On Thursday, April 23rd, the BTC rate is marking time, waiting for new market catalysts. The cryptocurrency is generally trading at around $7,100.
By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex.
- Bitcoin price has managed to go above $7,000
- The market is considering the changes after the halving
- Cheap oil could have the BTC to grow
On W1, the picture seems without much change: the quotations are still trading in a narrow range. After a rapid decline, the pair is trying to restore its positions. Technically speaking, the price is struggling to form an inverted Pennant. The Bitcoin is trading under 50.0% Fibo. The MACD has declined below zero, signaling a possible reversal. Hence, the price may decline rapidly in the nearest future.
D1 does not differ much from W1. The instrument keeps correcting after a swift decline, trading near 50.0% Fibo. On the chart, it looks like a flat, confirmed by the MACD: the histogram is alternately above and below zero, weaving with the signal line. This is an additional signal of the MACD being in a flat. Comparing the two charts, we may come to certain conclusions, rather unfavorable for the coin: for now, it is very unlikely to grow.
H4 looks more promising in terms of growth. The price keeps moving inside an ascending channel. However, the Stochastic has formed a Black Cross near 80, which, in turn, may forecast a decline. The potential aim of the decline might be $5900.00 USD. On the longer timeframes, the probability of a decrease looks graver but the goals are not that global.
After the long-awaited halving happens in the BTC network, and the raining period starts in China, miners will have much fewer opportunities to influence the crypto market. According to the head of the Bitmain platform Jihan Wu, miners will have to adopt a wait-and-see attitude after the reward for a mined block will be decreased – until the network stabilizes.
The hash rate is likely to decrease by 20% averagely. However, we should not expect significant growth of the BTC rate and renewal of all-time highs right now. Wu states that everything remains in its place: holding long positions and controlling risks still looks reasonable.
This week, the oil market experienced an epic event: the WTI futures for May decreased to negative values (reaching -40 USD at the moment). On platforms, the risk-off system triggered, increasing the sensitivity of not only commodity currencies but also safe-haven assets, such as gold or even the BTC. The cryptocurrency has not yet become a true safe-haven asset but it has all chances. Market participants may partly hedge risky positions if they do not see any perspective of the growth of digital money in the long run.
On the market, they are voicing the opinion that after the story with oil that costs nothing, no one will dare say that the BTC is an empty thing. It could be worse. Now, the BTC volatility has declined to its three-months lows, which happens rather frequently before significant fluctuations in the leading cryptocurrency.
Disclaimer: Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors' particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
Dmitriy Gurkovskiy is a senior analyst at RoboForex, an award-winning European online foreign exchange forex broker.