Polymarket data shows a 93% chance of the SEC approving an XRP ETF by December 31, 2025, marking a 23% increase in optimism over the past month.
The chances of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) hit a massive 98% on June 3, as per decentralized prediction platform Polymarket.
As of today’s date, the approval chances stand at 93% by Dec. 31, 2025, according to Polymarket. This is a strong 23% upside over the past month, despite multiple delays by the securities regulator. Two weeks back, the SEC delayed its decision on the Grayscale XRP ETF, with the next review around October this year. Similarly, in April, the SEC delayed its decision over Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF.
However, despite these setbacks, optimism within the XRP community remains high, showing confidence among investors. However, the approval chances for XRP to be approved by the month of July, stand at just 19%.
XRP ETF approval Chances | Source: Polymarket
US SEC Likely to Approve XRP ETF by Q4 2025
The launch of XRP futures on May 19 by CME Group has heightened optimism, with experts suggesting it could improve the likelihood of SEC approval for a spot XRP ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has projected a potential timeline for SEC decisions on cryptocurrency ETFs. Seyffart indicated that while early approvals might emerge by late June or early July, the more likely timeframe for final decisions is in early Q4, with October 18 being a key date to watch
Notably, XRP currently holds the lead among altcoins with the highest number of ETF filings.
Ripple Lawyers Clarifies About XRP Legal Clarity
The Bitcoin community and the XRP community have been at a crossroads recently, with the former questioning the clarity of XRP’s legal status, whether it’s either a security or a commodity. This is despite the fact that Judge Torress gave a landmark decision in the Ripple-SEC lawsuit stating that retail sales of the altcoin don’t constitute investment contracts.
Ripple lawyer Bill Morgan argued that assuming something unclassified lacks legal clarity is a “logical misstep.” He pointed out that the concept of “classification” remains undefined, while calling arguments from the Bitcoin community baseless.
Morgan emphasized that the court’s decision provides ample legal clarity regarding XRP. He highlighted Judge Torres’ conclusion that XRP is not a security. “If we do not know exactly what XRP is, we certainly have the legal clarity of what it is not: it is not a security,” said Morgan.
XRP price is showing a healthy uptick of 2.64% today, moving to $2.25, with trading volumes firm at $2.5 billion.
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