By
Steve Muchoki
April 25th, 2024
As the markets have started to recover after the recent fall, Bitcoin price has finally managed to go beyond the level of $8,000 today.
The VIX volatility index, the stock market’s main risk indicator, skyrocketed to 55 on March 9. Created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. But not only the traditional markets have reacted to the global situation, but Bitcoin has also felt its impact. Only today Bitcoin price has finally managed to go beyond $8000.
Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors’ sentiments. It is also known by other names like “Fear Gauge” or “Fear Index.” Investors, research analysts and portfolio managers look to VIX values as a way to measure market risk, fear and stress before they take investment decisions. On Tuesday at 9:48 am CET it spiked even more – by 16.40%. These are the highest level since 2009.
Gold Definitely Not a Safe Haven
Gold yesterday grew above $1,700 in but was later slapped back down amid extreme volatility conditions. At the time of writing at 9:52 am CET the price was down by 1% to $1,663. Coronavirus fears were dominant on Monday but markets are bouncing on Tuesday. Still it doesn’t look encouraging. So, what is next for XAU/USD? Two resistance lines cap the upside and breaking above them may send gold higher.
The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that critical resistance at $1,663, which is the convergence of the Simple Moving Average 100-1h, the Pivot Point one-month Resistance, and the Bollinger Band 15min-Middle.
Bitcoin Not a Safe Haven As Well?
On the other hand, Bitcoin (BTC) has hardly managed to move beyond $8000. At the time of writing, BTC is at $8078, having gained $2.48 over the last 24 hours.
Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO at Coinbase said:
“Surprised we’re seeing the Bitcoin price fall in this environment, would have expected the opposite.”
BlockTower co-founder Ari David Paul tweeted:
BTC isn't a safe haven (yet). I've always predicted it would decline with a big equity sell off. Frankly, I'm very surprised at how well it's held up. BTC up 7%+ on the year with equities down ~15%. We'll have to see what happens, but darn good performance for a risky asset.
— Ari Paul ⛓️ (@AriDavidPaul) March 9, 2020
Derivatives trader Tony Stewart commented:
3) These flows increased vols and put skew which has been relatively unloved recently in the <1m expiries, flipping +ve, and being driven up >1m out. This skew (shown below) measures a fear for further downside moves.
Chart @skewdotcom pic.twitter.com/5Ix3KJrCo2— Tony Stewart (@PelionCap) March 9, 2020
PlusToken, COVID-19 or Neither?
Some analysts say this is the consequence of selling of 13,000 BTC by China-based PlusToken. This is, they say, fueling speculation operators of the alleged Ponzi scheme are attempting to liquidate large holdings, pushing prices lower.
However, James Hapak, a Toronto-based digital asset manager and over-the-counter market trader says that this isn’t Covid-19, or PlusToken related. “Just mini-whales taking orders from large institutions to liquidate longs at $9,000 and $10,000. This has been done in this range for months.”
Meanwhile, prices of crude oil rebounded at the start of the trading session on Tuesday, rising over 7% after yesterday’s dip of over 30% in what was the crude’s biggest collapse in almost three decades.
The crash followed Saudi Arabia’s decision to start an oil “price war” and boost its production by over 10 million barrels per day in April. This after failing to reach a deal about price cuts with Russia at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries meeting. West Texas Intermediate for April settlement jumped 8.29% at 8:18 pm ET to $32.62 per barrel. At the same time, Brent futures for delivery in May soared 7.03% to $35.77 a barrel.