Bitcoin’s breakout above $118K is fueled by Binance whales and institutional flows, marking a shift from past retail-driven peaks.
Bitcoin BTC $109 963 24h volatility: 3.1% Market cap: $2.19 T Vol. 24h: $57.04 B has surged to a new all-time high, breaking past the $118,000 price level for the first time in history about two hours ago.
Unlike previous euphoric breakouts led by retail frenzy and excessive leverage, the current upswing is being fueled by a far more restrained and structurally sound set of catalysts.
Until recently, much of Bitcoin’s momentum was driven by whales on US-based exchanges like Coinbase. However, today’s breakout above the previous all-time high came on the back of a significant move from a major whale operating through Binance.
According to Crypto Dan, this isn’t just another surge. It reflects deep-pocketed players deliberately choosing their moment, perhaps aiming to spark the next leg up in a rally still gaining traction.
Spot-Driven Surge With Minimal Leverage
What makes this rally structurally different is the absence of speculative excess. On-chain metrics such as the MVRV ratio, currently at a modest 2.2 compared to 2.7 during the March and December 2024 peaks, suggest that the market is not overbought.
Bitcoin MVRV Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant
Funding rates remain slightly positive, reflecting restrained use of leverage by traders. Open interest is rising in sync with price, not because of new leveraged positions, but due to organic spot demand.
ETF inflows continue to act as a powerful engine for price appreciation. Since mid-April, over $49 billion has poured into Bitcoin ETFs, signaling steady institutional appetite.
Matrixport analysts note that these inflows, combined with the absence of speculative behavior, make this breakout notably more sustainable than previous cycles.
📃#MatrixOnTarget Report – July 11, 2025 ⬇️
Why This Bitcoin Breakout Feels Different#Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #BitcoinETF#CryptoMarket #CryptoRegulation #GENIUSAct#InstitutionalAdoption #DigitalAssets #OnChainFuture#CPI pic.twitter.com/XKjvpK4YWg
— Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) July 11, 2025
Retail Missing the Run, but Fundamentals Back the Climb
Retail investors, often quick to flood in during parabolic moves, remain significantly underexposed this time. UTXO analysis shows that only 15% of Bitcoin is held by short-term investors (those who bought in the last month), compared to 30% during the last ATH.
Moreover, Short-Term Holder SOPR indicates little profit-taking pressure, meaning recent buyers aren’t rushing to exit positions.
Bitcoin SOPR | Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, miners, often a source of sell pressure, are also behaving differently. The Miner Position Index is trending downward, with many mining firms choosing to accumulate Bitcoin rather than liquidate, reducing selling pressure.
Political Winds and Monetary Easing Add Fuel
July has historically been a strong month for BTC, and this time, the seasonal strength is strengthened by political tailwinds. A dovish shift at the US Fed is becoming increasingly likely. Also, the upcoming GENIUS Act is progressing swiftly through Congress.
The legislation could dramatically reshape crypto regulation in the US, offering legal clarity around stablecoins and paving the way for broader digital asset adoption.
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