With the US elections just months away, experts predict heightened activity and increased speculation on Polymarket’s platform.
Intense speculation surrounding the upcoming United States presidential election has driven volumes on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket to record highs.
The platform has recorded $116 million in volume in the first two weeks of July, exceeding cumulative volumes for any other month in its history.
Record-Breaking Activity
Polymarket enables users to trade shares using cryptocurrency to speculate on the probability of upcoming events occurring. Dune Analytics reports that Polymarket has achieved $116.4 million in volume this month, surpassing June’s previous record of $111.5 million. This surge is primarily due to the high volume of bets on the US presidential election outcome, with political traders wagering a total of $263.5 million on the November 4 election.
Photo: Dune Analytics
This has helped Polymarket capture over 85% of the global election betting market. Notably, $8.2 million in volume was recorded on the day Trump and Biden debated.
As of now, Trump is favored among Polymarket traders, holding a 69% chance of winning, while current President Joe Biden trails at 19%. Vice President Kamala Harris and former First Lady Michelle Obama are also in the mix, with 6% and 2% chances, respectively.
Growth and Influence of Polymarket
Polymarket’s influence has grown significantly, evidenced by its recent performance metrics. Since the beginning of 2024, Polymarket has seen $471.9 million wagered on various events, including politics, finance, sports, and crypto.
Dune Analytics data shows that Polymarket has handled 3,795,184 bets, totaling $680.45 million, highlighting the growing role of prediction markets in shaping public opinion and engagement, particularly during major events like presidential debates.
This growth has been supported by a $70 million Series B funding round in May, led by Peter Thiel’s Founder Fund, and featuring key participants like Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Despite its inaccessibility to US traders, Polymarket remains a popular platform for betting on American political events, demonstrating the global interest in US politics.
Expert Insight and Future Prospects
Polymarket has enlisted the expertise of election analyst and statistician Nate Silver as an advisor. Silver noted that prediction markets are not just about financial speculation but also valuable for understanding public sentiment during uncertain times.
He emphasized the importance of probabilities in planning and decision-making. Silver is also among the few analysts who view Trump’s choice of crypto-friendly Ohio Senator JD Vance as a potential negative for his campaign.
As Polymarket expands, its influence on political conversations is expected to grow with the upcoming election. Polymarket’s rapid news interpretation adds to its importance in the prediction market landscape, helping understand the dynamics of important events.
With the US elections just months away, experts predict heightened activity and increased speculation on Polymarket’s platform.
next