Eric Balchuna claims that by the end of 2024, there is a 95% chance that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved, up from a 75% likelihood this year.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again postponed its decision on multiple proposals for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This move, affecting applications from major crypto players such as BlackRock and Invesco, has caused serious discussions among analysts. The unexpected turn of events happened two weeks ahead of schedule.
This delay can be attributed to the looming possibility of a US government shutdown, slated to take effect on October 1, should essential funding bills fail to garner Congressional approval. Such a shutdown would inevitably disrupt the operations of the nation’s financial regulatory bodies and other federal agencies. Its avoidance hinges solely on Congress successfully passing 12 distinct full-year funding bills before the October 1 deadline.
This recent delay marks another chapter in the reoccurring postponements by the SEC, bringing back a previous round of setbacks that occurred in late August after the first deadline.
Market Optimism amid Spot BTC ETF Decision Delay by the SEC
Financial experts continue to have a positive outlook on the chances of a Bitcoin ETF being approved as well as the future of the market in general, despite the current regulatory uncertainty. Notably, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchuna claim that by the end of 2024, there is a 95% chance that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved, up from a 75% likelihood this year. A notable court decision in Grayscale’s favor, which hinted at a potential shift in regulatory sentiment, is what led to this optimistic projection.
NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of '24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w "very little wiggle room" via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023
Similarly, the respected crypto analyst known as Crypto Rover shares the conviction that the SEC’s approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF is inevitable. He also cites Grayscale’s recent legal victory against the SEC as a pivotal factor supporting his stance. Moreover, he anticipates that despite the official application deadline set for January 10, 2024, approval for the spot BTC ETF may materialize ahead of schedule. In his words:
“It’s likely that they would approve all of them at once. They wouldn’t just accept BlackRock’s and deny the rest.”
The Market Anticipates the Ultimate Decision
Despite the multitude of speculations and beliefs, the ultimate decision still rests in the hands of the SEC. However, a compelling argument can be made that the SEC may find itself with little choice but to grant approval, particularly given that the companies involved have diligently adhered to the commission’s stipulated requirements. Moreover, mounting accusations of being anti-crypto further intensify the pressure.
The cryptocurrency market is eagerly awaiting the SEC’s decision. The ultimate choice may have a significant impact on the market, possibly changing the course of Bitcoin and other digital assets while affecting investor sentiment. One thing is certain as the sector prepares for this critical juncture: the market’s undivided attention is focused on the SEC’s impending decision, which has the potential to reshape the future of the industry completely.
next