Bitcoin, Crypto Markets Brace for US Inflation Data Impact
By Daniel Francis
Edited by felixakiyama
Updated
2 mins read
Bitcoin BTC $67 882 24h volatility: 0.9% Market cap: $1.36 T Vol. 24h: $47.60 B and the broader crypto market are bracing for potential volatility as traders await the delayed January US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report now scheduled for release this week. BTC hovers near $68K, struggling to establish a solid floor after a correction triggered by evolving macroeconomic expectations.
FED RATE CUTS STILL LIKELY—BUT NO RUSH: UBS
Easing U.S. inflation should keep the Federal Reserve on track for rate cuts despite strong jobs data, UBS Global Wealth Management says. It expects two 25-basis-point cuts in June and September, supporting equities, bonds, and gold.…
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 12, 2026
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The postponed BLS inflation print has gained outsized importance following January’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, 130,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment falling to 4.3%, which pushed back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts and strengthened the “higher-for-longer” interest-rate outlook. Traders are evaluating whether the CPI will support the Fed’s 2% target or confirm persistent inflationary pressures.
Adding another layer of complexity, President Trump’s nomination of pro-Bitcoin advocate Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair (effective post-May) introduces possible long-term shifts in monetary policy that could influence risk-asset sentiment and Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months ahead.
NEW: Job growth SURGED in January, adding 130,000 total non-farm jobs and 172,000 private sector jobs — shattering expectations once again.
The unemployment rate fell. Wages grew. Federal employment is now at its lowest level since 1966.
This is the Trump Economy 📈📈📈 pic.twitter.com/JxyUYGE1c9
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) February 11, 2026
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Bitcoin Price Action Source: TradingView
If tomorrow’s CPI data comes in “hotter” than 2.5%, a break below the $60,000 psychological floor is likely. This level represents a critical support zone where institutional “buy-the-dip” orders are concentrated. Conversely, a lower-than-expected inflation reading could cause a squeeze back toward the $74,400 resistance level.
Data from the CME FedWatch tool currently shows a nearly 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in the near term.
Target Rate Probabilities for 18 Mar 2026 Fed Meeting Source: FedWatch
Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, warned that “good news” for the economy, such as robust growth or sticky prices, is currently treating markets to “bad news” by delaying liquidity injections.
While some analysts argue that the crypto winter that began in January 2025 presents signs of recovery, the immediate price action remains tethered to this week’s critical data release.
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Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Daniel Frances is a technical writer and Web3 educator specializing in macroeconomics and DeFi mechanics. A crypto native since 2017, Daniel leverages his background in on-chain analytics to author evidence-based reports and deep-dive guides. He holds certifications from The Blockchain Council, and is dedicated to providing "information gain" that cuts through market hype to find real-world blockchain utility.