10x Research stated that amid the ambiguity surrounding the Fed rate cuts for 2024, it believes that Bitcoin is better placed over altcoins, and inflows in ETFs are likely to continue.
Despite the favorable US CPI data, Bitcoin price gave a brief run up to $70,000 on Wednesday, while falling again to $67,000 as the Federal Reserve gave hawkish interest rate projections.
On Wednesday, June 12, the US central bank kept the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 5.25%- 5.5% as per the market expectations. However, the Fed stated that there could be only one rate cut this year, dropping significantly from three rate cuts in March.
The Fed’s new rate cut prediction despite the softer-than-expected CPI data has spooked markets. As a result, 10x Research stated that it would be better for crypto investors to gain exposure to safe-haven assets like Bitcoin while ignoring other assets like Ethereum. In a note to clients on Thursday, June 13, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said:
“Our recommendation remains unchanged: to stick with the winners (Bitcoin) and avoid others (such as Ethereum). Our previous analysis has shown that a lower CPI number tends to lift Bitcoin prices, and we anticipate this trend will continue”.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows to Continue
Thielen stated that the slowdown in inflation has always resulted into strong inflows taking place in spot Bitcoin ETFs. Soon after the CPI numbers came on Wednesday, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered inflows of $100 million after facing two consecutive days of outflows earlier this week.
Thielen noted that ETF inflows halted after the January 11 debut due to higher-than-expected December CPI, which weakened the argument for Fed rate cuts. However, inflows resumed in February, driving Bitcoin higher.
In a note by the end of May, Thielen said:
“ETF flows turned positive at the end of January but only started to accelerate slightly ahead of the CPI data release on February 13. But when inflation again increased to 3.2% on March 12, Bitcoin ETF inflows stopped as the market priced out the narrative of 2-3 rate cuts.”
On the other hand, QCP Capital anticipates a rate reduction in September, citing economic indicators that suggest a cautious approach from the Fed in subsequent meetings scheduled for November and December.
The outlook from QCP Capital remains bullish, driven by expectations surrounding the approval of the ETH ETF S-1 and potential rate adjustments later in the year. This forecast underscores ongoing market uncertainties and the pivotal role of Fed decisions in shaping economic trends moving forward.
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