Ethereum has posted 3.% daily gains but is facing a crucial test as the analyst hints at a potential drop below $4,300.
Ether ETH $3 094 24h volatility: 0.4% Market cap: $373.44 B Vol. 24h: $6.31 B is currently recovering from its recent drop to the critical support level, posting a 3.5% daily gain on Aug. 26. Popular analyst Markus Thielen noted that Ethereum is entering a decisive phase as momentum weakens.
Notably, ETH has been respecting its 21-day moving average, currently around $4,355, with multiple bounces observed through early and mid-August. Large buyers and institutions stepped in to defend this level, but the strength of dip-buying appears to be fading.
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Thielen predicted that Ethereum is likely to oscillate between $4,355 and $4,958 in the short term. However, he also noted the risk of retesting levels below $4,355 if sellers regain control.
A Major Long Squeeze
Adding pressure to Ethereum’s trajectory, the derivatives market recently witnessed one of its steepest single-day shakeouts. On Aug. 24, open interest on Binance plunged more than 14% within 24 hours as ETH slid below $4,400.
The sudden collapse triggered widespread liquidations, surpassing the early August contraction of -9%. This points to a forced deleveraging event rather than voluntary selling.
ETH price & OI percent daily change | Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, ETH funding rates cooled to near-zero levels, a zone typically associated with the aftermath of long squeezes. According to on-chain insights from a CryptoQuant contributor, this reflects a collapse in bullish sentiment where late buyers are flushed out of the market.
ETH funding rate by exchange | Source: CryptoQuant
The synchronized fall suggests that leverage-driven demand is drying up quickly.
ETH Price Outlook: Bulls vs. Bears
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading near $4,586 after briefly retesting its long-term support around $4,350. Just two days earlier, ETH had marked a new all-time high at $4,953 before sellers drove the price back down.
On the 4-hour chart, ETH is currently filling a bearish fair value gap between $4,600 and $4,450, with a possible extension toward $4,000 if selling pressure accelerates.
ETH 4-hour chart with possible price directions | Source: Trading View
For bulls to regain control, ETH must reclaim the $4,662 zone and post a daily close above $4,700. Such a move could restore bullish momentum and re-open the path toward $5,000.
Despite the near-term uncertainty, crypto analysts are optimistic. Popular trader Ted suggested ETH could hit $10,000 by year-end.
$ETH $10,000 end of year.
With a dip in September to buy. 👀
I agree with Tom Lee.
— Ted (@TedPillows) August 27, 2025
Ted predicted that before such a surge, traders could see an Ether price drop serving as a good buying opportunity.
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