All eyes are now on the 50-week EMA for Ethereum, and a confirmed breakout above this level could unlock a powerful rally toward $4,000 and beyond.
Ethereum ETH $2 135 24h volatility: 1.0% Market cap: $257.53 B Vol. 24h: $18.91 B is under intense investors’ scrutiny this week as it struggles to reclaim the $3,000 price level despite whale accumulation and bullish long-term fundamentals.
Trading at $2,533.31 at press time, ETH is down nearly 2% in the past 24 hours and about 10% over the last week, showing clear signs of hesitation just below a significant breakout level.
The 50-Week EMA: ETH’s $4K Launchpad?
According to crypto analyst İbrahim COŞAR, the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) is the key hurdle holding Ethereum back. Historically, breaking above this level has triggered rallies between 25% and 135%, with an average gain of 58%.
If history repeats, such a breakout could catapult ETH toward the $4,000 mark, an area that also aligns with the upper trendline of the bullish flag formation visible on the weekly chart.
A multi-year bullish flag consolidation structure, with the lower support trendline dating back to early 2022 has reignited bullish hopes for Ethereum backers.
The Fib retracement from the $1,397 low to the $4,867 high shows ETH currently hovering around the 0.5–0.618 Fib zone ($2,276–$2,683), a classic accumulation zone in bullish market structures.
ETH Weekly Chart | Source: TradingView
RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the weekly chart hovers around 51.97, indicating a neutral stance with room for bullish momentum.
On the other hand, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is beginning to turn bullish, although still slightly indecisive, with the histogram starting to fade bearish momentum.
Whale Accumulation Accelerates
Smart money is clearly betting on ETH. According to on-chain data from Lookonchain, Whale 0xd8d0, who has already profited over $30 million on ETH trades, bought 15,000 ETH for $37.15 million at $2,477.
Whale 0xd8d0, who previously made over $30M on $ETH spent another 37.15M $USDC to buy 15,000 $ETH at $2,477 today.
Over the past week, the whale has spent ~221M $USDC to buy 85,465 $ETH at $2,584.https://t.co/7eUZQPGfROhttps://t.co/5QqI3pFaYj pic.twitter.com/JBfuYD15jZ
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 18, 2025
Over the last week, this whale has purchased 85,465 ETH (worth $221 million) at an average of $2,584. Another address, 0xf680, acquired 11,500 ETH ($29 million) over the past four days.
Another whale "0xf680" bought 3,000 $ETH($7.48M) again 9 hours ago.
This whale has bought 11,500 $ETH($29M) in the past 4 days.https://t.co/79xvt1YWxL pic.twitter.com/3pamzSPpkS
— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) June 18, 2025
Supply Crunch: Staking and Accumulation Hit New Highs
More than 35 million ETH are now staked on the Ethereum network, representing over 28.3% of total supply.
With over 500,000 ETH staked in just the first half of June, and accumulation addresses (those with zero selling history) holding an all-time high of 22.8 million ETH, it’s clear that long-term investors are doubling down.
Fibonacci extensions suggest potential targets at $5,817 (1.618 Fib) and even $8,549 (2.618 Fib) in an extended bull scenario.
$ETH Macro Bullish Flag Formation📈
Ethereum has been consolidating inside a massive bullish flag since 2021.
Each touch of support has led to a strong rally, and we’re in that rally phase again.
🔼 Technical breakout target for $ETH : $8,000
The next expansion phase could be… pic.twitter.com/yd6UtAshfw
— Bitcoinsensus (@Bitcoinsensus) June 17, 2025
However, failure to break above the 50-week EMA ($2,650–$2,700) could lead to a retest of the lower trendline support near $2,000–$2,050. This would align with the 0.786 Fib level and past reaction zones.
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