XRP price approaches a critical technical junction. A strong daily close above the wedge pattern potentially triggers a rally toward $4.
Ripple’s native cryptocurrency, XRP $1.34 24h volatility: 5.7% Market cap: $81.97 B Vol. 24h: $2.10 B , remains on investors’ radar amid recent price volatility around $3.00. On the technical charts, the XRP price is currently at a crucial junction, breaking past which could stage a rally to $4. However, the recent whale activity warrants caution, putting investors at a crossroads.
XRP Price Eyes Key Breakout to $4
Crypto analyst Lark Davis said he is closely watching XRP’s price action as the token approaches a potential breakout point.
According to Davis, a strong daily candle close above the upper trendline of the current wedge pattern could trigger a move toward the $4 level. This shows a renewed bullish momentum for the Ripple cryptocurrency.
Watching for XRP to break out of the wedge.
Good solid daily candle close above the top orange line should start the move up to $4.
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— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) October 6, 2025
Similarly, another crypto analyst, EGRAG Crypto, noted that XRP is currently attempting to secure a strong monthly close within the $3.13–$3.20 range.
According to the analyst, if XRP maintains this momentum over the next 26 days, it could mark the highest monthly closing price in the token’s history. EGRAG added that it’s “surprising many people are feeling bearish right now,” despite the bullish setup.
XRP price eyes breakout past $3.2 | Source: EGRAG Crypto
On the other hand, the uncertainty around the US government shutdown has put the approval of the XRP ETF, along with other crypto ETFs, in limbo. Thus, the delay in launch might further delay the upcoming rally in the absence of a catalyst.
XRP Whale Activity Warrants Caution
On October 6, Whale Alert flagged a transfer of 18,744,800 XRP from an unknown wallet to one associated with Ripple, valued at approximately $55.87 million. The sizable move has sparked concerns in the community over potential further liquidations.
Despite the transfer, XRP’s price remained muted, reflecting limited support from whales. Data from CryptoQuant’s XRP Whale Flow 30-day moving average indicates that whale flows are still negative, signaling ongoing distribution pressure on the asset.
XRP Whale Flows | Source: CryptoQuant
At the same time, the XRP balance on exchanges has surged sharply, indicating heightened selling activity. Over the past seven days, roughly 320 million XRP, valued at nearly $950 million, have been moved to trading platforms.
XRP exchange balance rising | Source: Glassnode
Analysts note that this reflects a shift in investor behavior, with holders opting to take short-term gains rather than maintain long-term positions. Such patterns can weaken market stability and hinder sustainable price recovery.
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