In general terms, Ethereum had a month of losses in September with two downward waves and bleak prospects of a recovery in the near term.
Ether Loses Half of Its Summer Gains
The only day when Ether registered substantial growth before the falling began was 1st September when it jumped 9.75% on the day, with the peak at $488. But the gains were short-lived. In the next four days, ETH/USD dropped from $479 to $308 on 5th September, having only climbed to $359.5 at the end of the month.
The sharp fall that ended on the 5th September was contained by the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $328, with the retracement stretched from the start of the ascend that began in mid-July to its high on 1st September. The retracement worked very well, sending the ETH/USD trading pair from one level to another multiple times. After the fall, the price retraced some of the losses, climbing to the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $358.5 on 6th September, but slumped down again to $328 the next day. A break through the 0.5 Fibonacci level happened on 10th September, turning it into support.
The 0.618 Fibonacci level positioned at $389 was the next major level of resistance, which has remained unbroken until the end of the month, eventually driving the price back to the lows of 5th September. But before that happened, the ETH/USD cross rate made a few falls and recoveries between the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci levels. First, on 13th September, the price fell to the 0.5 level, whereof it climbed on 14th September to the $378 daily resistance level. Being driven back, Ether took another attempt at testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level, rising as high as $394.7 on 17th September. However, the breakthrough did not happen, and the price took another dive down to go as low as $313 on 23rd September.
Supported by the sharp recovery in Bitcoin, Ether did not go lower and stabilized well above $328 until the end of September, trending up towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level and reaching it on 27th September, and closed the month at $359.5.
Ethereum Pressured by Lack of Certainty
Despite a slight rebound from the September lows, Ethereum remains on a downward course, with each new high getting lower the previous one on the daily trend, which indicates a clear downtrend. The Ethereum market development will largely depend on Bitcoin, as the flagship cryptocurrency has dominated the market throughout the years, with Binance coin being the only exception that escaped its influence. Therefore, Bitcoin will be an important factor in a possible Ether recovery.
But from the fundamental side of things, the cryptocurrency community is waiting for the Ethereum 2.0 mainnet, whose launch is scheduled for October – November 2020. The doubled throughput that it will provide may have a substantial positive impact on Ethereum in market terms.
Still, the critical technical barrier, the breaking of which will indicate the end of the current downtrend, is the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $389. Once Ethereum manages to capitalize above it, more buying bets will start to accumulate in the Ethereum market. But getting there may take another month.
Executive Director at CEX.IO. His area of responsibility includes customer relationships with institutional and VIP-clients, overseeing the creation of the company’s development strategy, new products, markets and partnerships. As a member of the board of directors, Konstantin is also responsible for corporate governance.