Ahead of the monthly close, Bitcoin price must consistently close above $65k to avoid further capitulation below $49K.
Bitcoin BTC $96 611 24h volatility: 2.1% Market cap: $1.92 T Vol. 24h: $29.09 B price has faced an immense resistance level of around $64K, which coincides with the 200-day Moving Average (MA) in the recent past. In the four-hour time frame, Bitcoin price has been forming a possible reversal trend, characterized by a rising trend coupled with a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
With the daily death-cross between the 50 and 200 MA already weighing down on the bullish sentiment, veteran trader Peter Brandt has cautioned traders against midterm bearish outlook. According to Brandt, Bitcoin price must consistently close above the July high of about $69,831, which would invalidate the macro bearish trend that began in early March.
Furthermore, the analyst noted that BTC price has been forming an expanding triangle with lower highs and lower lows, despite the positive fundamentals.
Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) continues to be in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Only a meaningful close above the Jul highs would change this sequence and official complete the 6-month expanding triangle pic.twitter.com/GaSBWZRoE6
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) September 25, 2024
In the midterm, Bitcoin’s price could rally toward $65.5K if it holds above the support level of around $63.3k. Otherwise, traders should expect a freefall below $60k if the bears overshadow the buyers in the coming days.
Bitcoin Whales Registers Mixed On-chain Activities
According to on-chain data analysis, some whale investors, led by Bitcoin miners, have been selling their holdings, while others have been busy buying more. In the past 24 hours, on-chain data analysis provided by Santiment shows that Bitcoin miners have sold over 20k Bitcoin, worth over $1.3 billion.
Nonetheless, the supply of Bitcoin in centralized exchanges has declined by nearly 100k units, worth over $6.4 billion, in the past 30 days. As a result, the Bitcoin supply in CEXs is at a multi-year low of about 2.34 million at the time of this report.
The notable decline of Bitcoin supply in centralized exchanges can directly be attributed to the high demand from the US spot BTC ETF issuers. According to the latest market data, the US spot BTC ETFs have registered nearly $1 billion in cash inflows over the past three weeks.
On Wednesday, the US spot BTC ETFs registered net cash inflows of about $106 million, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with a total of around $184 million.
However, Fidelity’s FBTC and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) registered a net cash outflow of about $33 million and $47 million respectively on Wednesday.
The mixed reactions from Bitcoin whales have weighed down the bullish midterm sentiment.
Market Picture
With less than a week to the end of the turbulent September, the fear of further crypto capitulation has significantly diminished in the recent past. Bitcoin’s fear and greed index hovered around 50 percent, denoting market neutrality, as the underlying value traded above $63K.
The upcoming US 2024 elections, amid the shifting economic climate, will trigger a fresh crypto bull run in the fourth quarter. Moreover, Gold and major stock indexes have been on a rising trend, with the former rallying to a new all-time high earlier today.
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