Dogecoin holders gradually turn desperate as the biggest meme coin fluctuates near $0.25. Amid the rising chances of a parabolic rise with a potential ETF approval, a historic trigger warns of increased downside risk. Will DOGE price trend hold its ground amid increased volatility?
Bitcoin BTC $105 745 24h volatility: 1.1% Market cap: $2.10 T Vol. 24h: $15.97 B is down at $96,300, resulting in a massive pullback in the meme coins. The meme coin’s market capitalization is down to $70.37 billion, with Dogecoin DOGE $0.18 24h volatility: 0.4% Market cap: $26.36 B Vol. 24h: $675.12 M price falling 3% in the past 24 hours.
While sustaining the recently re-established dominance above the $0.25 psychological mark, Dogecoin is hanging by a thread. With bulls nearing a crossroads near the 200-day EMA line, will the broader market pullback drop Dogecoin prices to a new low in 2025? Let’s find out.
Dogecoin Price Hits Crossroads at 200D EMA
In the daily chart, Dogecoin price action reveals a quick bullish recovery over the last week, sustaining dominance above the $0.24 support level. Dogecoin recovered 6.7% last week.
Photo: TradingView
However, the bullish resurgence failed to surpass the dynamic resistance line of the 20-day EMA. With a higher price rejection and a morning star pattern over the weekend, Dogecoin is now trading at $0.2630.
DOGE creates another Doji candle with a minor pullback of 1.01%. Furthermore, Dogecoin price struggles to balance above the 200-day EMA line.
As the short-term price movement reveals a crossroad for Dogecoin, the prevailing downfall continues to create a lower-high trend. Despite this, the momentum indicator MACD gives a positive sign.
With the recent bullish crossover and a rise of positive histograms, the MACD indicator hints at a bullish recovery. However, the dynamic lines are on the verge of giving a bearish crossover between the 50- and 100-day EMA lines.
MVRV Death Cross Against Hopes of DOGE ETF Approval
As the Dogecoin price action hints at a double-edged position, a recent tweet from Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, warns of a sharp pullback. Highlighting the recent death cross between the MVRV ratio and the 200-day EMA line, Ali Martinez expects the Dogecoin price to fall.
#Dogecoin $DOGE just saw a death cross between the MVRV Ratio and its 200-day MA. The last two times this happened, prices dropped 26% and 44%. pic.twitter.com/G5CslTGuMJ
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 17, 2025
As per historical trends, the previous two death crosses – in July 2023 and June 2024 – resulted in a pullback of 26% and 44%, respectively. With the increasing intensity of these pullbacks, the recent death cross could lead to a downfall of 50% or more.
Despite the recent death cross between the MVRV ratio and Dogecoin prices, Ali Martinez also highlights a potential bullish reversal in the meme coin. Currently, in the weekly chart, the Dogecoin price action reveals a parallel channel at play.
If #Dogecoin $DOGE is following a parallel channel, a breakout above $0.58 could set the stage for a move toward $1.80 or even $5.80!
Go to @SimpleFXcom, claim your $5,000 bonus via my link https://t.co/GLjkpQvNJr, and get some before it's too late. pic.twitter.com/eekHepmS5W
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 16, 2025
Considering Dogecoin breaks above $0.50, the bullish recovery could scale to new heights. From the bullish perspective, the optimistic targets extend above the $1 psychological milestone, reaching between $1.80 and $5.80.
Photo: Polymarket
While these bullish numbers may seem unrealistic, the increasing chances of a DOGE ETF in the US market could drive the demand for the biggest meme coin. Currently, as per data from PolyMarket, users anticipate a 75% chance of a DOGE ETF getting approved in 2025.
As Dogecoin hangs near the 200-day EMA line after the recent morning star pattern, a pullback to $0.2465 is highly possible. However, if the bulls manage to avoid a closing price below the 200-day EMA line, this bullish continuation could test the overhead supply ceiling at the $0.30 psychological mark.
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