Traditional Bitcoin market patterns might be changing due to Trump’s executive order on cryptocurrency and increasing institutional involvement, suggesting a possible shift from the historical four-year cycle.
For years, Bitcoin BTC $109 188 24h volatility: 3.6% Market cap: $2.18 T Vol. 24h: $70.31 B has followed a four-year cycle: three years of growth, then a big crash. Investors and analysts have relied on this four-year cycle to predict the market.
As reported by The Block, Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, believes this traditional cycle may be breaking soon. Hougan said President Donald Trump’s recent Executive Order on cryptocurrency could change everything.
How Crypto Executive Order Can Reform the Market
President Trump recently signed an executive order focused on cryptocurrency as part of his first acts in office. As highlighted by Coinspeaker, this EO creates a task force to explore a U.S. digital asset reserve and make crypto a national priority.
Hougan believes this decision could bring massive funds from institutions, corporations, and governments. If this happens, it could reshape the crypto market and challenge the long-standing four-year cycle. He predicted that Bitcoin will double in price this year and surpass $200,000. While this follows the usual cycle, he has noticed something different this time.
More companies, like MicroStrategy, are borrowing money to buy Bitcoin, showing that demand is stronger than ever. At the same time, lending programs let investors use their Bitcoin wealth without selling it, adding to its long-term value.
Another key change is the growing number of leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) and complex financial products linked to Bitcoin. These developments indicate that the market is becoming more aggressive and speculative.
Normally, this would confirm that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is still in place. However, with Trump’s executive order supporting crypto, Matt Hougan believes the market may be entering a new phase that no longer follows past patterns.
The executive order also lays the foundation for clear crypto regulations, which could bring Bitcoin into mainstream finance.
Hougan sees a future where banks hold Bitcoin like cash and stocks, stablecoins are used for everyday payments, and major financial institutions invest heavily in crypto.
Approving Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 was a big step, attracting billions of dollars. However, as Trump’s order envisions, full adoption could bring in trillions. It could break Bitcoin’s traditional cycle and usher in a new era.
Will There Be Another Bitcoin Crypto Crash?
Bitcoin has always followed a pattern of rising for three years before crashing by up to 74%, leading to what investors call a “crypto winter.”
Since Bitcoin performed well in 2023 and 2024, many expect another crash in 2026. However, Matt Hougan doubts this will happen. He believes the market has matured since the 2022 collapse of firms like FTX and Celsius Network, with institutional investors making Bitcoin more stable.
He also pointed to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $700,000, questioning whether such a strong future outlook aligns with a major crash.
While corrections may still occur, Hougan expects them to be smaller and shorter.
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