Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading 40% below its intrinsic energy-based valuation, according to a leading entrepreneur in the digital asset space.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes the current market is grossly undervaluing Bitcoin after a brief but powerful rally from $80,000 to nearly $94,000 in April.
According to Edwards’ Energy Value indicator, which calculates BTC’s fair value based on joules of energy input alone, Bitcoin should be trading near $130,000, not under $94,000.
Bitcoin Energy Value is at $130K. We are one year post Halving and Bitcoin is trading at a whopping 40% discount to its intrinsic value. pic.twitter.com/kbqTgTPp5d
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 25, 2025
Complementing this, data from MacroMicro shows the average cost to mine a single Bitcoin now sits at $96,000, placing current prices at a minor discount.
US Fed’s Major Announcement
Adding fuel to this already bullish setup is a game-changing announcement from the US Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve officially withdrew its 2022 and 2023 guidance that restricted banks’ crypto-related activities, including the requirement for pre-approval for crypto services. Now, banks are free to engage in crypto under standard supervisory processes.
With regulatory friction finally easing, especially in the world’s largest economy, Bitcoin’s path to institutional adoption just got a lot smoother.
Banks are now free to begin supporting Bitcoin. https://t.co/mw7KjqJbQr
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) April 24, 2025
The removal of red tape could invite US banks to re-enter or expand crypto offerings, including custody, dollar token infrastructure, and direct Bitcoin holdings, boosting both legitimacy and liquidity.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Bitcoin is hovering around $93,717, just above a key Fibonacci level and near the lower boundary of a high-volume node between $93k and $103k, which acted as a major value area in late 2024.
The market-leading digital asset recently surpassed silver and Amazon, becoming the sixth most valuable asset in the world.
If bulls hold this zone and flip it into support, a rotation to $103k is the next logical target. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 67, reflecting strong bullish momentum but not yet overbought.
The MACD has made a clean bullish crossover with widening histograms, suggesting continued upward movement.
BTC’s Daily Chart | Source: TradingView
On the Fibonacci retracement, Bitcoin recently broke above the 0.5 and 0.618 levels, often seen as key turning points in bullish reversals.
If Bitcoin can reclaim the $103k level and break above it with volume, it re-enters territory that previously led to an 18% drop.
A sustained move above that zone could be a signal for bulls to aim toward $120K–$130K, aligning with Edwards’ energy-based fair value.
ARK Invest’s $2.4M Prediction
Meanwhile, ARK Invest’s new long-term projection offers even more reason for optimism.
In its updated report, ARK revised Bitcoin’s bull case target to $2.4 million by 2030, citing strong institutional interest and increasing adoption across global portfolios.
Even its base case suggests a price of $1.2 million, pointing to sustained exponential growth in the years ahead.
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