The odds of national US BTC reserve by end-2025 were 54% on Kalshi but below 50% on Polymarket.
By Benjamin Njiri
Edited by Marco T. Lanz
Updated
2 mins read
The US Bitcoin reserve race has gained massive traction, with 21 states now having active bills aiming to allocate part of their public funds to BTC BTC $84 404 24h volatility: 0.6% Market cap: $1.67 T Vol. 24h: $25.48 B .
According to the VanEck report, if the current bills are approved, it could lead to at least $23B in BTC demand. Commenting on the report, Mathew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research, stated that the demand could increase if legislation proceeds to the next stages.
Photo: VanEck
Most state proposals eyed a 1%-10% fund allocation to the ‘digital gold’ to diversify their reserves.
According to data tracked by Bitcoin Laws, most BTC reserve bills are either at the introduction level or second reading. However, none have been enacted into law yet as of this writing.
That said, Utah (UT) and Arizona led the rest of the states in terms of the progress of their bills.
Photo: Bitcoin Laws
Utah’s bill has proceeded to the second reading stage, and its fate could be determined by the final voting in the chamber before it’s adopted and enacted as law. Arizona and Oklahoma both tied for the second position. Both their bills were in the first reading.
However, BTC reserve bills in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota have hit dead-ends. It’s worth noting that Siggel’s analysis only covers estimates from BTC reserves and doesn’t include state pension funds.
Since some proposals also include separate allocations to pension funds, the demand could be explosive if they are ratified and adopted.
On the national level, the BTC reserve will depend on the outcome of the digital asset working group created by President Donald Trump. The group was given about 6 months to develop a legislative framework for the same, per the President’s executive order.
Interestingly, the markets haven’t fully priced a national US BTC reserve. According to the prediction site Kalshi, the odds of such an outcome this year were 54%. Polymarket chances for the same were below 40% as of this writing.
Photo: Kalshi
Taken together, the data from the prediction sites suggested the market wasn’t overly optimistic about a national BTC reserve this year, at least of this writing.
By extension, this meant that President Trump’s surprise creation of the BTC reserve could massively fuel the BTC $84 404 24h volatility: 0.6% Market cap: $1.67 T Vol. 24h: $25.48 B rally.
Disclaimer: Coinspeaker is committed to providing unbiased and transparent reporting. This article aims to deliver accurate and timely information but should not be taken as financial or investment advice. Since market conditions can change rapidly, we encourage you to verify information on your own and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content.
Benjamin is a Telecommunication Engineering graduate who is passionate about crypto-markets and unraveling market trends. Armed with data, charts and patterns, he's interested in making the intricate, complex landscape of digital assets easier for every user.
