Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2028 as the U.S. faces inflation, capital controls, and economic turmoil.
Bitcoin’s BTC $107 317 24h volatility: 1.3% Market cap: $2.13 T Vol. 24h: $20.35 B path to $1 million remains intact, at least according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. While Hayes says the destination is certain, the journey will be anything but smooth.
In a new essay titled “Fatty Fatty Boom Boom,” Hayes painted a grim picture of the US economy, comparing it to the country’s expanding waistline: bloated, unhealthy, and in deep denial. Yet amidst this dysfunction, he sees Bitcoin as the escape hatch.
A Diseased Economy, a Healthy Hedge
Hayes believes America’s economic trajectory mirrors its obesity epidemic. Just as processed food created a dependence on big pharma, endless money printing has created a dependence on monetary stimulus, Hayes argues.
According to Hayes, the Federal Reserve’s inability to resist hitting the money printer will remain the defining feature of US policy. He predicts more inflation, more volatility, and more intervention, all of which serve as fuel for Bitcoin’s rise.
In an interview, Hayes doubled down on this outlook, saying he expects Bitcoin to touch $150,000 this year before altcoins begin their own rally. “We have a similar setup to 2022,” Hayes said, citing a mix of market fear, uncertainty, and dovish central bank policies, adding:
“They’re going to resort to money printing. Again.”
Capital Controls: The Next Phase
In Fatty Fatty Boom Boom, Hayes warned that America’s next political move won’t be more tariffs, but something stealthier: capital controls.
Arthur Hayes: Foreign capital repatriation and the devaluation of the gargantuan stock of US treasuries will be the two catalysts that will power Bitcoin to $1 million sometime between now and 2028. I reduced risk, raised fiat, in late January. Then, it progressively dipped back…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) May 15, 2025
As foreign capital starts fleeing US assets, bonds, equities, and real estate, the White House may tax incoming investments to discourage further capital flight.
Hayes floated the idea of a 2% annual tax on foreign-held assets, saying it could generate enough cash to eliminate income taxes for most American voters. “Trump could eliminate income taxes for the vast majority of voters,” Hayes wrote, highlighting election benefits.
As foreign investors recoil from being taxed, they’ll begin to sell, putting pressure on the Treasury market. The 10-year yield creeping toward 5% would be the tipping point, he said.
Asia Dollar Index (gold) vs. US 10-year Treasury Bond Yield (white) | Source: Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin: “Lord Satoshi’s” Gift
In Hayes’ view, Bitcoin is the only real escape from this slow-moving financial implosion.
As Asian investors begin repatriating capital, selling US assets and strengthening their own currencies, Hayes predicts more bond volatility and more dollar weakness.
That, in turn, pushes the Fed further into a corner. The cycle becomes self-reinforcing: more volatility, more printing, more capital flight.
Bitcoin, however, doesn’t rely on permissioned systems. Even in countries like China, where exchanges are banned, peer-to-peer markets thrive. “Lord Satoshi hath given unto the faithful, Bitcoin,” Hayes stated.
The numbers support his thesis. If just 10% of the $33 trillion in foreign portfolio assets held in the US moved into Bitcoin, it would ignite a historic rally. A $1 million BTC price tag, he suggests, could become reality “sometime between now and 2028.”
Sentiment around Bitcoin remains broadly bullish. The recent US CPI data sparked optimism across risk assets, driving momentum in crypto. Over 80% of Polymarket voters now expect Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high, with speculation also growing around the next big buy from MicroStrategy.
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