Grayscale argues that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle is no longer valid, citing the absence of a parabolic rally.
By Bhushan Akolkar
Editor Julia Sakovich
Updated
2 mins read
Despite the latest Bitcoin BTC $90 978 24h volatility: 7.5% Market cap: $1.82 T Vol. 24h: $79.61 B price drawdown to $85,000 and major market liquidations, Grayscale remains confident of BTC hitting new all-time highs in 2026. The asset manager added that the four-year cycles are a thing of the past and are no longer valid any further. With Bitcoin already seeing a 21% correction over the past month, Grayscale’s comments have instilled some confidence among investors.
In a report published on Dec. 1, asset manager Grayscale BTC is unlikely to follow the four-year cycle moving further. The four-year cycle typically reflects the long-time belief that BTC price tends to peak and later undergo a major correction every four years. In the report, Grayscale analysts noted:
“Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year.”
The asset manager also cited several structural reasons for BTC to end the four-year cycle. The firm noted that, unlike previous bull runs, this cycle has not produced the typical parabolic surge that often precedes a major correction.
Bitcoin parabolic surge is missing in 2025 | Source: Grayscale
According to its analysis, institutional capital is now the dominant force, flowing primarily through Bitcoin ETFs.
Grayscale added that the broader macro environment is also more supportive, with potential Fed interest-rate cuts and growing bipartisan momentum on crypto legislation. The asset manager also noted that Bitcoin Treasury firms like Strategy (MSTR) have a dominant role to play.
Tom Lee, CEO of Ethereum treasury firm BitMine, echoed Grayscale’s assessment. He stated that there is a widening gap between underlying market fundamentals and current asset prices.
Bitcoin bulls failed to hold above $90,000 levels after a breakout last week. On Dec. 1, the largest crypto saw yet another pullback, falling all the way to $86,000.
Market analyst Ted Pillows stated that Bitcoin is currently trading in a neutral zone, offering no clear directional bias.
$BTC is currently in no zone.
Either Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $88,000 level, or it'll drop towards the November low. pic.twitter.com/zuigM6EaJh
— Ted (@TedPillows) December 2, 2025
According to Pillows, BTC must reclaim the $88,000 level to regain bullish momentum. If the recovery fails, he warned that BTC could revisit the November lows of under $80,000.
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Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.