Bybit’s report highlights how macroeconomic factors, including the upcoming inauguration of “crypto president” Donald Trump, are influencing investor sentiment.
Bybit, the world’s second-largest crypto exchange by trading volumes, published a report showing how macro factors are weighing over the turbulence in the crypto market as Bitcoin price continues to face strong rejection at $100K levels. The inauguration of “crypto president” Donald Trump would be crucial to determining the future trajectory and boosting investor sentiment.
Over the past week, there’s been heightened uncertainty in the crypto derivatives market as investors are looking forward to a significant political transition with Donald Trump’s inauguration. The crypto industry has high hopes for Trump, who promised the make America the crypto capital of the world during his election campaign.
However, the Bybit research report shows that the perpetual swap market witnessed a strong liquidity drop during the holidays. As the trading volumes tanked during the past month, the overall volatility across the crypto market also dropped.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Markets Show Diverging Trends
Open interest remained stable compared to the period before the major options contract expiration in December 2024. This reflects a cautious approach and limited hedging activity in the perpetual swap markets.
The options markets for Ethereum ETH $2 046 24h volatility: 3.7% Market cap: $245.71 B Vol. 24h: $74.14 B and Bitcoin BTC $70 209 24h volatility: 4.6% Market cap: $1.40 T Vol. 24h: $158.32 B are signaling notable changes heading into the new year, with a clear divergence between implied and realized volatility. Following the expiration in December, Bitcoin’s open interest is rebalancing following the expiration of options contracts.
On the other hand, ETH’s options market has shown a marked preference for call options. The disparity between the 30-day implied volatility and the 7-day realized volatility for both cryptocurrencies has reached its largest gap since the US elections.
This shows that options traders are pricing in high levels of risk and volatility, despite the relatively calm market conditions at the surface.
ETH Call Options on the Rise
The Bybit Research report shows a major reshuffling in Ethereum (ETH) open interest, with call options gaining traction since December, though put options still dominate in overall volume.
However, the realized volatility in 2025 so far has tempered the optimism surrounding ETH options, thereby forcing option traders to reassess their positions. The volatility term structure has steepened, with short-term volatility (measured over 30 days) remaining more than 15 points above its realized counterpart. This gap is the widest seen since the pre-election period of 2024 when geopolitical uncertainty contributed to volatility premiums.
While the market stabilizes, investors are exercising caution, reflecting underlying uncertainty that may influence the crypto market in the coming months.
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