Analyst CrypNuevo forecasts Bitcoin could rally to $116K by Thanksgiving following US government reopening liquidity, but warns of a potential short-term dip to $104K first.
Bitcoin BTC $88 821 24h volatility: 1.3% Market cap: $1.77 T Vol. 24h: $32.67 B could be preparing itself for the next rally that a prominent analyst believes could happen by Thanksgiving and Black Friday, by the end of November. The professional trader, however, seems to believe BTC is not out of the woods yet and could revisit lower prices as a next step before this bullish move.
The analyst is CrypNuevo, a professional trader with notable accuracy in his public calls, made on X and in an open Telegram group, who registered a 100% win rate in 13 recent trades, as Coinspeaker reported on Oct. 27, covering a previous analysis.
On Nov. 8, he explained his thesis that the US Government reopening will inject “some interesting liquidity” into the market, which is expected to have already happened “by Thanksgiving and Black Friday,” on Nov. 27 and 28, respectively. This should push Bitcoin’s price to the upside, together with other markets that could receive part of the liquidity coming from the delayed payouts of up to $70 billion, according to CrypNuevo.
In a post on X on Sunday, Nov. 9, the trader doubled down on this theory, warning that the reopening could happen in the week before Thanksgiving—between Nov. 17 and 20. The target is a two-month range high at around $116,000, with a massive liquidity pool above it that the analyst has been targeting since the Oct. 10-11 crash.
$BTC Sunday update:
Price reached our target from last Sunday – a very interesting level:
1W50EMA, Oct 10th long wick filled, Range lows & $100k psychological level.
This is how I'll be trading next week:
🧵↓(1/7) pic.twitter.com/ICuEdeLEN4
— CrypNuevo 🔨 (@CrypNuevo) November 9, 2025
Bitcoin Short-Term Price Analysis Before Thanksgiving Rally
Nevertheless, a more recent analysis warns traders that Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet and the leading cryptocurrency could revisit lower prices before the forecasted Thanksgiving rally.
This is because “there is a small CME gap,” in the analyst’s words, “in confluence with 1h50EMA retest, range highs & Asian pump retrace.”
$BTC update:
$105.5k liquidations hit and extension to $106.5k resistance done🤝
Now looking to trade the retrace > continuation, the second move:
Price could drop to low $104ks where there is a small CME gap in confluence with 1h50EMA retest, range highs & Asian pump retrace. https://t.co/5pCUcVOlJP pic.twitter.com/nLPDFgRUrV
— CrypNuevo 🔨 (@CrypNuevo) November 10, 2025
A CME gap refers to the price difference between the closing price of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on Friday and the opening price when trading resumes on Sunday. This is often used as an indicator together with other leading indicators like the 50-period exponential moving average, which CrypNuevo also mentions in his analysis, hovering around the same level as the gap.
All this confluence strengthens the prediction that targets a price as low as $104,000, with some potential deviation to the downside before BTC can move to a rally that aims to recover the price loss from the unprecedented crash that liquidated over $19 billion in mid-October.
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