The $2.86 billion Bitcoin options expiry could trigger short-term volatility, particularly as traders anticipate Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 mark.
Just as the cryptocurrency market is heading for a weekly expiry, Bitcoin price BTC $111 467 24h volatility: 0.3% Market cap: $2.22 T Vol. 24h: $23.15 B has rallied to its new all-time high of $99,502 with its market cap at $1.95 trillion. A total of $2.86 billion in Bitcoin options will expire today hinting at crypto market volatility ahead.
The substantial expiration event could trigger short-term price volatility, especially as markets eagerly anticipate Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 milestone.
A Look into the Bitcoin Options Expiry Data
Data from Deribit shows that 28,905 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on Friday, featuring a put-to-call ratio of 1.09 and a maximum pain point of $86,000.
The put-to-call ratio, which measures market sentiment, currently stands above 1, signaling bearish sentiment despite recent growth fueled by Bitcoin whales and long-term holders.
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Courtesy: Deribit
While everyone is expecting a Bitcoin price breakout above $100K, there could be a brief correction ahead before it finally happens. According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a sell signal on Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart, suggesting a potential correction toward $97,085.
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Courtesy: Ali Charts
However, if Bitcoin manages a candlestick close above $100,470, it could invalidate the bearish pattern. In such a scenario, BTC may climb to targets of $102,656 or $104,343, noted Martinez.
Ethereum Options Expiry and Analyst Predictions
A total of 164,687 Ethereum options contracts are set to expire today, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.66 and a maximum pain point of $3,050. The lower put-to-call ratio reflects a generally bullish sentiment in the ETH market.
As of press time, Ethereum is trading at $3,389. Analysts at Greeks.live suggest Ethereum ETH $3 942 24h volatility: 0.4% Market cap: $475.73 B Vol. 24h: $12.28 B could see continued upward momentum in line with the bullish put-to-call ratio, while Bitcoin appears poised for a potential correction. They added:
“With about 8% of positions expiring this week, the big rally in Ethereum has led to a significant increase in ETH major term options IV [implied volatility], while BTC major term options IV has remained relatively stable. The market sentiment remains extremely optimistic at this point”.
Analysts highlight that despite Bitcoin’s risk of a correction, the broader market rally may prevent a significant pullback. This could be due to the substantial capital inflows into ETFs, particularly BlackRock’s newly launched IBIT options. Yesterday, BlackRock’s IBIT clocked $5 billion in trading volumes.
Also, the total inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday crossed over $1 billion with IBIT alone contributing more than $600 million.
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