Despite Buterin’s endorsement for Polymarket, he drew the line at assassination predictions, opposing any form of betting that could incentivize illegal actions.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has come forward to defend the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket amidst growing concerns over its betting on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East involving Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah.
On Monday, Buterin responded to criticism from an X (formerly Twitter) user who took issue with Polymarket hosting multiple betting events related to the conflict. The user expressed discomfort, saying it “feels wrong that Polymarket has an entire Hezbollah betting section that makes a war look like a football game to bet on”.
I support these existing. The point of polymarket is that from the perspective of traders it's a betting site, but from the perspective of viewers it's a news site. There's all kinds of people (incl elites) on twitter and the internet making harmful and inaccurate predictions…
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) October 1, 2024
Buterin argued that platforms like Polymarket serve as credible sources of information, especially when misinformation is rampant on social media. He emphasized that having a place where people with “actual skin in the game” can indicate the probability of events helps in maintaining sanity amid chaos.
Vitalik Buterin Defends Polymarket’s Role in Information Accuracy
“There’s all kinds of people (incl elites) on Twitter and the internet making harmful and inaccurate predictions about conflicts, and being able to go and see if people with actual skin in the game think that something has a 2% chance or a 50% chance is a valuable feature that can help keep people sane,” Buterin stated.
He further clarified that the intention is not to profit from unfortunate events but to create an environment where accurate information flows freely, without the interference of government agencies or corporate censorship. “It’s not about ‘make money from bad stuff happening’, it’s about creating an environment where speech has consequences,” he added.
However, Buterin drew the line at assassination predictions, opposing any form of betting that could incentivize illegal actions. His stance highlights the ethical boundaries he believes should govern decentralized platforms.
Polymarket’s Growing Popularity and Funding Milestones
Polymarket has seen a surge in popularity, particularly during the US election season, by allowing users to place bets on various event outcomes. The platform operates on the premise that speech has consequences by attaching real-world stakes to predictions.
In May, Buterin participated in a $70 million funding round for Polymarket, which also attracted investments from billionaire Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. His financial involvement underscores his support for the platform’s mission and operations.
Reports have suggested that Polymarket is preparing for fresh funding rounds and plans to launch its own token. The token is expected to play a crucial role in the platform’s future operations, potentially increasing user engagement and market liquidity.
The Ethical Debate Over Betting on Conflict
The controversy surrounding Polymarket’s betting on the Middle East conflict raises important ethical questions about the role of decentralized platforms in sensitive global issues. Critics argue that such betting markets can trivialize serious events, while supporters like Buterin see them as tools for promoting accurate information.
Polymarket, built on Ethereum’s Layer-2 chain Polygon, enables users to buy and sell outcome shares using cryptocurrencies. These shares can be redeemed for $1 if the outcome is correct but become worthless if incorrect, adding a financial incentive for accurate predictions.
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