By
Bena Ilyas
April 18th, 2024
Pantera Capital’s CEO Dan Morehead pointed to a potential Bitcoin price move to $356k within three years based on past trends of BTC price movements on a logarithmic scale. Morehead’s math also indicated that Bitcoin price targets $42k in 2019.
Even though we are witnessing pretty bearish outlook on Bitcoin, there are some experts who believe that this is just a short-term situation. Just for reminder, a few days ago Bakkt launched test for their Bitcoin Futures platform and, contrary to the popular beliefs – Bitcoin price went down. However, it was only a test while the real launch is expected in this years’ third quarter.
Be it as it may, Dan Morehad, a CEO of Pantera Capital believes that Bitcoin price is still on track to hit record highs this year. Speaking on the latest episode of the Unchained Podcast, Morehead said that they are standing by their trusted Bitcoin price analysis to determine future performance.
This includes the possibility of BTC/USD hitting $356,000 in 2021 if its historical compound annual growth rate persists.
During the 2018 bear market, when Bitcoin traded at $3100, Pantera calculated what growth would be if the price returned to its historical trend line and then kept up that performance in future years. Morehead said:
“That put Bitcoin at $42,000 at the end of 2019, which I know sounds crazy, but essentially we’re halfway back there. It’s right on the trend line, and I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year, we hit that, and then if you just extrapolate that line out for another year, it’s $122,000 per Bitcoin and in one more year $356,000.”
However, he admitted that he may sound crazy but said that everybody thought of him as “nuts” when the price of Bitcoin was $100 and he predicted it would go to $5000.
Asked about the possible development of the cryptocurrency space as a whole, Morehead looked up to the Gartner Hype Cycle, a method of interpreting the wide-ranging levels of hype that can occur around new technologies. He explained:
“A small kernel of something very important gets people to be crazed about Bitcoin and then the trough of disillusionment occurs. And we’ve already gone through two of those cycles in the six years that we’ve been investing in it.”
He also said it’s important to remember that Bitcoin and the technologies around it are a project that will take two decades to unfold and that we’re only ten years into it at this point. He added that there is still approximately ten years to go before this is fully realized.
Morehead also seems to be bullish on Facebook’s Libra. He said Facebook did a “clever thing” by making it pegged to a basket of currencies. By distributing the value between different currencies, it will reduce volatility. However he seems pretty unreal when saying that it could become the next reserve currency.
“The reserve currency has shifted 4 or 5 times over the last five centuries. You could imagine something like Libra, a basket token, ultimately becoming a place that countries can store wealth in.”
Morehead isn’t out alone in his bold predictions about Bitcoin. The newest research note from crypto prime dealer SFOX indicates there may be a correlation between the Bitcoin price and holidays, at least during pronounced bull runs. The note from the SFOX research team shows that 2017’s massive rally in the crypto asset market went around Thanksgiving and Christmas in the United States and a more recent price increase went on during China’s Spring Festival this year.