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Pantera Capital believes that the recent XRP ruling, possibility of a BlackRock ETF and the next Bitcoin halving will spike prices.
Bitcoin’s next halving is expected in 2024 and is projected to pump the price of the king coin as seen in previous halvings. While there are more than a few bullish predictions, American crypto hedge fund Pantera Capital has added to this list with thoughts and predictions about the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
In its recent Blockchain Letter authored by Pantera Capital execs Dan Morehead, Paul Veradittakit, Matt Stephenson, and Andres Harris, the view on Bitcoin is positive. In the letter, Pantera uses previous halvings to make a projection. The letter notes that the 2016 halving tanked Bitcoin’s supply a third as much as the first. In 2020, the third halving reduced the king coin’s supply by 43% and pumped prices by 23%. Following this trajectory, Pantera Capital believes Bitcoin will hit $148,000 after the halving. The company wrote:
“The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024. Since most Bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will be almost exactly half as big a reduction in new supply. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see Bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.”
The upcoming halving will reduce Bitcoin mining rewards to 3.125 BTC per block from the 6.25 miners currently receive. Every four years, the halving event “halves” block rewards as a deflationary measure for Bitcoin as initiated by Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin’s total supply is 21 million coins, estimated to be completely mined in 2140 AD. According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin’s circulating supply is nearly 19.5 million, which is nearly 93% of the total supply. However, because each halving even cuts block rewards, most estimates project at least 100 years before the blockchain hits 21 million.
Other Points in Favour of a Bitcoin Boost Apart from Halving
Pantera Capital is also bullish on Bitcoin because it has experienced the longest negative year-over-year (YoY) returns since inception. The letter notes that the period lasted 15 months from August 2022 to June 2023. The previous longest period was less than a year, between November 2014 and October 2015. According to Pantera Capital:
“Our view is that we’ve seen enough – there’s just so long markets can be down.”
According to Pantera Capital, more reasons to be bullish on Bitcoin include the recent court ruling in favor of XRP. Last month, a federal judge in the Southern District of New York ruled that XRP sold to retail buyers is not a security. The ruling ended a long period of court battles between blockchain company Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The ruling was also the first time the SEC lost a case on an asset’s security status.
There’s also the likelihood that the SEC will approve asset manager BlackRock’s application for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Following the submission, several stakeholders have said they believe BlackRock would receive approval. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has said the SEC would approve a spot Bitcoin ETF within six months, and would likely greenlight BlackRock. Bloomberg analysts also believe BlackRock has a 50% chance of approval.