Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have raised the odds of XRP, DOGE, and ADA ETFs to 90% following the SEC’s perceived positive sentiment.
Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, two top Bloomberg Senior ETF analysts, have raised the odds of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs to 90%. Seyffart announced this in an X post, citing the positive engagement with the Commission.
The Journey to Receiving Crypto ETF Approval
The broader cryptocurrency industry has been anticipating a decision from the US SEC regarding several crypto ETF applications that were filed. These include XRP, DOGE, SOL, ADA, DOT, LTC, and NEAR ETFs from different asset managers. These crypto ETFs are designed to enable investors to bet on the price of a specific cryptocurrency.
NEW: @EricBalchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion pic.twitter.com/5dh8G8rK6Y
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) June 20, 2025
They don’t have to hold digital assets and can, therefore, avoid the risks believed to be associated with such asset classes. So far, these funds have attracted tens of billions of dollars in investment capital. While the wait for the approval may have been tiring, there seems to be a ray of hope that the decision may be around the corner.
Seyffart stated that, “Eric Balchunas and I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher.”
He further highlighted how engagement with the regulator has been positive. As of early June, the approval chance of XRP ETFs stood at 93% by December 31, 2025, according to Polymarket.
This marked a strong 23% upside over the past months. About two weeks ago, Balchunas and Seyffart placed the odds of spot XRP, Dogecoin DOGE, and Cardano ADA ETFs gaining approval by the end of the year below 90%. With this recent prediction, these funds have joined the likes of Litecoin, Solana, Polkadot, and Avalanche in having a 90% chance.
It now has a better chance of being approved by the SEC by the end of 2025, although the regulator has been postponing its decisions on most ETF filings.
Seyffart thinks that early approvals could emerge by late June or early July. However, he says the more likely timeframe for final decisions is early Q4, with October 18 being a key date to watch.
VanEck’s SOL ETF Goes on DTCC
While the analysts did not mention Solana ETFs, it is worth noting that this fund has been getting a lot of attention.
On June 18, US-based asset manager VanEck listed the SOL ETF on DTCC’s clearing and settlement platform, which could boost long-term sentiment. This follows the SEC’s earlier decision to extend ongoing altcoin ETF review timelines until H2 2025.
The Vaneck Solana ETF (VSOL) is now listed under its “active and pre-launch” securities. The DTCC listing does not constitute regulatory clearance, but it marks a significant step in preparation for the SEC’s decision.
Meanwhile, the price of SOL has been steadily dropping for a few weeks. At press time, it is pegged at $142.26, representing a 4% decline in under 24 hours.
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