The leading crypto is down 30% from its October peak and is heading for its worst fourth quarter in seven years.
Bitcoin is trading near $87,500 at the time of writing, down 2.4% on the day. Since October, the cryptocurrency has lost more than $700 billion in value, with the total market cap currently around $1.74 trillion.
The analyst projects a BTC price rally above $110,000 once regulatory clarity arrives.
Risk Curve View
Meanwhile, market expert Daniel Kostecki said Bitcoin is behaving as expected on the risk curve.
When liquidity falls, high-risk assets are sold first. Stocks and metals benefit from deeper capital pools, while crypto faces faster downturns during risk-off periods.
nope – it is called risk curve. With falling liquidity the alternative investments are first to be sold off pic.twitter.com/TpGZxSLwek
According to CryptoQuant analysts, Bitcoin is still treated as a high-beta asset, not a true safe haven.
In risk-off markets, capital flows first into gold and government bonds, leaving Bitcoin dependent on marginal demand.
Bitcoin apparent demand has recently turned negative, which means new buyers are not stepping in.
Bitcoin apparent demand. | Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, Short-Term Holder SOPR suggests many short-term holders are selling at a loss or near breakeven. This behavior adds selling pressure on every price rebound.
Bitcoin short term holder SOPR. | Source: CryptoQuant
Santa Rally Canceled?
QCP Capital noted BTC is range-bound due to thin liquidity ahead of the Christmas holiday season and year-end institutional deleveraging. Bitcoin perpetual open interest has fallen by roughly $3 billion.
QCP said weakening liquidity ahead of the Christmas holiday and year-end institutional deleveraging have kept BTC range-bound. BTC and ETH perpetual open interest fell by roughly $3 billion and $2 billion, respectively. QCP added that year-end tax-loss selling could increase…
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A crypto journalist with over 5 years of experience in the industry, Parth has worked with major media outlets in the crypto and finance world, gathering experience and expertise in the space after surviving bear and bull markets over the years. Parth is also an author of 4 self-published books.