Polymarket traders think that there is only a 21% chance that the Bitcoin price reaches $150,000 this year.
Polymarket traders are not fully convinced that the Bitcoin BTC $68 386 24h volatility: 0.5% Market cap: $1.37 T Vol. 24h: $36.06 B price can push to $150,000 in this new year. They do not even think that the coin can surpass its last All-time High (ATH) recorded in 2025. Polymarket data shows a 45% chance of the flagship cryptocurrency reaching $120,000, a figure that is below its all-time high.
What does the Future Hold for Bitcoin?
With the new year now on, the question in the current market is “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?”
In response to this, many analysts and market watchers are quite optimistic about Bitcoin price hitting $150,000 in 2026. This, however, is not Polymarket traders’ position on the matter. Notably, they do not entirely dismiss the possibility, but they still harbor doubts.
Apart from the 45% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120,000, these traders think that there is a 35% probability that the coin will hit $130,000.
Going further, some Polymarket traders say there is a 28% chance that the firstborn digital asset gets to $140,000, while $150,000 has a 21% chance. More traders are playing it safe at $100,000, with an 80% chance.
The end of the four-year cycle may have contributed to the caution that traders have towards the coin. Moreso, Bitcoin closed the previous year in the red.
At press time, BTC has a market value of $89,082.34, even with a 1.66% increase within the last 24 hours. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that its 24-hour trading volume is resting at $21.96 billion following a 31.16% dip.
Institutional Investors Commit to Bitcoin
Amid the Bitcoin price plunge, a few entities have remained committed to increasing their stash. In Q4 2025, Metaplanet added 4,279 BTC to its total holdings, a move that reiterates its sustained Bitcoin strategy.
As of December 30, the Japanese firm held 35,102 BTC, currently worth about $3.1 billion. It is worth noting that Metaplanet’s consistency with BTC is not without its own struggles. Its shares have seen a notable drop in the last few weeks.
More recently, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, Tether, saw an opportunity to buy more BTC. As Bitcoin fell from the $88,000 mark, Tether added another 8,889 BTC, valued at $778.7 million, to its reserves.
These acquisitions may play a big role in fueling the expected Bitcoin price breakout.
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