On the other hand, the report warns that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, Bitcoin could face a significant downturn.
Bitcoin BTC $104 959 24h volatility: 0.1% Market cap: $2.09 T Vol. 24h: $15.62 B could hit a new high of $90,000 by the end of the year if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, according to a report from research firm Bernstein.
Analysts from the firm suggest that Trump’s victory could boost the cryptocurrency market significantly, driven by his pro-Bitcoin stance.
Trump’s Pro-Bitcoin Stance
Trump has been vocal about his support for Bitcoin, frequently mentioning it in his policy speeches. He has advocated for the US to become a leader in the crypto industry, calling for the nation to become a Bitcoin mining powerhouse. Trump has also proposed appointing a crypto-friendly chairman for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve, and creating a crypto advisory council for the President.
Bernstein’s report highlights that these initiatives could create a positive regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, which has been lacking in recent years. Over the past three years, the crypto market has faced challenges from both macroeconomic factors and strict regulatory actions.
The regulatory landscape has been particularly tough, with actions taken against major crypto companies like Coinbase and Uniswap. The analysts believe that if Trump wins, his administration’s policies could spur innovation and encourage broader adoption of cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, the report warns that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, Bitcoin could face a significant downturn. Analysts predict that in this scenario, Bitcoin might break its current floor of $50,000 and potentially fall to a range between $30,000 and $40,000.
This predicted drop is attributed to the lack of clear support for cryptocurrencies from Harris, who has not addressed crypto in her speeches or policy proposals. While the Harris campaign has engaged with crypto industry leaders, analysts expect a much wider gap in the crypto policies between the two candidates.
Market Recovery Tied to Election Outcome
The report also pointed out that the crypto market’s recovery could be closely tied to the outcome of the election. A favorable result for Trump could remove existing barriers, allowing financial institutions to participate more actively in the market.
Bernstein’s report comes at a time when Bitcoin ETFs are losing steam, signaling declining institutional interest. These ETFs have experienced their longest run of daily net outflows since their inception, with approximately $1.2 billion pulled out over eight days through early September
In the coming weeks, Trump’s rising support in recent polls could influence market sentiment. According to prediction markets like Polymarket, Trump is currently leading by a slight margin, with a 52% chance of winning compared to Kamala Harris’s 47%. Following the upcoming debate, Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains uncertain as traders hedge their bets in preparation for potential volatility.
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