The analysts underlined that there is no particular reason for the SEC disapproval, it is just a mixture of fear, uncertainty and doubt that can make the approval process difficult.
The Securities and Exchange Commission hasn’t come to final conclusion whether to approve an exchange-traded fund proposed by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss or not. The specific of bitcoin as a digital currency resulted in such a long-term consideration of the SEC – the regulators have been studying the proposal for more than three years. Traditionally, it takes around a year to provide a permit for ETF.
The Winklevoss brothers are looking to list the ETF on the Bats exchange.
The good news is a flood of investment that the fund can gain in case of proposal approval. The investment bank Needham and Co evaluates that the investment can potentially reach $300 million.
However, there is bad news as well. According to Needham analysts, the likelihood of the SEC approval is rather low. They estimate that the chances are probably less than 25 percent.
“In contrast to most of the people that we speak to in the industry, we think the probability that a bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2017 is very low,” analyst Spencer Bogart said in a research note. “To be clear, we don’t see any specific reason to disapprove the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, but, instead, think that the confluence of fear, uncertainty and doubt coupled with basic incentives at the SEC will make it very difficult to get approval.”
This can be rather disappointing for bitcoin followers who expect that the Winklevoss exchange-traded fund will be approved by March 11, which has been set as the deadline for a ruling. Created more than eight years ago, bitcoin has always been generating controversy through its use in the underworld and because of several highly publicized bitcoin thefts.
“We think the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and that the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry,” Bogart wrote.
Nevertheless, he reassured that bitcoin will be fine regardless of approval or disapproval of the ETF. The cryptocurrency was recently traded at the level of $1,184 breaking its all-time high. Though later it dropped by about 22%.
The CNBC informs that the Winklevoss brothers did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
“Overall, this is a low probability event with a very significant upside,” Bogart said of the ETF. “Ultimately, while it appears there is significant pent-up demand from the investment public for such a vehicle, bitcoin itself certainly doesn’t need an ETF and will continue on regardless of the SEC’s decision.”
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