positive reading at 12.9 volatility for the past 24 hours. This suggested a massive price swing on Tuesday, as the market digests likely policy announcements and their potential impact.

The daily price chart implied a similar picture. As of this writing, BTC’s upswing was on the verge of clearing the overhead bearish order block and supply zone, red, at $105K-108K. This could bring BTC above its trendline support in the November rally and into price discovery.

In such a move, $112K, $116K, and $120K could be within reach if the bullish momentum extended post-inauguration. On the flipside, the mid-range and moving average at $96K, alongside the breakout level above $100K, could be a key support for potential drops.

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