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While BTC is rather unstable today, according to Google Trends data, as well as to other factors, we can suggest that the Bitcoin halving in May will cause a spike in the BTC price.
As Bitcoin’s upcoming halving draws closer, the market seems to be factoring it into every decision and discussion being had. The halving is expected to do a lot for the Bitcoin price because of the scarcity it inevitably ensures. Regardless, while many people are optimistic that the price of Bitcoin will surge because of the halving, there are a lot of people who believe that the halving has been priced in and will not make much difference when it happens. However, Google Trends data suggests that the Bitcoin halving will spike prices.
Bitcoin Halving Queries on Google Trends Is Increasing
People usually use Google Trends data to measure general interest in something or predict behavior. The premise here is simple. If search queries for something are increasing then there is renewed and growing interest in it. For the Bitcoin halving, related Google Trends data shows an unignorable surge in interest.
The data shows that for more than a few months, there wasn’t a lot of interest in the halving event. However, beginning in December, things began to change significantly and interest started to surge. At the time of this surge, the Bitcoin price was far from encouraging. Evidently, that wasn’t enough to sour interest about the halving.
Previous Google Trends Data for Bitcoin Halving
A similar occurrence happened in 2016, the year of the last halving. Just like right now, the Bitcoin halving queries on Google Trends also increased continuously at the time. It continued increasing until it peaked just shortly after the 2016 halving. Current data shows that Bitcoin halving seems to have peaked at a 100 score. Pound for pound, Google Trends data might be a good enough predictor and shows that investors are in for a treat.
Current Bitcoin Price Trajectory Is Similar to 2016’s
Another factor to consider as the halving comes up, apart from Google Trends data, is the similarity in price movement. Bitcoin is swinging relatively similar to its past trajectory at the last halving.
Firstly Bitcoin hit the 200-week moving average (MA) support in August 2015 and December 2018. Since the last time, it’s been 427 days. This is similar to 2016 because 427 days since the first support line achievement in August 2015 puts us in November 2016, after the last halving.
An analyst on Twitter, @KingThies, suggests that even though Bitcoin has dropped to levels around $9,600, its well on its way to $11k. King Thies cites the Bollinger Bands Width Squeeze which shows how heavy prices swing. According to him, the recent downswing will precede an upswing to $11k.
Even with all of that, there is some worry about the drop below $10,000. Adding to the volatility, a tweet from on-chain intelligence analyst @thetokenanalyst reports that 600 BTC, about $5.8 million was deposited into BitMEX in one single transaction. There is the worry that a movement like this will further make Bitcoin unstable.