The crypto market has suffered its first red October since 2018, wiping out nearly all of 2025’s gains after a $19 billion liquidation crash.
After a record-breaking start to 2025, the cryptocurrency market has just endured its first red October since 2018, erasing nearly all gains for the year. At its Oct. 6 peak, the total crypto market cap hit $4.4 trillion, but a swift 20% drop since then has left the market barely 2.5% up year-to-date.
The downturn began with the sudden liquidation of $19 billion in leveraged positions. Bitcoin, which had climbed as much as 35% earlier in the year following President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies, has since crashed 8% this week, falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2022.
Binance Research: A Historic Red October, Not a Broken Market
According to Binance Research’s November report, October said that Bitcoin’s BTC $65 859 24h volatility: 6.7% Market cap: $1.32 T Vol. 24h: $160.84 B dominance rose to 59.4% last month, while institutional appetite for Ethereum ETH $1 935 24h volatility: 7.6% Market cap: $233.39 B Vol. 24h: $71.31 B remained solid.
Despite the sharp 6.1% drop in total market cap, leverage rose again by over 10% to 5.77% by the end of October. Analyst Ali Martinez stated that “the market isn’t broken. It’s maturing.”
Just went through Binance Research’s November report. Really solid!
– We just went through the first red October since 2018.
– Leverage rebounded fast, and sentiment stayed strong.
– BTC dropped by -3.69% and BNB even gained 6%.
– x402 reached over 720,000 daily transactions,… https://t.co/ud5feG567C pic.twitter.com/eWnVXou7pw— Ali (@ali_charts) November 7, 2025
Interestingly, privacy coins and AI-linked blockchain projects turned bullish amid the recent selloff. Binance Research noted a 160% surge in Zcash network activity, surpassing Monero for the first time.
Whale Movements and ETF Inflows
On-chain data confirms that whales, the top 10 Bitcoin exchange depositors, have been relatively quiet. This suggests that the recent volatility may represent the calm before the storm, according to a CryptoQuant contributor.
Bitcoin exchange whale ratio | Source: CryptoQuant
The “Exchange Whale Ratio” remains stable, meaning large holders are waiting for stronger directional signals. At the same time, after six straight days of ETF outflows, spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs recorded $253 million in inflows on November 6, showing early signs of stabilization.
What the Market Needs for a Risk-On Revival
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. explained that for crypto to re-enter a sustained risk-on phase, certain combinations of factors must align. UST yields need to stabilize, volatility indexes (VIX) should compress toward 14–16, and gold’s upward momentum should fade.
For the market to return to risk-on, it needs not just one piece of good news, but a sustained shift in a combination of signals across multiple fronts. UST yields must stabilize or pull back, giving the market confidence. Simultaneously, VIX should compress to 14-16, credit… pic.twitter.com/OfCHA7ojOh
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) November 7, 2025
According to the analyst, a reduction of reliance on safe havens would boost risk assets, like Bitcoin. They said that Bitcoin must defend key support around $100,000 and spot ETF inflows must continue to confirm bull return.
Adler Jr. also added that BTC should reestablish its correlation with broader risk assets to enjoy a sustained rally.
“When 3-4 of these components are met simultaneously for at least 1-2 sessions without new shocks, that’s an emerging sustainable risk-on,” Adler explained.
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