$3.8B Bitcoin Options Expiry Hint BTC Volatility Before Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Bitcoin BTC $86 306 24h volatility: 2.5% Market cap: $1.72 T Vol. 24h: $44.34 B and the broader crypto market remain jittery amid Friday’s options expiry, ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.

A total of $3.82 billion in Bitcoin options expired today, as BTC price saw further selling, testing the intraday lows of $112,047. Recent reports suggested that investors have been ditching BTC for ETH ETH $2 824 24h volatility: 3.2% Market cap: $340.87 B Vol. 24h: $16.93 B .

Bitcoin Options Data Hints Market Skepticism

Bitcoin options data shows a bearish tilt, with the put-to-call ratio (PCR) at 1.30, indicating increased downside hedging by traders.

The max pain level stands at $118,000, significantly higher than Bitcoin’s current spot price of $113,019.

Analysts at Deribit noted that upcoming Bitcoin options expiries remain put-heavy, signaling continued short-term skepticism among investors.

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🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨
At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $4.8B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $3.83B notional | Put/Call: 1.31 | Max Pain: $118K$ETH: $948M notional | Put/Call: 0.82 | Max Pain: $4,250

BTC expiry tilts put-heavy, while ETH call interest… pic.twitter.com/AGuHa2Txxs

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) August 21, 2025

Speaking to CoinDesk, Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at crypto market maker Orbit Markets, said that Bitcoin options are pricing a ±2.0% move, around Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Goyal added:

“If his tone leans more balanced than dovish, markets could see a retracement, which has driven demand for downside protection. The skew tells the story: overnight 25-delta risk reversals are currently 6 vols put over call.”

Downside volatility appears more likely if Powell delivers a balanced tone, contrary to broad expectations of rate cut signals. Some traders have been buying put options in anticipation of this scenario.

What Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Can Offer

Whether Jackson Hole triggers a volatility spike or maintains the current calm, options data suggests traders are positioned and hedged, with derivatives markets showing a mix of caution and selective optimism.

Short-term implied volatility has eased despite heavy positioning, signaling that institutional investors do not expect a sharp market move from this week’s policy event.

Market participants are watching for clues on the future path of interest rates and liquidity conditions through the rest of 2025.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, August 22. Investors are closely watching for any indication of a monetary policy shift.

However, expectations for a September rate cut have declined to 70%, as persistent inflationary pressures outweigh concerns from labor market data, leaving Powell in a challenging position.

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