Polymarket Bettors: Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Faces 78% Chance of Release by October

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s legal issues have drawn considerable attention in both legal and crypto communities. After his arrest on August 24, 2024, at Le Bourget airport near Paris, Durov remains detained amid a broad investigation. The investigation involves severe allegations like money laundering, drug trafficking, and child exploitation, though French prosecutors have not yet filed formal charges.

Market analysts and bettors are closely monitoring the situation. Polymarket participants are split on Pavel Durov’s potential release date. French authorities suggest he might be released by Wednesday, August 28, 2024. However, many remain doubtful.

Currently, Polymarket data shows a 78% chance of his release before October. Bettors anticipating a quick release are trading shares at 78 cents, with a potential payout of $1 in USDC if their predictions prove accurate.

Durov’s Arrest Shakes Toncoin Stability

Despite the possibility of a midweek release, many think Durov’s detention may continue. Authorities are still reviewing evidence from interrogations. His release might be postponed if they find enough grounds, leading to formal charges and pre-trial detention. This uncertainty makes the market hesitant, especially as the investigation explores Durov’s alleged role in facilitating illegal activities through Telegram.

Pavel Durov’s arrest has impacted the cryptocurrency market, particularly Toncoin (TON), which is linked to the Telegram founder. Following the arrest, TON’s value dropped almost 20%, now trading at about $5.50, down from recent highs of $7.00. 

Toncoin’s steep drop highlights the market’s worries about Durov’s legal issues and their potential long-term effect on TON. Technical indicators also show a risky outlook for the cryptocurrency, with crucial support levels broken, raising concerns of further declines.

Toncoin Price Struggles Amid Legal Woes

At the time of writing, TON’s price approaches a key $5.30 support level, according to TradingView. Analysts highlight that breaking below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages signals continued bearish momentum, which could lead to more downward pressure. With the legal situation changing, investors are preparing for increased volatility in the coming weeks.

Additionally, the uncertainty about Durov’s future adds complexity for both legal experts and crypto enthusiasts. As this situation progresses, market participants will keep a close watch on the developments, which could significantly impact the future of TON and its wider acceptance.

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