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Elon Musk believes that it would be easy for China to surpass the U.S. in economic size. His prediction is not baseless as China is the fastest-growing trillion-dollar economy.
On February 26, the Air Force Association’s Air Warfare Symposium (AWS) began in Orlando, Florida. AWS is a premier event for the aerospace and defense industry that brings together the top leadership of the Air Force and leaders in the industry, academia, and government officials. During the event, the issues and challenges facing Air Force now and in the future are discussed. Among the participants was Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SpaceX founder Elon Musk. On Friday, he spoke on the current political and economic situation and made an interesting statement about the future. Elon Musk predicts that the Chinese economy could surpass the U.S. by at least two-fold. Besides, Musk stressed the importance of innovation in the United States to maintain its leading position over China.
Tesla CEO stated:
“A thing that will feel pretty strange is that the Chinese economy is probably going to be at least twice as big as the United States’ economy, maybe three times.”
Notably, what Elon Musk predicts is not baseless. According to the data of the Nasdaq, the U.S. and China are the world’s largest economies. The U.S., with a nominal GDP of $21.44 trillion, constitutes one-fourth of the world economy. As for China, it makes up 16.38% of the global economy, with a GDP of $14.14 trillion. However, China is the fastest-growing trillion-dollar economy. As Musk has explained, China’s population is about four times larger than the U.S. Therefore, it would be easier for China to surpass in economic size.
“It would only require getting to a GDP per capita half the size the United States for their economy to be twice the size of ours.”
Innovation as a Way to Survive
Further, Elon Musk pointed out the importance of innovation:
“The foundation of war is economics. If you have half the resources of the counterparty then you better be real innovative, if you’re not innovative, you’re going to lose.”
According to Tesla CEO, the U.S. has already faced the risk of falling behind in the space industry.
“This is not something that was a risk in times past but is a risk now. I have zero doubt that if the United States doesn’t seek innovation in space it will be second in space.”
Being innovative to maintain a strong position is currently one of the primary tasks for the U.S. At the moment, the country has not a very good trade relationship with China. But if Musk is right and China is overtaking the U.S., this tension will be even higher.
Elon Musk Shares ‘Secret Sauce’ for Great Achievements
Elon Musk is one of the most influential people in the tech industry, and many wonder what principles he has applied to make impressive accomplishments.
According to Musk, he prefers “first-principles” thinking, where you “boil things down to their fundamental truths and reason up from there, as opposed to reasoning by analogy.” In solving problems, Tesla CEO first identifies the problem and breaks it down to find what is behind. After the fundamental truths are found, “you just need to think of clever ways to take those materials and combine them into the shape of a battery cell.”
“It’s very hard to do. You can’t think that way about everything. It takes a lot of effort, but if you’re trying to do something new, it’s the best way to think. It’s really a powerful, powerful way of thinking.”
“First-principles” thinking, introduced long ago by Aristotle, can be applied to solve all types of problems. Besides, when practiced and mastered, it can help in making important decisions and improving our life.