With Ondo Finance sustaining at $1.18, the upcoming token unlock could reshape the price trend. Will the upcoming surge in circulating supply crash the ONDO price under $1?
As the broader crypto market maintains a positive sentiment, things are looking gloomy for ONDO Finance. The ongoing pullback faces intense bearish supply, making the short-term price trend quite bearish.
Will a coming supply wave break below the $1 psychological mark? Or is the potential bounce back to a new all-time high possible?
Ondo Price Analysis Fails To Find Incoming Supply
In the daily chart, the ONDO price action reveals an ongoing pullback phase. Consolidating near the $1.24 mark with an intraday gain of 2.59%, ONDO $0.91 24h volatility: 5.5% Market cap: $2.89 B Vol. 24h: $191.61 M fluctuates near its 100-day EMA line.
The ongoing pullback, starting after the recent all-time high of $2.14, now accounts for a price drop of more than 40%. Nevertheless, the short-term support at $1.18 turns the ONDO price trend on a lateral route.
However, the growing bearishness has resulted in a negative crossroad between the 20- and 50-day EMA lines. Furthermore, the RSI line is moving under the halfway level. Nevertheless, the bullish divergence in the RSI line consolidates at a bullish reversal.
Using the trend-based Fibonacci level over the November and December rally and the ongoing pullback projects the immediate price target at the 23.60% Fibonacci level.
This key resistance is priced at $1.52 and highlights an upside short-term potential of 22%. On the flip side, the breakdown will likely test the bullish dominance at the $1 psychological mark.
The Gigantic Token Unlock Warns ONDO Price Crash
Despite the bullish hope presented in the ONDO price analysis, the upcoming Mammoth Token Unlock is likely to fuel a supply tsunami.
As one of the top real-world asset tokens, ONDO is struggling to perform as the RWA segment grows. Amid such conditions, the RWA crypto is set to face a massive unlock event of 1.94 billion ONDO tokens, worth $2.4 billion.
The entry of such massive tokens into the circulating supply will likely flood the market with increased selling pressure. The token unlock accounts for more than 130% of the current ONDO market cap of $1.8 billion, while the broader market anticipates a massive sell-off due to the gigantic token unlock.
The Trump swearing-in ceremony on Jan. 19 remains one of the few bullish catalysts to hold off the selling spree.
ONDO Whale Takes A Smart Exit
Amid the growing threat of a price crash, a big whale has dumped its entire ONDO holding. With a sale of 10.978 million ONDO tokens, the whale closed its position for a loss of $3.54 million. Suffering a loss of 20.7% in just 38 days, the whale went home with 13.58 million USDC tokens.
However, while many judged the recent sale as a paper handing, the upcoming token unlock could prove this sale as a smart exit before the potential crash.
Key Support Levels for ONDO
As the token unlock warns of a bearish continuation, the price action analysis reveals a strong support at the $1 psychological mark. However, the intense selling pressure due to the massive token unlock will likely break multiple support levels.
Under such conditions, the global in-and-out-of-the-money indicator from InterTheBlog highlights a crucial support zone. The current in-the-money zone extends between $1.15 and $1.28, holding 749.66 million ONDO tokens, followed by the supply zone between $1 and $1.15, holding 315.96 million ONDO tokens.
The $1 psychological mark is likely to act as a crossroads for a bullish turnaround. The next crucial zone lies between $0.90 and $1, holding 47.66 million ONDO tokens.
Hence, the $1.15, $1, and $0.90 levels are key support zones that could act as a bounce pad for ONDO to make a bullish turnaround.
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