Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle no longer applies, as global liquidity, not block rewards, now drives the market.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle, long tied to halving events, is no longer relevant in today’s macro-driven world.
In a detailed blog post, Hayes explained that while the pattern once helped traders forecast bull and bear phases, it has become obsolete. Instead, Bitcoin price movements are now dictated by global liquidity conditions, especially monetary policy in the United States and China.
Hayes argued that previous market peaks didn’t occur because a cycle “ended” after four years, but because global money supply tightened.
Bitcoin price, he said, has always aligned with the expansion and contraction of liquidity, particularly the availability of dollars and yuan, rather than any fixed halving schedule.
New Drivers of the Bitcoin Market
According to Hayes, the current market cycle diverges sharply from historical norms. The US Treasury has injected roughly $2.5 trillion into markets by drawing funds from the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo program and issuing new Treasury bills.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump has pushed for easier monetary policy, indicating a willingness to “run the economy hot” to boost growth and reduce debt burdens.
In addition, the Federal Reserve has pivoted toward rate cuts despite inflation staying above target. Futures markets now price in a 94% probability of a rate cut in October and an 80% chance of another in December.
This policy shift, Hayes noted, ensures that liquidity remains abundant, which is an essential condition for Bitcoin’s continued uptrend.
Liquidity, Not Halvings, Drives the Market
Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets coincided with global monetary expansion. The first major rally came during the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and a surge in Chinese credit, both of which ended when money printing slowed in 2013.
The next boom, the 2017 ICO era, was a result of China’s credit growth and yuan devaluation. Likewise, the 2020–2021 rally was powered by massive US liquidity injection during the pandemic.
Hayes believes the current cycle follows the same liquidity logic. With both Washington and Beijing showcasing easier financial conditions, Bitcoin remains well-positioned to benefit.
Market Outlook
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $122,000, slightly below its recent all-time high of $126,000. Inflows into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) continue to play a major role in sustaining momentum, recording $899 million in inflows on Oct. 7.
Interestingly, on Oct. 8, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $441 million, marking eight consecutive days of net inflows.
On October 8, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $441 million, marking eight consecutive days of net inflows. Ethereum spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $69.05 million, also extending their eight-day streak of inflows.
https://t.co/Hj2Gs49bWa pic.twitter.com/BZCdctwUtn— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 9, 2025
Data from CryptoQuant shows that open interest on Binance fell nearly 8% after reaching a record $15.07 billion, suggesting traders are taking profits and reducing leverage.
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